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MORNING quote EUROPE-Accentuating the favorable at the BOJ

A take a look at the day ahead in European and international markets from Wayne Cole.

Japan isn't in recession. Modifications now put economic growth at +0.1% q/q in the fourth quarter, instead of -0.1%, so nullifying all the media lamentation about Japan's. contraction.

When it pertains to about $4 trillion of yearly GDP such a. small revision is just statistical sound, but it fit the. story of stabilisation that is motivating the Bank of Japan. to consider the end of negative interest rates.

Four sources tell a growing number of policymakers. are warming to the concept of normalising rates this month on. expectations of substantial pay walkings in this year's annual wage. negotiations.

Futures now indicate a 53% chance the BOJ will move rates to. zero at its conference on March 18/19, though some still believe it. may wait to its April 26 conference.

Talk is it will also refine yield curve control to target. the volume of bonds it purchases rather than the yield, which will. probably allow it to gradually assist yields higher and prevent a. convulsive relocation.

Two-year JGB yields have actually already crept up to. 13-year highs of 0.2%, while 10-year yields included 3 bps to. 0.765% - a big move for this market.

There have actually long been worries that rising JGB yields would make. Japanese investors keep more of their mountain of cash in your home,. a potential negative for overseas markets given Japan is the. world's biggest financial institution country.

It could likewise make the yen bring trade - obtaining yen for. complimentary to invest in greater yielding currencies - less appealing. and stir a long-awaited rally in the Japanese currency.

The BOJ has actually made it clear that official rates will only. be going to no and there will not be a series of walkings, so the. death of the carry trade is most likely overstated.

High yields will be a headache for the government, which. faces a steep rise in loaning costs, while the BOJ deals with big. paper losses on the JGBs it holds.

For the Federal Reserve, all eyes will be on Tuesday's U.S. customer rate index (CPI) report for February which is forecast. to rise 0.4% for the month and keep the annual rate steady at. 3.1%. Core inflation is seen rising 0.3%, which will nudge the. yearly pace down to the most affordable since early 2021 at 3.7%.

Utilized cars and truck prices and leas are seen pulling the CPI down,. while insurance and air fares could go the other method.

The slower core would match the softer conditions seen. in the February payrolls report, where unemployment struck a. two-year high of 3.9%, and would keep the Fed on track to cut. rates in the next couple of months.

Secret developments that could influence markets on Monday:

- Involvement by ECB board member Piero Cipollone in. Eurogroup conference in Brussels

- France on-year manufacturer costs for February (prior -5.1%)

(source: Reuters)