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Iron ore to suffer second weekly decline as Trump tariffs weigh

Iron ore futures fell on Friday, heading for a second consecutive weekly loss, weighed down by lingering Sino/U.S. Trade tensions. However, resilient demand, positive economic data, and the hope of further stimulus from China, the top consumer, cushioned this fall.

On China's Dalian Commodity Exchange, the most traded September iron ore contract dropped by 1.76% to $699 ($95.80) per metric ton. This is its lowest price since April 11. The weekly decline was 0.7%.

As of 0706 GMT the benchmark May ore price on Singapore Exchange dropped 0.88%, to $96.95 per ton. This is a decline of 0.2% for this week.

While U.S. president Donald Trump has signaled a possible end to the titt-for-tat hikes in tariffs between China and the U.S. that shocked the markets, all eyes will be on signs more progressive of easing the trade tensions between these two superpowers.

Goldman Sachs analysts predict iron ore prices will fall to $90 in the fourth quarter, and to $80 in the fourth quarter 2026. They cite a return of surplus from the second part of the year.

They said that they expected tariffs to have a negative impact on China's domestic demand as well as steel exports for the rest of the year, and lowered their forecast growth in ex-China seaborne iron ore to 3% from 5%.

The near-term demand for ore remained strong, which limited the price decline. Mysteel's survey on Thursday showed that the average daily hot metal production, which is a measure of iron ore use, was at its highest level in nearly 17 months.

The sentiment was also boosted by a number of Chinese data that were better than expected, and the hope that Beijing would unveil more measures to counteract the U.S. Tariff shocks.

Coking coal and coke, which are both steelmaking ingredients, were down by 0.68% and 0.35 percent, respectively.

The SHFE saw a decline in most steel benchmarks. Rebar fell by 0.81%. Hot-rolled coils dropped by 0.66%. Stainless steel declined by 0.62%. Wire rod increased by 0.48%. ($1 = 7.2961 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)

(source: Reuters)