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Bonds hold steady, shares gain on tariff relief

Bonds hold steady, shares gain on tariff relief

Asia shares rose Tuesday, but futures showed weakness in Europe and America after President Donald Trump said he could grant exemptions to auto-related tariffs.

U.S. Treasury Bonds steadied after staging a recovery over night following last week’s historic selloff. Meanwhile, the dollar continued to lose favour with investors.

Trump said Monday that he is considering a change to the 25% tariffs on imports of foreign autos and auto parts from Mexico, Canada, and other countries. These tariffs can increase the cost of a vehicle by thousands of dollars. Trump stated that car companies need "a little time" to manufacture cars in the United States.

This followed Trump's Friday decision to exempt some electronics, including smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices from his "reciprocal tariffs" in the U.S. His administration stepped up investigations into semiconductor imports after Trump announced on Sunday that he would announce the tariff rate in the coming week.

The Trump administration is also conducting investigations into the importation of pharmaceuticals.

Illiana Jain is an economist with Westpac. She said, "When we see these exemptions flowing through, it helps the markets to think that tariffs aren't going to be something that will be all-encompassing and that they may actually be reprieved."

Shares rose after investors seized on any good news that they could find following last week's massive selling. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan rose 1%.

Japan's Nikkei index rose by 1%. Shares of automakers Toyota and Denso, which makes auto parts, were among the biggest gainers.

Gains were modest as the uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade policy and his back and forth on tariffs continued to cloud markets and global economic outlook.

U.S. Futures fluctuated between losses and gains, closing the last trades lower following an overnight gain in Wall Street.

Nasdaq Futures dropped 0.2%, while S&P futures declined 0.13%. In Europe, EUROSTOXX futures fell 0.1% while FTSE Futures rose 0.12%.

Bank of America, Citigroup and other big banks will be reporting earnings this week. The numbers from chipmaker TSMC will be a highlight later in the week.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index and China's CSI300 blue chip index both declined by 0.2%.

Bharat S. Sachanandani is the head of flow strategies and solutions in Asia Pacific for Societe Generale.

The asset markets seem to indicate that higher prices will lead to a reduction in demand, and the probability of a recession is increasing.

U.S. RATE

After a wild selloff that caused the biggest weekly rise in borrowing costs since decades, U.S. Treasuries managed to hold onto their overnight gains on Monday. Bond yields are inversely related to bond prices.

The benchmark 10-year rate remained at 4,3505% after falling nearly 13 basis points the previous session.

The yield on the two-year bond was also little changed, at 3.8574%. It had dropped 12 basis points Monday.

Analysts have attributed the decline in yields to comments made by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller.

He said that on Monday, the Trump administration’s tariff policies were a major shock for the U.S. Economy and could cause the Fed to lower rates in order to avoid a recession, even if the inflation rate remains high.

Raphael Bostic of the Atlanta Fed Bank, on the other hand, suggested that U.S. Central Bank should remain on hold until more clarity is available.

The markets are pricing in a 84-bps easing of rates by December. Most expect the Fed to keep rates at current levels next month.

The dollar was near its three-year low against the euro, at $1.1356. It was also not far off from the decade-low it had reached against the Swiss Franc.

Sachanandani, of SocGen, said that the U.S. Dollar's behaviour has changed recently. It now ignores rate differentials and responds more to capital flow.

The U.S. Dollar does not like the prospect that U.S. companies will be less profitable and U.S. consumers will face higher inflation. Foreign investors' appetite for U.S. assets is also declining. assets."

The latest exemptions from tariffs announced by Trump helped to boost oil prices. Brent crude futures rose 0.28%, to $65.06 a barrel. U.S. crude oil was up 0.36% at $61.75.

Gold spot was nearing a record at $3,224.56 per ounce.

(source: Reuters)