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Weak Asia refining margins see swing to crude from the Americas: Russell

The profit from turning a barrel of petroleum into fuels in Asia is at the lowest in seven months, which is leading refiners to turn away from costly Middle East grades and look for less expensive options from the Americas.

Refiners are being struck by the double whammy of greater prices from Saudi Arabia, the top exporter and price-setter for much of the crude exported from Middle East, along with soft demand for some refined products, including industrial and transportation essential diesel.

The crack spread, or earnings margin, from making fuels from a. barrel of Middle East benchmark Dubai crude at a common. Singapore refinery << DUB-SIN-REF > ended at $2.27 a barrel on. Monday, below $2.69 on May 10 and the lowest given that Oct. 20.

The margin is down 77% from its peak so far in 2024 of $9.91. a barrel, reached on Feb. 13.

Refining margins have been squeezed in Asia as crude costs. have risen faster than those for refined fuels, with global. benchmark Brent crude futures increasing from a six-month. low of $72.29 a barrel on Dec. 13 to a current high of $92.18 on. April 12, before moderating to end at $83.45 on Monday.

Making it harder for refiners in Asia is the boosts in. official market price (OSPs) for crude from Saudi Arabia,. which stays the leading provider to the world's biggest importing. region.

Saudi Aramco, the state-controlled oil significant,. lifted its OSP for its benchmark Arab Light grade to a premium. of $2.90 a barrel over the Oman/Dubai average for Asian. consumers for June-loading freights.

This was up from a premium of $2 a barrel for May and took. the premium to the highest given that January.

There are signs that Asian refiners are attempting to restrict the. volume of Saudi crude they purchase.

Asia's imports from Saudi Arabia dropped to 4.88 million. barrels each day (bpd) in April, below 5.07 million bpd in. March and 5.52 million bpd in February, according to information. put together by LSEG Oil Research.

Volumes from Saudi Arabia may remain constrained in coming. months, with Chinese refiners anticipated to lower their imports. from there by 5.8 million barrels in June from May's imports of. 45 million barrels, according to sources with understanding of the. matter.

China is Saudi Arabia's biggest consumer in Asia, however has. been surpassed by Russia as the leading supplier to China, as. refiners look for Russian freights that are at reduced rates. since of Western sanctions versus Moscow.

AMERICAS CRUDE RISE

Asia has actually mostly changed Saudi barrels with crude from the. United States and Brazil, according to LSEG information.

Imports from the United States increased to 1.67 million bpd in. April, up from 1.40 million bpd in March and 1.16 million bpd in. February.

Asia's U.S. imports are forecast by LSEG to reach a record. high of 1.76 million bpd in May.

Arrivals from Brazil increased to 1.28 million bpd in April,. up from 1.13 million bpd in March and February's 840,000 bpd.

U.S. and Brazilian crude tends to be priced against U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures, which trade at a. discount to both Brent and Dubai.

WTI closed at $79.12 a barrel on Monday, a discount of $4.78. to Dubai's finish of $83.90.

Even accounting for higher freight charges, crude from the. Americas can go into Asia at costs considerably more affordable than. similar grades from the Middle East.

There are limitations regarding just how much more oil from the. Americas that Asian refiners can take, offered lots of refineries are. set up to run on medium and heavy crude, instead of the. lighter grades normal of U.S. crude.

But within those restrictions it's clear that refiners are. actively attempting to move far from Middle East crudes as much as. possible, a pattern most likely to continue till Aramco decides to. lower its OSPs in order to maintain market share.

The viewpoints expressed here are those of the author, a writer. .

(source: Reuters)