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Morning Bid Europe-Mixing trade wars, economic wars and actual warfare

Morning Bid Europe-Mixing trade wars, economic wars and actual warfare
Morning Bid Europe-Mixing trade wars, economic wars and actual warfare

Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.

Investors are awaiting details about President Trump's economic 'war' on Iran. This has led to a nervous start for the Asian markets. The main move was a drop of 1.5% in the oil price.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will hold a press briefing at 2 pm EST (1800 GMT) on Wednesday to announce even more severe economic sanctions against a country which has been subjected to near-continuous sanctions since 1979's Islamic Revolution.

Trump said that sanctions would also be imposed on any country that supports Iran. However, he never mentioned Russia or China. It will be interesting to see how Bessent avoids the topic in front of the media.

If there is no action taken against?China or India, then the steps would lack credibility, and oil prices could rise. Analysts worry that Tehran could retaliate with attacks on energy infrastructure in Gulf.

Iran has already promised to stop all oil exports out of the Gulf if "the economic war" continues.

The White House is also perceived to be admitting that military action failed and that the conflict would continue indefinitely.

Bessent will also face questions regarding 'his double-buyback plan for Bonds which have, to date, had limited success at calming the Treasury Market. The yields on 30-year bond are currently trading at around 5.25%. This is within striking distance of the 19-year high of 5.3371% that was reached last week.

Many analysts have pointed out that buybacks don't address the debt and deficit problems at their core. They simply swap longer-dated paper for shorter-dated papers, and most likely with higher yields.

Bessent's efforts to loosen financial conditions are at odds with Fed chair Warsh, who seems to rely on the bond markets to tighten policies so that he does not have to increase the cash rate or risk Trump's anger.

Warsh's response to questions about the?buyback at Jackson Hole, on Friday, will be very interesting.

Canada is another country that faces the threat of a full-blown?trade conflict. The?loonie initially dropped in response, but has since recovered most of its loss. At 1.3791, the greenback isn't far from the three-month low of?1.3729.

Carney is betting that adding a war of trade to an already existing one just weeks before the midterm elections will not endear Trump to the consumers who are already irritated by the cost of living.

The tech-heavy markets of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are also awaiting Nvidia’s results, which will be released on Wednesday. Although blockbuster profits seem to be all but assured, they may not meet the high expectations. Options suggest a range of 5,0% to 6,5% after the results.

Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact

Norges Bank Governor Ida Wolden Bache's speech

Chicago Fed Activity Survey for July

(source: Reuters)