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Dollar slips, shares rise as markets reduce Fed rate risk

Dollar slips, shares rise as markets reduce Fed rate risk
Dollar slips, shares rise as markets reduce Fed rate risk

Markets reduced bets on an imminent rate hike by the Federal Reserve after a series of soft U.S. data, which included an 'unexpected drop in the retail sales. According to CME Group's FedWatch, a hike in the next month has been priced at 30%. This is down from 50% a week ago. The STOXX benchmark, which measures 600 large European companies, rose by 0.21%. This followed earlier gains of MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan (which rose 0.5%), while Japan's Nikkei rose by 0.3%.

The Hang Seng index rose 1.6% and Chinese blue-chips gained 0.8% ahead of the release of China's July activity data. Investors may be expecting a surprise, given that the forecasts call for a slowdown in industrial production growth from 5.3% to 4.8%. However, exports soared last month on strong global AI demand. South Korea's stock markets were closed Monday due to a public holiday. The Korean won was relatively calm after U.S. president Donald Trump ordered the Pentagon to reduce the number of joint military exercises with the country. After last week's gains, oil prices are mixed. Iran called on the U.S. on Saturday to accept defeat while Trump encouraged Americans to accept higher gas prices as long as the conflict continues. The Lebanese Health Ministry reported that at least 11 people were killed by Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon Saturday. This is among the highest number of deaths since the agreement between the?country and?neighboring Israel, mediated by the U.S. Brent crude lost earlier gains and was down 0.05% at 0710 GMT, after a 6% rise last week. U.S. oil fell 0.7% to $81.91 per barrel, following a 5.4% increase last week.

The U.S. will try to calm down the situation whenever oil reaches $100. This is the base case, according to Shane Oliver, Chief Economist at AMP.

The risk is that there won't be a sustainable peace deal and the flow of oil out of the Middle East will remain down 10-15% from normal levels. We will also have to pay higher oil prices when reserves run low.

FED RATE risk is diminishing. U.S. stocks are expected to open on Monday with a cautiously positive tone, as Nasdaq and S&P futures both rose 0.5%. Stocks have been boosted by the diminishing risk that the Federal Reserve would?raise rates next month. U.S. Retail sales declined for the first time in nine months and consumer sentiment deteriorated more than expected in July, contributing to low inflation.

Investors will be examining the strength of U.S. consumer spending. Earnings this week are lower, but include?Home Depot and Target. This week, the main data point is the August S&P Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs), which will help gauge whether or not the acceleration of U.S. economic activity at mid-year can be sustained.

Bond yields in the United States fell after a mixed week last week. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury fell 2 basis points to 4.154% after falling 3 basis points to a seven-week-low of 4.0977% last week.

After a 4 basis point increase last week, the yields on ten-year bonds fell 2 basis points to 4.680%.

The dollar has been impacted by the soft data, and the euro hit a two-month peak of $1.1588. Australian and New Zealand dollar also reached 10-week highs at $0.7105 apiece and $0.5910 respectively. Gold prices rose 0.5%, to $4,397 per ounce, after a 0.8% increase last week. Reporting by Lawrence White, Stella Qiu and Stephen Coates. Editing by Jacqueline Wong, Gareth Jones and Stephen Coates.

(source: Reuters)