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Morning Bid Europe- That's a lot to digest

Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.

The 'new quarter' in Asia has been marked by a lack of confidence, partly because the market is digesting the gains from the previous quarter and partly because the U.S./Iran talks have not progressed. Tehran has reportedly refused to meet with President Donald Trump's son in law?Jared Kushner or his envoy Steve Witkoff, who arrived for high-level talks at Doha. The Strait of Hormuz is a very difficult issue. It's unclear how to resolve it. Asian stock markets have been mixed. This follows a quarter in which the Nikkei soared 37%, while the Kospi soared 68%, and the Taiex rose 45%. These gains are dependent on the AI trade working well, but economic data is providing fundamental support. The sentiment among Japan's major manufacturers reached a level not seen since 2018. Manufacturing activity also had its best quarter in 2014 as new orders surged. South Korea's trade numbers were astounding. The country experienced the fastest growth in exports in almost 50 years, in June. Shipments of semiconductors increased by nearly 200%. South Korea is now the fourth country to have a monthly value of exports exceeding $100 billion after Germany, China, and the U.S.

The Wall Street stock futures are slightly in the red following a strong session overnight, led by the usual suspects. This season, which begins the week of July 13, is expected to be a 'bonanza for earnings from these same companies.

Goldman Sachs analysts note that the consensus for earnings per share is a 22% increase over a year ago. AI infrastructure stocks will contribute to nearly 60% of the S&P 500's EPS growth. Micron and Nvidia, together, are expected to account for more than 40%.

Earnings will need to be high enough to counter the appeal of higher bond rates and the possibility of an increase in the cash rate. The yields on 10-year Treasury bonds?rose almost 9 basis points in a selloff on Tuesday that was not triggered by any obvious factor. Investors could be bracing themselves for a surprise tomorrow in the payroll numbers on the upside, further reducing the odds of a Federal Reserve increase. The chance of a move in September is between 67% and 88%, depending on how you calculate Fed Fund Futures. Today, Fed Chair Warsh will be speaking in Sintra. We'll see whether he adheres to his "no-forward guidance" mantra. There's also a new 40-year high for the dollar/yen, 162.82, and no signs of Japanese intervention. The yen is not falling on the crosses. Perhaps Tokyo is willing to wait. There are no major chart levels until the dollar reaches Plaza Accord level?around 240.00 yen. This is a huge gap to fill.

The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Wednesday.

- Fed 'Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at the ECB Forum on Central Banking, Sintra, Portugal, alongside European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, as well as Bank of Canada Governor Tiff MacKlem.

- EU CPI June, EU and US Manufacturing PMIs June

US ISM Manufacturing Survey and Auto Sales for June

(source: Reuters)