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China's data is more important than Australian strikes in lowering iron ore prices
Iron ore prices eased on Monday as?China's disappointing factory gate data fueled concern over the?demand prospects for the?steelmaking?ingredient. However, a strike in Australia at a major export center curbed some decline. The daytime trading price of the most traded iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was 713.5 Yuan ($105.79). As of 0820 GMT the benchmark September iron ore traded on the Singapore Exchange was down 0.26% at $94.75 per ton. This is well below a psychologically important level of $100, which has been in place for 15 trading days. China's producer prices inflation eased more -than-expected in July, to its lowest level in three months. Consumer inflation also cooled as global energy prices?retreated despite U.S. and Israel war against Iran. Steel demand is a major driving force at the moment. Analysts at Galaxy Futures stated that domestic steel consumption may be lower than expected in the manufacturing industry. In the wake of Typhoon Dolphin, torrential rain and storms have hit several provinces on China's eastern coast. This has hampered outdoor activities and steel production. Prices were not affected as many workers at BHP’s Port Hedland operation in Western Australia joined the strike on Sunday. This was the first industrial action at the iron ore hub for a quarter century. In the six months to June, 75% of iron ore exports from Western Australia's Pilbara region were shipped through the hub. Investors and traders were watching to see if both parties would reach an agreement soon or if a later escalation would affect supply. Coke and other steelmaking materials, such as coking coal, have risen by 1.43%?and 0.1% respectively. The steel benchmarks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been largely weakened. Rebar fell 0.43%, while hot-rolled coils dipped 0.12%. Wire rod also dropped 0.67%, and stainless steel gained 0.31%.
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Gold stabilizes after reaching a seven-week high, US inflation data is looming
Gold prices held steady on Monday, after hitting a seven-week high in the previous session. Markets looked at U.S. inflation figures for new clues about the Federal Reserve's rate hike path. As of 0637 GMT, spot gold was unchanged at $4,346.85 an ounce. After a weak U.S. dollar, prices rose to their highest level since June 17, Friday. nonfarm payrolls data. U.S. Gold Futures increased 0.2% on Monday to $4,406.80. The weak U.S. job data reduced fears of a rate hike in the near future and gave metal a boost. This looks like a natural stabilisation. I expect gold will remain supported above $4,300 in the short term," said Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade. The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost jobs in July, and the previously reported job gains from the previous two months have been revised dramatically lower. The futures market has flipped the odds that a rate increase will occur at the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting on September 15-16 from a more likely-than not chance to a less-than-even possibility. Bullion does not earn interest, so a lower interest rate environment makes gold more attractive than income-generating assets. The Consumer Price Index will be released on Wednesday, and the Producer Price Index on Thursday. Waterer said that "soft readings would strengthen a case for a hold in the rate and open a path to further gold upside. Middle East uncertainty is a persistent risk factor as any renewed escalation which drives up oil prices could quickly pressurize the metal." Iran has said that it is close to a final agreement with Oman, defining new shipping routes between them through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the U.S. needs to meet a number of 'conditions' before the strategic waterway can be reopened. Silver spot rose by 0.9%, to $64.09 an ounce. Platinum gained 0.6%, to $1754.65, and palladium fell 0.3%, to $1374.50. Reporting by Ashitha Shivprasad, Bengaluru. Editing by Subhranshu and Ronojoy Mazumdar.
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Caledonia's quarterly profit increases 16% due to higher gold prices
Caledonia?Mining, a Zimbabwe-based company, reported a 16 percent increase in its second-quarter profits after higher gold prices?helped to offset?lower?grades? and output. Gold miner reported on Monday that the net profit attributable shareholders for the quarter ending June 30 had increased from $20.5 to $23.8 million. The average gold price was $4,259 per ounce in the second quarter of this year, a 34% increase. The company that operates the Blanket mine, in Zimbabwe, reported that the output of the mine fell to?17.360 ounces during the first quarter. This is down from a?21.070 ounces for the same period last year. The decline in production was primarily due to lower recoveries and grades. The mine's output is expected to be between 72,000 and76,500 ounces by 2026. Caledonia announced that construction work at its Bilboes Gold Mine will begin in October. The mine will'start producing in 2028 and reach peak production of 200,000 ounces from 2029. This would make it the biggest gold mine in Zimbabwe. Caledonia raised $150 million in Bilboes financing with a 7-year convertible bond offer in January. Caledonia said that prospective lenders are well 'advanced' in their credit and due diligence processes. Caledonia has maintained its quarterly dividend at $0.14 per share. Reporting by Olivia Kumwenda Mtambo, Nelson Banya and David Gooda. Editing by David Gooda.
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Asia stocks hold firm as oil prices edge up in the Gulf crisis
Asian share markets followed Wall Street's lead on Monday, after a weak U.S. employment report reduced the risk of an increase in borrowing costs near-term. However, a lackluster progress in Gulf peace negotiations saw oil prices rise. Iran said?on Sunday? that an agreement with Oman to define new shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz is in its final stages. However, it reiterated that this waterway will only be reopened once the United States meets other conditions. Brent crude increased 0.6% to $84.04 per barrel, as the shipping volume through this vital waterway was minimal. U.S. crude climbed 0.5% to $78.56 per barrel. Fuel costs are on the rise again, raising the stakes in the U.S. consumer price report for July due Wednesday. Analysts expect a 0.1% increase in the headline figure and a 0.2% increase in the core. A positive surprise could reignite speculation about a Federal Reserve hike next month. Michael Feroli is the chief U.S. economics at JPMorgan. He said that "our forecast for core CPI at 0.22% probably isn't firm enough to trigger a Fed hike at their September meeting. However, repeated prints nearer to 0.3% might do it." We are looking for a rebound in the prices of core goods after a two month period in which they have fallen. The futures markets has reduced the probability of a move in September to around 45% from 67% one week ago. Wall Street closed at record highs on Friday as the pullback in interest rate risk helped Treasuries rally. Japan's Nikkei index followed suit, rising by 2.0%. South Korea also added 0.8%. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan grew by 0.7%. The blue chip index in China fell by 0.7% in July after data showed that consumer and producer prices inflation were lower than expected. This underscored the softness in domestic demand. GROWTH IN DOUBLE DIGIT EARNINGS In Europe, EUROSTOXX Futures and DAX Futures both remained flat, while FTSE Futures declined 0.4%. S&P futures rose 0.1% while Nasdaq's futures rose 0.3%. Nasdaq had risen 5% in the previous week after a series of positive earnings reports. Analysts from BofA reported that earnings per share had increased 30% over the previous year, even after subtracting investment gains made by Alphabet and Amazon. The 76% rate of EPS growth was the highest since 2021. In a note, they stated that "AI is still the leader, with median earnings?growth of 28 percent compared to 12% for stocks not related to AI." However, consensus expected AI to slow down to 16 percent next quarter. Analysts at JPMorgan raised their 2026 EPS estimate from $780 to $365. This represents a 35% annual increase. They also increased the price target for S&P 500 to 8,800, up from 7,800. This week's earnings are lower, but semiconductor maker Applied Materials and networking equipment?maker Cisco as well as cloud infrastructure technology provider CoreWeave all have positive results. Bond markets saw yields for 10-year Treasuries a little higher, at 4.662%. The market is bracing itself for $125 billion of new issuance. The U.S. Dollar fell sharply as a result of the drop in yields, and the general improvement in the risk environment. The euro was just a few cents away from its seven-week high at $1.1553. The dollar rose 0.3% against the yen, to 158.35. Investors remained wary about intervening if the yen fell too far. A summary of the opinions expressed at the Bank of Japan's July meeting revealed that policymakers were concerned about rising inflation, which could necessitate a more rapid pace of rate increases than expected. This strengthened arguments for an interest rate hike in September. The drop in yields has helped gold that does not pay interest to hold its $4,333 per ounce price after it had risen more than 7% over the last week. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam, Stephen Coates and Wayne Cole)
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Gold drops from seven-week high as US inflation data is looming
Gold prices fell on Monday, as investors took profits following a seven-week price high. Meanwhile, markets looked at U.S. inflation figures for new clues about the Federal Reserve's rate policy. As of 0443 GMT, spot gold was down 0.3% to $4,330.46 an ounce. After weak U.S. payrolls data, prices hit their highest level since June 17, on Friday. U.S. Gold Futures dropped 0.2% on Monday to $4,390.60. Gold is slightly lower after last week's NFP-inspired gains. This is more of a stabilisation than a significant shift in sentiment. I expect gold will remain above $4,300 in the short term. The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost jobs in July, and the previously reported job growth for the previous two months was revised dramatically lower. The futures market then changed the odds that a rate increase would occur at the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting on September 15-16 from a more likely-than not chance to a less-than-even possibility. Gold is more attractive than other income-generating assets in a low interest rate environment, since it itself does not earn interest. The Consumer Price Index will be released on Wednesday, and the Producer Price Index on Thursday. Waterer said that "soft readings would strengthen the argument for a rate hold and clear a pathway for further upside for gold... Middle East unrest remains a lingering factor as any renewed escalation?that drives up oil prices could quickly pressurize the metal." Iran has said that it is close to a final pact, with Oman, defining new shipping?lanes? between them via the Strait of Hormuz. However, the?U.S. The strategic waterway must be reopened after meeting several conditions. Silver spot rose 0.3%, to $63.77 an ounce. Platinum gained 0.2%, to $1.748.80. Palladium fell 1%, to $1.364.55. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu sahu in Bengaluru. Ashitha Shivaprasad is based in Bengaluru.
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The Strait of Hormuz suddenly becomes 'irrelevant to the US'
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the day will bring for European and global markets. Asian stocks are mostly higher following the Wall Street rally on Friday, but European share futures are down as oil prices rise amid confusion about the Strait of Hormuz. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed over the weekend that the'strait' would become "irrelevant", as oil will eventually be redirected via pipelines. This gave analysts the impression that the White House is trying to wash their hands of this whole matter. Iran announced on Sunday that it was nearing completion of a deal to define new shipping lanes through the Strait with Oman. However, the Iranian government reiterated the fact that the waterway would not reopen until the United States had met certain conditions. This seems unlikely. The Houthis claim that they have re-initiated their attacks against the Red Sea port of Mocha. This will make shippers in the Bab el-Mandeb strait very nervous. Brent crude increased 1% to $84.38 per barrel, as the SoH is still only shipping two tankers on Friday. U.S. crude also rose 0.7% to $78.55. Markets have priced in a 44% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September based on the soft U.S. employment number. However, this could change depending on the results of Wednesday's consumer price data. The median forecast is for an increase in headline prices of 0.1% and core prices of 0.2%. The July retail sales will be released on Friday. Forecasts predict a modest 0.2% increase, but there are downside risks?given that Amazon has moved its Prime Day sale from July to June this year. Wall Street futures are a little lower following a record-breaking close on Friday. Analysts at BofA stated that earnings per share had increased 30% over the previous year, even after taking out investment gains from Alphabet and Amazon. The 76% rate of EPS growth was the highest since '2021. AI stood out, with median earnings growth of 28%, compared to 12% for stocks not related to AI. However, consensus is expecting AI?to slow down next quarter, and fall below 16%. This week's earnings are lighter, but include Applied Materials (a semiconductor company), Cisco (a networking equipment maker) and CoreWeave (a cloud infrastructure technology provider). Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact Investor confidence according to EU Sentix for August Beth Hammack, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, appears
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Oil prices rise in Asia amid Gulf turmoil
The Asian stock markets matched Wall Street's?higher levels on Monday, after a weak U.S. jobs data reduced the risk of an increase in borrowing costs in the near term. However, a lack progress in Gulf peace talks led to a rise in oil prices. Iran announced?on Sunday that an agreement with Oman to define new shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz is in its final stages. However, it reiterated that this waterway will only be reopened once the United States meets other conditions. Brent crude increased 1.0% to $84.40 per barrel, as shipping in the crucial waterway was at a crawl. U.S. crude was up 0.8% to $79.80 per barrel. Fuel costs are on the rise again, raising the stakes in the U.S. consumer price report for July due Wednesday. Analysts expect a 0.1% increase in the headline figure and 0.2% in the core. A positive surprise next month could reignite speculation about a Federal Reserve rate hike. Michael Feroli is the chief U.S. economics at JPMorgan. He said that "our forecast for core CPI at 0.22% probably isn't firm enough to trigger a Fed hike at their September meeting." We are looking for a rebound in the prices of core goods after a period in which they dropped by two months. The market for futures has reduced the probability of a move in September to 44% from 67% just a week earlier. Wall Street closed at record highs on Friday due to the 'pullback of rate risk'. Japan's Nikkei rose 2.0%, while South Korea gained 1.1%. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan grew by 0.8%. Chinese blue-chips fell 0.4% as data revealed that consumer and producer prices inflation in July came in below forecasts, highlighting the softness in domestic demand. DOUBLE DIGIT GROWTH IN EARNINGS In Europe, EUROSTOXX Futures 50 and DAX Futures both fell by 0.1% while FTSE Futures dropped 0.4%. S&P futures were unchanged, while Nasdaq's futures rose 0.2% after gaining 5% in the previous week, amid a series of positive earnings reports. Analysts from BofA stated that earnings per share had increased 30% over the previous year, after Alphabet's and Amazon's investment gains were excluded. The 76% EPS rate was the highest since 2021. They said that "AI is still the leader, with median earnings growth of 28 percent compared to 12% for other non-AI related?stocks. However, consensus expects AI to slow down to 16 percent next quarter." This week's earnings are lower, but still include semiconductor maker Applied Materials and networking equipment maker Cisco as well as cloud infrastructure technology provider CoreWeave. Bond markets saw a slight increase in yields on 10-year Treasuries, at 4.662%. The market is preparing for $125 billion of new issuance this week. The U.S. Dollar had fallen sharply as a result of the drop in yields, and the general improvement in the risk environment. The euro was just a few cents away from achieving a seven-week high at $1.1554. Investors were wary about?intervention if they pushed the yen too low. A summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan's July meeting revealed that policy makers were concerned about rising inflation, which could lead to a faster than expected pace of interest rate hikes. This boosted the case for an increase in September. The drop in yields has helped gold that does not pay interest to hold its $4,320 per ounce price after it had risen more than 7% over the last week. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam, Stephen Coates and Wayne Cole)
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China data shows that iron ore prices are downbeat despite Australian strikes
Iron ore prices were barely changed on Monday as investors considered the impact of a strike in Australia at a major hub for exporting the key steelmaking ingredient against the downbeat inflation figures from China, the top consumer. As of 0323 GMT, the most traded iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was unchanged at 716 Yuan ($106.13). As of 0315 GMT, the benchmark?September ore price on the Singapore Exchange had increased by 0.21% to $95.25 per ton. On Sunday, more workers joined the strike at BHP's Port Hedland operation in Western Australia. This was the first major industrial action in a quarter century. In the six months to June, 75% of the iron ore exported from Western Australia's Pilbara region was shipped through the hub. Investors and traders are watching to see if both sides can reach a deal soon or if an escalation will affect supply. China's producer prices inflation fell more than expected in July, to the lowest level?in three months. Consumer inflation also dropped, as global energy costs retreated, despite U.S. and Israel war against Iran. Coking coal, coke and other steelmaking ingredients grew by 2.23%, and 0.67% respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange steel benchmarks were mostly weaker. Rebar fell?0.23%; hot-rolled coil slipped?0.03%; wire rod dropped 0.46%, while stainless steel gained 0.69%.
Romanian nuclear reactor can operate for nine days with Danube water redirected
Romania's 'only working nuclear reactor' can continue to?operate? for another nine days, after rerouting the flow of water from the Danube River in drought-stricken Romania. Romania has declared an energy emergency for the entire month of August, and is asking households and businesses to reduce their consumption during evening peak hours. Energy ministry blew up a rock obstacle, dredged riverbed and sank four barges with rocks in order to create a dam and redirect water flow. This, it said, has raised water levels around reactor by 4 cm (1.57 inch). The ministry stated that based on the forecasts at the moment, this development would allow the reactor to function for at least nine days.
The level of water in the Danube near its Romanian entrance remained at an all-time low on Monday. However, the state agency for water management has stated that it expects it to rise from 15 August as rain farther upstream?makes its descent.
The Danube's record low water levels have forced the shut down of one reactor. This has affected power production?both in Romania and Hungary upstream. Romania's two nuclear reactors are responsible for 20% of the country's total power production. Romania uses a combination of gas, coal and renewable energy sources to generate electricity. However, it needs billions of Euros in investment for the replacement of ageing facilities and to boost grid interconnections and battery storage.
The European Union has agreed that the country will phase out coal and replace it with gas and renewable energy sources in exchange for funds from Brussels.
The lawmakers did, however, approve an amendment earlier this month that prohibits the country from closing down coal generation. This would revert reforms, and put at risk access to EU funding. (Reporting and editing by Alexander Smith; Luiza Ilie)
(source: Reuters)