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Trump announces that the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve will be refilled with Venezuelan oil
U.S. President Donald Trump announced 'on Sunday' that oil from the recently negotiated deal with Venezuela will be used to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This reserve has been depleted in recent years due to global supply disruptions, and high fuel prices. Trump stated in a post on social media that the "topping-out" process would begin soon, and described the Venezuelan oil as a gift from Venezuela to "the People of the United States." The speed at which the Venezuela deal could deliver oil to the reserves or provide any immediate benefit to U.S. drivers is not clear. The agreement Trump announced Friday is intended to revive Venezuela's battered oil industry. However, it will take significant investment and infrastructure improvements before production can increase substantially. As of August 21, the reserve contained about 290 million 'barrels. This is a 44-year-low after the United States reduced its stockpiles under the Biden and Trump Administrations to respond to global supply disruptions.
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Source: Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan will hold the first meeting of their defence pact.
A Turkish Foreign Ministry source said that top officials from Turkey and Saudi Arabia, as well as Pakistan, will meet in Istanbul Monday to hold the first committee meeting of their joint defence agreement, which they signed this month. Signed on August 7, the "Mecca Joint Defence Agreement" brought together Sunni Muslim U.S. Allies who were concerned about the Iran war and regional conflicts that have led to Iranian missile attacks on Gulf oil exporters. The aim is to increase 'collective deterrence' against any aggression. It stipulates that any armed attack against one of the three countries would be considered an attack against all. This is similar to NATO Article 5 Collective Defence Clause. The source from the ministry said that the foreign and defence ministers as well as chiefs of staff will be attending the meeting in Istanbul. Source: "International security will be on agenda." Discussions are expected to include enhancing defence capability, greater interoperability between their armed forces, and deeper cooperation in the defense industry, including joint development and production. The three nations are concerned about the military positions of Israel and the revolutionary Shi'ite Iran as the U.S., a long-time ally, struggles to contain the regional?upheavals that have caused a global?energy crisis. Negotiations are stuck six months after the U.S., Israel and other countries launched a war against Iran. President Donald Trump has intensified efforts to punish Iran economically with what it calls an "economic D-Day". The pact between the nuclear-armed Pakistan, and top oil exporter Saudi Arabia, is open to expansion, with Egypt as an potential candidate, and does not seek to replace current alliances.
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Niger claims it has regained control of an airbase following a mutiny by soldiers
Niger has regained control over a major military airbase located in Niamey, following an attack on Saturday by mutinous troops. This is the latest challenge for military ruler Abdourahamane Tiani in his struggle to contain the jihadist insurgency. The attack revealed tensions in Niger's armed services, who have repeatedly suffered battlefield losses fighting West Africa's al Qaeda affiliates and Islamic State. Early Saturday morning, gunfire and explosions erupted in Niamey. This included the military airbase as well as the area around the presidential palace. The airbase, located in the same complex of Niamey’s civilian airport, is home to military aircraft, drones, and a counter-terrorism team of the Alliance of Sahel States, which includes Niger. Mali, and Burkina Faso. There are also Italian and Russian forces. Viktor Voropaev said that the Russian Ambassador to Niger Viktor Voropaev stated in an interview on Saturday with TASS, "Africa Corps, a Kremlin controlled paramilitary, has received a request from Niamey for assistance against mutinous protesters." Before Saturday's attack on the airbase, it had already been targeted twice in this year - by the regional Islamic State affiliate in January and by the regional al Qaeda affiliate in June. Niger's state media reported late Saturday that "hundreds" of soldiers were involved in the attack and that it lasted several hours. Forces loyal to Tiani, the military leader, tried to regain power. The footage purported to show mutineers surrendering. The report by the state-run media has not been independently verified. Three security sources reported that the Presidential Guard rallied in Tiani's defense. Tiani hadn't made any public appearances by Sunday. Since a coup in July 2023 that removed President Mohamed Bazoum, Niger has been ruled solely by military officers. SAHEL LEADERS FIGHT AGAINST JEHADISTS Tiani has not made any progress in the fight against jihadists, as have his counterparts from Burkina Faso and Mali. In the past month, 18 soldiers were killed in an attack by an Islamic State affiliate on the military of southwest Niger. Soldiers from Niamey, Tera, Dosso and?Ouallam were involved in the mutineers' operations. The army suffered heavy losses at these locations. Security sources and analysts say that frustration with the government is increasing within frontline units. This creates another vulnerability for Tiani, beyond insurgents. Since assuming power, Tiani’s government has shifted its focus away from?Western allies, deepened ties to Russia, and?broken ties with the regional ECOWAS group. Authorities are tightening control on the uranium industry after seizing assets from France's Orano. Niger was a major supplier of nuclear fuels to Europe. It accounted for 15% of Orano’s uranium at full capacity.
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One dead, several injured, in Swiss shooting incident, police say
Local police reported that a shooting in the?northern Switzerland?killed? one?person? and injured five others, including some seriously. The Aargau cantonal police?said that a manhunt was underway, and?asked the public if they had any 'film or photos of the incident. According to the mass-market 'Blick' tabloid, the incident allegedly occurred at a rave party in the hippodrome. On its website, a video showed successive gunshots. Police have cordoned off large areas of Aarau and increased their 'presence' beyond the town. Switzerland has one of the highest gun ownership rates in Europe, despite violent shootings being rare. In 2019, it tightened its 'gun control laws.
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Nepal-Tibet death count 750 due to Himalayan floods, 3,000 missing
Authorities said that the death toll from the catastrophic floods in Nepal and Tibet last week reached 750 people on Sunday, with another 3,044 still missing. Rescuers were forced to move to higher ground when rains swollen river levels. Rescue operations have been suspended a few times since Friday because of the bad weather. There are also concerns that a mudslide caused by Wednesday's collapsed glacier could cause fresh flooding in Nepal after a lake formed across a border between Nepal and China. According to Red Cross, more than 90 000 people may have been affected by this disaster. China has linked it to climate change. China's foreign minister Wang Yi informed his Nepalese equivalent in a telephone call on Saturday that the mudslide had been their "most serious cross-border catastrophe" in recent times and that rescue efforts were unprecedented in difficulty?and complexity. Rescue efforts are centered on tunnels Nepal's rescue efforts are now focused on hundreds believed to be trapped inside?tunnels in hydropower plants following a torrential downpour of ice and rock. The disaster authority of Nepal reported that 734 people have died in Nepal, 2,498 are missing, and 7,514 have been rescued. As of Saturday night, 16 people were dead in China's Gyirong County and 546 others were missing. Officials in Tibet announced this at a press briefing. In China's first nationality breakdown, the Chinese said that 261 foreigners from a total of?23 different countries were missing from the Tibetan side. This included 104 Nepalese, 49 Indians and 33 Latvians. CCTV reported that Beijing and Kathmandu were working together to find missing citizens, foreign nationals and strengthen their cooperation in disaster mitigation and climate change response. Nepalese Police reported that the water levels in the Trishuli River rose after a fresh rainfall on Sunday, causing residents and rescue workers alike to seek higher ground. Nepal claims it doesn't need foreign assistance for general rescue. However, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lok Bahadur Chhetri stated that the country needs help in areas such as tunnel rescues, DNA testing and refrigerated storage of bodies, as well as forensic identification of decomposed remains. Chhetri stated that Indian and Chinese experts were on the ground to help open tunnels. CCTV reported that the lake, which had formed upstream in an attempt to halt rescue operations, had been drained largely by Saturday night. CCTV reported that drones had detected a landslide on Saturday evening?2.8 km (1.75 miles) downstream from the lake. This landslide formed a new pool of water and a dam. The broadcaster reported that authorities moved?rescue personnel near Gyirong's border to ensure the safety of those crossing. Link to 'LONG TERM EFFECTS of CLIMATE Change' CCTV reported that the flood was caused by "glacier instability due to the long-term impacts of global warming". It was described as a "new, prominent feature of "cryosphere" disasters on the Tibetan plateau. CCTV reported that the mudslide took between six and seven minutes from the Nepalese border to reach the Gyirong?border crossing. The findings of Chinese scientists were cited. Dramatic surveillance footage, shared around the world, showed torrents and debris engulfing building as people fled. China has allocated 220 million Yuan ($32.7 millions) to support relief efforts and mobilised more than 2,100 rescue workers. CCTV reported that China is providing Nepal with emergency cash aid as well as disaster relief supplies, satellite data, tunnel rescue experts, and disaster relief supplies. China began using heavy-lift drones to airdrop supplies and equipment near the border. Soldiers are using drones, life-detection gear and navigation systems to search for the missing.
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China identifies 261 missing foreigners in Himalayan mudslide
China said on Sunday that 261 foreigners from 23 different countries were missing on the Tibetan border with Nepal after a mudslide which ripped through the Himalayan area. The death toll for Tibet is now 16 people. At a press briefing, officials from China's Tibet Autonomous Region stated that the largest number of foreigners missing was from Nepal, with 104. Also unaccounted for were 49 Indians, 33 Latvians, 18 Americans and 15 British nationals. Beijing authorities have informed foreign missions, they said. This was the first nationality breakdown from the Chinese since Wednesday's collapse of a ice sheet?released a torrent of rock, mud, and debris into Himalayan rivers. As of Saturday evening, authorities reported 16 deaths in Gyirong County and 546 missing people. The disaster authority in Nepal reported that at least 675 deaths occurred on the Nepalese side of the border.?2,498 people are still missing, and 7,514 people have been rescued. Residents and rescue workers were reportedly'moved up to higher ground by local police after the water level in the nearby Trishuli River grew over the last few hours. This highlights the danger of further flooding, even while rescue efforts continue. CHINA LINKS GLOBAL WINTER WARMING TO DISASTER Chinese state broadcaster CCTV said the disaster was caused by "glacier instability due to the long-term impacts of global warming". It is "a new and prominent feature of the cryosphere catastrophes" on Tibet's plateau. CCTV, citing Chinese scientists, reported that it took between six and seven minutes for the mudslide to reach the Gyirong crossing from the Nepalese border. The surveillance footage showed that torrents of debris and water were engulfing the buildings as people fled. In a Saturday telephone call, China's foreign minister Wang Yi informed his?Nepalese equivalent that the mudslide had been their "most serious cross-border catastrophe" in recent times, and that rescue efforts were unprecedented in difficulty and complexity. China has mobilised more than 2,100 rescue workers to assist in relief efforts and committed at least 220 millions yuan (about $32.7 million) for the cause. The?state broadcaster also said that it is providing emergency cash assistance, disaster relief supplies and satellite and hydrological information to Nepal. CCTV reported that the countries were working together to identify missing citizens, foreign nationals and strengthen cooperation in disaster mitigation and climate change response. The Red Cross estimates that more than 90 000 people may have been affected.
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Venezuela's interim President says US energy agreement will last 25 Years
Delcy Rodriguez, Venezuela's interim president, said on Saturday that an energy deal with the United States would remain in force for a period of 25 years. The agreement would be in place for 25 years, and aim to increase crude production up to 1.5 million barrels a day (bpd). It will also preserve Venezuela's sovereignty in relation to its natural resources. In a late night address, Rodriguez described the agreement as "historic", saying that it would revitalize the economy and increase government revenues. He also said the deal would help shape the future of the country. Rodriguez told state broadcaster VTV that the project, which spans 25 years, involves 17 strategic oilfields and a target production of 1.5 million barrels a day. This figure is based on the bilateral agreement between Venezuela and the United States. Rodriguez said that the 1.5 million barrels per day target set in the agreement was just an initial goal. The broader plan included the development eight greenfield oil block as part of a larger expansion of the energy sector of the country. Donald Trump announced plans on Friday to have the U.S. take a partial control over Venezuela's vast reserves of oil. He believes that American companies can help the South American nation's energy industry, which has been shattered by the recession. They also believe they can provide a new supply of crude oil to lower U.S. gasoline prices. Trump gave few details about the agreement. He said that the U.S. secured majority control over more than 65 billion bbls of Venezuela's proven reserves of oil through a partnership between private businesses. Venezuela is the country with the largest oil reserves in history, but its production has been far below potential due to years of mismanagement, sanctions and underinvestment. Rodriguez stated that the agreement would generate approximately $209 billion for the Venezuelan government, based upon a benchmark price of $65 a barrel. However, she did acknowledge that crude prices can fluctuate. She said that roughly $19 of each barrel produced and purchased under the agreement would go directly to Venezuela. This would provide a significant boost in government revenue. She stated that the country retains "ownership and sovereignty" of its natural resources "while leveraging the capital, technology, and operational expertise in order to support the recovery and recovery of a strategically important?industry which has been severely impacted by sanctions." On Saturday morning, dozens pro-government groups protested against the U.S. military presence in Venezuela. Rodriguez said that the agreement would boost economic growth and increase revenue for the government following Trump's announcement. Venezuelan officials are preparing to sign next week agreements?granting new rights for oil exploration and production to several companies, including U.S.-based firms. Two sources familiar with the negotiations told us on Friday that Chevron would be among the companies to complete the transition of its Venezuelan joint-ventures into the new energy framework in the country.
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WSJ reports that the US will take a 35% stake in Venezuelan oil mogul Betancourt’s venture.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday that the U.S. Government plans to acquire a 35% passive stake in North American Blue Energy Partners of Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt, citing "people" involved in the negotiations. The WSJ reported that the U.S. plans to also secure preferential rights for the purchase of 20% of the production costs at the company. The Pentagon's Office of Strategic Capital intends to?structure the investment through penny-warrants that would give the U.S. a?equity ownership in the business? without significant capital investments, according to the WSJ. The report was released just a day after U.S. president Donald Trump announced?on Friday? that the U.S. will take 'control' of a fifth of Venezuela’s vast oil reserves. Trump gave few details, saying that the U.S. secured majority control over more than 65 billion barrels (proven) of Venezuela's oil reserves by partnering with private businesses. Sean Parnell, the chief Pentagon spokesperson, responded to a comment request by saying: "The Office of Strategic Capital (OSC), does not own equity stakes in private companies." OSC is only allowed to provide 'capital assistance, in the form a loan, a loan guarantee or technical assistance, including transaction structuring, for developing and funding investments. North 'American Blue Energy Partners and the?White House?didn't respond to comments made outside of regular business hours.
Oil drops the most since years, and gold, yen are also falling.
Brent oil, meanwhile, posted its biggest quarterly drop since 2020 as traders stayed on top of a fragile truce between the United States &?Iran.
The U.S. Dollar was expected to post its fourth consecutive quarterly gain against a basket, pushing the yen down to a low of 40 years, as expectations of U.S. rate hikes changed dramatically on the last day. The greenback gained more than 1% against the currencies of emerging markets as a group throughout the second quarter.
The Strait of Hormuz reopened slowly and randomly on the energy markets as the hostilities between Iran and the U.S. dwindled into a fragile truce, resulting in a drop of almost 40% of the Brent oil price over the last three months.
The equities rally continued for the third quarter as a seemingly unstoppable boom of artificial intelligence stocks led to South Korea's KOSPI rising 68%, and Taiwan's benchmark index increasing 45%. Nasdaq Composite gained more than 21%. The MSCI All-World Index has risen 14% in the first quarter. It reached a new record high this month and is on track to be its best performance quarterly since 2020. Emerging Markets stocks are up by 23% during the period.
The STOXX 600 index in Europe, which has not had as many AI beneficiaries, as other Asian or U.S. indices, still rose nearly 10% during the third quarter. It's been rising every month since march.
David Morrison is a senior market analyst at Trade Nation. "Whenever there is a little selloff, you seem to get a new impetus to purchase."
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 164.85, or 0.32% to 52,347.59; the S&P 500 gained 64.63, or 0.87% to 7,505.06; and the Nasdaq Composite increased 398.23, or 1.54% to 26,218.37.
The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 8.86 points or 0.80% to 1,120.91. The pan-European STOXX 600 rose?0.88% while Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 rose 23.73 or?0.93%. Emerging market stocks increased 17.47 points or 1.02% to 1,724.40. Nikkei, the Japanese stock market index, rose 594.21 or 0.86% to 70,062.32.
Dollar Up The dollar was the biggest winner among developed currencies this quarter, rising 1.4% versus a basket. Emerging market currencies, however, have gained 1.3% against the dollar this quarter.
As markets price in the possibility of Federal Reserve rate increases, the dollar has gained support. The U.S. economy is growing, inflation in the U.S. remains above target and nine out of 19 Fed policymakers expect a rate increase by the end of the year.
James Lord, head of FX and EM strategy for Morgan Stanley, said that the dollar had strengthened since the Fed meeting. This was due to the widening growth differences between the U.S. economy and other major economies, which were amplified because of higher oil prices. "Recent data shows that the U.S. is performing better than the eurozone. Growth indicators in the eurozone have been relatively softer," said James Lord,?head of FX EM strategy at Morgan Stanley. The European Central Bank annual meeting takes place in Sintra, Portugal this week. Gold's 14% drop in a quarter, the largest in over a decade is partly due to the dollar's increase. The yen, on the other hand, has fallen to its lowest point in 40-years, trading at 162.38 to dollar, Tuesday. The possibility of a Japanese intervention was causing traders to be on edge. Finance Minister Satsuki Catayama issued another warning.
Katayama’s comments avoided the verbal escalation which often precedes an effort to buy, instead reiterating authorities are ready to respond anytime, said Karl Schamotta. Chief market strategist at Corpay.
Schamotta noted that "the Thursday non-farm payrolls and the Friday Independence Day holiday, when U.S. liquidity will be dramatically thinned out, could offer attractive opportunities to wrong-foot speculative positions." Brent crude futures settled at $72.92 a barrel, 0.3% lower than the previous day. The contract has seen its third consecutive monthly decline. It was down more than 20% in June, and 38% for the entire quarter. U.S. crude oil was on course to drop 31% this quarter. However, both Brent and WTI have been close to 20% higher so far in the year.
The market may not have priced in a risk premium but the increased number of ships leaving the Gulf has created a temporary surge of new supply. This was said by UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
Morgan Stanley has said that it models a global oil surplus of 4.8 millions barrels per day by 2027.
(source: Reuters)