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Russell: The impact of the closure on Chinese EVs is not limited to oil, but also extends beyond it.
The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz may not seem to have much in common with the Indian diet cola consumers, but both are at risk. The world economy will be affected by the second and third round effects of the closure. This is because the price of refined fuels like gasoline and diesel has already increased. Electric vehicles (EVs), which allow drivers to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels, are widely considered one of the biggest winners in the current conflict between Iran and the United States. But EVs have a direct connection to the Strait of Hormuz, as their batteries are made from sulphuric acids. This is a component used in the extraction of nickel and lithium. The high-pressure acid-leach method is essential for the extraction of battery-grade Nickel from ore in mines in Indonesia, which is the world's largest producer of metal. Copper is produced in Australia from lithium, which is extracted from hard rock. Before the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran on February 28, about half of the world's seaborne sulphur passed through the Strait of Hormuz and mainly went to Asia. The main suppliers of sulphuric acids are Middle East countries like the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. Bulk carriers usually transport sulphur, and volumes through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed since the beginning of the Iran Conflict. According to commodity analysts Kpler, only 30,000 metric tonnes made it out of the Strait in April compared to 180,000 tons in march. Kpler reported that this was a decrease from the average of 1.27?tons per month during the three months before the beginning of the conflict. Delivered prices to Asia have risen by 50% since the beginning of the war, reaching $880 per ton. Sulphur prices are rising, which will increase costs for nickel, lithium, and copper miners. But the greater concern is a possible supply shortage. The risk is that some miners may have to cut back production if they cannot obtain enough sulphuric acids. RISE IN CONCERN The sulphuric-acid supply is becoming increasingly difficult to secure on a long-term basis, according to several mining executives from Indonesian and Australian companies that attended the Asian Battery Raw Materials Conference held in Hanoi last month. China's EV makers and battery manufacturers are vulnerable to any disruption in the supply of lithium, as well as nickel produced by HPAL. Alternatives to sulphuric acids are available, but are not suitable for producing battery-grade Nickel. For copper and lithium, they require more energy to produce smaller volumes. Although the processing of metals has not reached a crisis, it will be closer to one as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. This raises the issue of what Beijing will do if a serious threat is made to its EV industry and battery industry. The logical step would be to increase pressure on both Iran, its ally, and Donald Trump in the United States to reach an accord that at least reopens all traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Other impacts, other than crude oil and LNG, are already felt. Before the Iran war, about 8% of the global aluminium supply passed through the Strait of Hormuz. This has now largely stopped. Kpler data shows that 20,000 tonnes of lightweight metal left the Strait of Hormuz in April. This is down from the average of 1,26 million tons during the three months before the beginning of the war. Diet Coke is now in short supply due to the tightening of aluminium supplies in India. This is a 'inconvenience' for Diet Coke consumers, but it also shows how shortages can occur in unexpected places, disrupting supply chains and leading to higher prices. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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ABB invests $200 million to produce medium voltage equipment in Europe
ABB, the Swiss engineering group, announced on Monday that it would invest $200 million in Europe to increase production of medium voltage grid equipment to meet growing power demands from data centres, electric cars, and industry. ABB stated that the investment will increase production capacity of distribution equipment used to supply power networks for factories, hospitals, and large buildings. The three-year program includes $100 million towards a new factory at Dalmine in northern Italy and another $100 millions to expand factories in Bulgaria, Finland?Germany?, Norway?and Poland? ABB will be able to increase its European production capacity of?medium voltage products by 50% to 300% depending on product lines, and this investment is expected create approximately?800 new jobs. ABB Distribution Solutions head Adrian Guggisberg told the company that it was responding to a huge increase in demand by utilities and grid operators. ABB supplies many of Europe’s largest utilities, including Germany’s E.ON and France’s Enedis (part of EDF). Guggisberg stated that the demand for electrification was increasing. He said that the changes reflected included the construction of data centres for?supporting artificial intelligence?, the increased use of electric cars and?heat pump?, as well as the decarbonisation in industry. Guggisberg said that there was a greater demand for heating, cooling and onshoring. By 2030, electricity is expected to represent nearly 30% of the final energy consumption. This compares with a current usage of?about 20%. According to the International Energy Agency, electricity demand is growing faster than total energy consumption. Guggisberg stated that this increased the demand for medium voltage equipment. (Reporting and editing by Dave Graham).
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INDIA BONDS - India bonds mirror US debt loss as stalled US/Iran talks lifts oil
Indian government bonds fell early on 'Monday', following U.S. Treasuries. Traders reduced their positions due to?concerns about broader economic risks, after recent U.S. - Iran peace talks failed?and pushed oil prices up. At 10:15 am IST, the benchmark 6.48%?bond?yield for 2035 was 6.2 basis points higher at 7.0437% compared to Friday's closing. The yield of the new 10-year bond, 6.94% 2036, was up 5.2 basis points at 6.9920%. The sudden rejection by President Donald Trump of Iran's response to the U.S. Peace proposal has lifted oil prices on Monday. This is raising fears that this 10-week conflict will continue and paralyze shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures rose by 3.21% in Asian trading to $104.54 per barrel. They have been above $100 over the past three weeks. India's heavy dependence on crude oil imports - about one-fourth of its total import bill - could cause inflation, harm growth and increase the current account deficit. India's state-controlled?refining industry has kept fuel prices stable despite rising crude costs. The sector lost about 100 Indian Rupees ($1.05) per litre of diesel and 20 rupees for gasoline. A trader with an asset manager stated that if oil prices continue to rise, the government may be forced to raise oil company prices. The traders have also become more cautious since Prime Minister Narendra modi suggested that people return to the office from home or online meetings. He said this would help India use less petrol. Separately the market is waiting for the April inflation report, due on Tuesday. It's likely to have moved closer to the central banks 4% target, from the 3.40% it was in March, according a survey of economists. Economists said that a rise in LPG prices would likely have impacted April's consumer prices. India's overnight swap rates increased as inflation fears grew and rate-hike betting increased. The two-year swap rate increased 10 bps, to 6.23%. The five-year OIS was up 9 bps at 6.6475%.
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Ambani's Jio Platforms IPO pivots to pure fundraising, no investor exits, sources say
Sources say that Mukesh ambani's company Reliance Jio has shifted to a pure fundraiser for its planned Mumbai listing, selling 2.5% of the shares and abandoning earlier plans which would have allowed shareholders to exit. Investors include Alphabet, Google, and Vista Equity Partners, as well as Indian billionaire Ambani’s Jio Platforms. Jio Platforms is the second largest?telecom company in terms of users, after China Mobile. One source said that investors were not interested in selling and wanted to remain invested for the long-term. The company 'had earlier held discussions with 'its foreign investors to each sell 8% their individual holdings of the IPO. The IPO had been originally planned as an offer for sale, which meant that no new fundraising was planned and existing investors were only to exit when the company went public. The Economic Times was the first to report 'the company’s plans to pivot and raise fresh funds with a new offering on Monday. The listing is a key part of Ambani’s long-term plan to transform Reliance into a "everything" company, encompassing consumer, retail and technology. Jio Platforms didn't respond to our request for comment.
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New Zealand's state-owned farming supports the nature credit market
The New Zealand state-owned farm Pamu says it will convert 600 hectares (1.483 acres), of farmland, into a?native?forest in order to generate high quality nature credits. This follows a move by the government on Monday to encourage a voluntary market for nature credits. New Zealand's Emissions Trading Scheme favors pine forestry, which grows faster than native trees. Native forests grow slower and are less attractive to carbon investors. Large-scale pine plantations have sparked a debate about erosion, pest control and land-use changes. In the coming months, new native reforesting initiatives will be able to choose a path that is assessed by an independent assurer. The government also said it would recognise schemes accredited by respected international bodies. The goal is to direct funding towards projects that restore ecosystems and remove greenhouse gasses. Pamu, a 365,000-hectare farm network, signed a contract with True Nature (an independent non-profit) to explore native forest regeneration on its less productive or vulnerable lands. The restoration could generate credits under this proposed framework. Annabel Davies, Pamu's Nature Investment Officer, said: "For many years, farmers have generally?talked? about ineffective acres. Pamu believes that these are not ineffective acres... So this is about realising the value of those areas." True Nature said it would use nature credits in order to expand the work of Trees that Count. The non-profit has been funding native reforestation initiatives with high integrity, funded by philanthropy. The credits will meet the criteria of the Integrity Council for Voluntary Carbon?Market, and they will be sold to both domestic and international buyers. True Nature Chief Executive Robyn Haaugh stated that "to date, New Zealand doesn't have anyone restoring land or generating credits from New Zealand based projects." Haugh explained that the project "solves a problem for the private sector - for large companies who want to offset their emissions and meet their targets (for carbon reduction), and for landowners who wish to restore land, but do not have the capital or funding to do so." True Nature announced that it would be using a "grouped project" model in accordance with an international voluntary standard for the carbon market. This will allow sites of different sizes and types to be combined into one project. This could help landowners reduce their?technical and legal costs. The work would be focused primarily on marginal or unproductive land. This includes riparian areas and steep slopes. It will also include areas that are prone to erosion. "Our goal is to have native reforestation work with traditional farming operations. Haugh explained that native reforestation can work alongside traditional farming operations, but not necessarily replace them. Lucy Craymer, Wellington reporter; Lincoln Feast, Wellington editor.
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Dollar gains, but share futures are a little erratic as Iran talks falter
Dollar prices rose in Asia on Monday as signs of a deadlock between Iran and the United States led to the closure of 'the Strait of Hormuz, which is vital for oil exports. U.S.?futures? shook and in Asia, gains in AI-related stocks helped share markets in Seoul as well as mainland China. Donald Trump rejected Iran's response on Sunday to the U.S. proposal to hold peace talks in order to end the conflict, calling Tehran's demands "totally unacceptable." Iranian media reported that an Iranian plan sent to Washington stressed the need to end the war on all sides and lift sanctions against Tehran. It also called for?reparations' and recognition of Iran’s control over the Strait. Bruce Kasman noted that the conflict in the Middle East has now entered its "11th week". Energy prices are up, but they remain at levels which are more of a headwind than an obstacle to expansion. Our commodities team expects to see operational stress levels beginning in June. Since the start of the war in late February, Iran has effectively closed the Strait. This is a corridor which normally transports a fifth of the oil and gas around the world. Brent oil futures rose quickly in Asian trade by 4.3% to $105.47 per barrel. U.S. crude oil gained 4.7%, to $99.92 per barrel. The dollar gained 0.33% against the Japanese yen, reaching 157.16yen, while the euro fell 0.24%, to $1.1757. Japan bets that a shift in hawkishness at the Bank of Japan, and the endorsement of U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent will give the yen buying intervention an extra boost and help?slow down the embattled currencies slide. The U.S. and Europe are both major oil importers, whereas Japan is the net exporter. S&P futures fell 0.1% while Nasdaq's futures fell 0.05%. Shares hit record highs last week, thanks to a strong payrolls report and upbeat corporate earnings. Cisco, a manufacturer of networking equipment, and Applied Materials, a maker of semiconductor equipment are among the companies that have announced their results this week. Nvidia, Walmart and other heavyweights are expected to be announced later this month. Japan's Nikkei fell 0.36%, erasing earlier gains. The KOSPI, which is heavily influenced by South Korea's chipmakers, rose 4%. China's blue-chip index?CSI300 rose 1.4%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.3%. On Monday, data showed that China's producer price jumped 45 months to the highest level in history. Consumer inflation also increased due to higher global energy prices. Trump will visit China on Wednesday and meet Chinese President Xi 'Jinping for their first face-to -face meeting in over six months. As they consider extending an important minerals deal, trade, Taiwan, artificial Intelligence, and nuclear weapons will all be discussed. Gold fell 0.5% on commodity markets to $4,690 per ounce, despite the fact that it was not widely regarded as a safe-haven or a hedge against inflation. (Reporting by Wayne Cole, Editing by Edmund Klamann & Shri Navaratnam).
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Iron ore prices rise for the sixth consecutive day, thanks to positive Chinese data
Iron ore futures rose for a sixth session on Monday, boosted by a number of positive data from China, the world's largest steel consumer. Lower steel exports will 'help rebalance prices and margins at steel mills. As of 0257 GMT, the most traded September iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was trading 1.16% higher. It was 826 yuan (US$121.56) per metric ton. The benchmark June Iron Ore on the Singapore Exchange is now $111.8 per ton, a 1.24% increase. Customs data showed that China's exports of steel fell by 9% from April last year. China exported 9.5 million tons of steel in April, up by 4% compared to March but still down on the record pace set last year. Steel prices and steel mill margins are pushed up by lower steel exports. Imports of iron ore in April were down 0.8% compared to the previous month, as steel margins shrank. This slowed the demand for this key ingredient. Last month, the world's biggest iron ore consumer imported 103.9 million tonnes. This is down from 104.74 millions tons in March and 103.14 in 2025. According to data from Mysteel, the average daily output of hot metal, which is a measure of iron ore demand, increased by 4.6% in April. Portside inventory Data from consultancy Steelhome revealed that iron ore inventories at major Chinese?ports fell by 0.79% week-on-week, according to data released on Friday. According to Steelhome's data, the iron ore stock at China's major?ports fell by 0.79% from week to week. Coking coal and coke are also up on the 'DCE, at 1% and 1.68 % respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have mostly risen. Rebar rose 0.61%; hot-rolled coils hardened by 0.57%; and wire rod increased by 1.12%. Stainless steel, meanwhile, fell by 0.16%.
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As US-Iran talks fail, gold falls due to inflation fears caused by oil.
Gold prices fell Monday as a lack progress in the 'U.S. - Iran peace negotiations' pushed up?oil?prices, fueling concerns that inflation could continue to keep interest rates high. As of 0223 GMT, spot gold was down 0.6%, at $4,684.32 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery fell 0.8% to $4,692.70. Dollar strengthened, causing greenback-priced gold to be more expensive for holders other currencies. U.S. president Donald Trump rejected Iran's response on Sunday to a U.S. peace proposal, destroying hopes of an imminent end to this 10-week conflict which has caused extensive damage in Iran and Lebanon and paralyzed the maritime traffic?in the Strait of Hormuz and driven up the global energy prices. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said: "We are essentially witnessing a dissipation of hope in an imminent?peace?deal. Gold is feeling the pinch due to the renewed rise in?crude?prices." Oil prices rose as the Strait of Hormuz was largely closed and global energy supplies were tight. Increasing crude oil prices could lead to higher inflation, which would increase the likelihood of high interest rates. Gold is often seen as a hedge to inflation. However, rising interest rates can weigh down on this 'non-yielding' asset. According to a report by the Federal Reserve released on Friday, the ongoing war with Iran has pushed oil prices and supplies to the top of financial stability concerns. Investors will be watching the U.S. Consumer Price Index for April, which is due this week, to get a better idea of how the Fed intends to orient its monetary policy. China's gold output fell by a quarter in the first three months of 2026 compared to a year ago, according to the China Gold Association. Safety inspections forced some smelters to suspend production. "In the ?near-to-medium term, the $4,400 to $4,800 range still looks ?firmly in play while we remain in this ceasefire-without-a-peace-deal stalemate," Waterer added. Silver spot rose by 0.7% to $80.88 an ounce. Platinum fell 0.6% to 2,042.71, while palladium dropped 0.4% to $1,484.99. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich in Bengaluru)
Morning bid Europe-Peace advances stalls and AI rally fails
Tom Westbrook gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.
The markets still 'want to believe' that neither Iran nor the U.S. aims to escalate their conflict. The path to resolution is still as unclear as ever, despite a new round of hope that 'little' experienced over the weekend.
The distance between the two parties is evident in the rejection of the Iranian peace proposal by U.S. president Donald Trump as "totally unacceptable". The dollar rose and oil prices increased by more than 4% during the Asia session.
Iran released on Sunday a proposal to end 'the war on all sides. It included a request for compensation for damages caused by war and emphasized Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
The U.S. proposed that the fighting should stop before talks could begin on other, more controversial issues such as Iran's nuclear program.
S&P futures slid lower after the news, while European futures remained flat. However, it was the artificial intelligence sector that drove equities.
South Korean shares soared by almost 5%, reaching new'record highs.
Keir starmer, the British prime minister, will start a political retaliation in a speech on Monday. He will say that rebuilding relationships with Europe will be the government's main mission as he moves against growing calls for?quit.
Data from China showed that producer prices in April exceeded expectations to reach a 45-month peak, adding more pressure to manufacturers who are already struggling with weak demand at home. U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent is in Japan to discuss the yen after recent Japanese interventions.
According to U.S. official previewing Trump's upcoming?two-day trip to China, Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will discuss Iran, Taiwan and AI as they 'weigh extending a crucial minerals deal.
Cisco, a maker of networking equipment for the tech industry, and Applied Materials, a manufacturer of semiconductor equipment? are amongst those releasing results this week. Nvidia, Walmart and other heavyweights are due to report their results later this month.
SoftBank's and Nippon Yusen's after-market results from Tokyo will be released on Monday, along with the U.S. home sales data.
Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact
Earnings: SoftBank, Nippon Yusen, Fox Corp
Economics: U.S. home sales
(source: Reuters)