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Oil prices soar, while stocks sway as the Mideast ceasefire is in doubt
Stock?futures dropped and oil prices rose on Monday, as tensions in the Middle East prevented shipping into and out of the Gulf. Traders held out hope that a solution would be found and the?Asian stock markets soared to record highs. Brent crude futures increased by about 5%, to $95.16 per barrel. S&P 500 Futures dropped around 0.6%, and European Futures dropped 1.1%. Equity benchmarks in Seoul and Taipei, as well as Tokyo, shrugged off the risks and advanced, with Taiwan shares reaching a new record high, and the others not far behind. Iran has reinstated its de facto closing of the Strait of Hormuz despite Kpler data showing that over?20 vessels with oil products, metals and gas, as well as fertiliser, passed through the chokepoint on Saturday. This was the busiest time for the chokepoint in March. The ceasefire in the Iran War, which was supposed to last until Tuesday, is now under question after the U.S. seizes an Iranian cargo vessel and the top military command of Tehran vows?to retaliate. Damien Boey is a portfolio strategist with Wilson Asset Management in Sydney. "But, I think, in the end, both sides are looking to make a deal. That's why the market is optimistic and hasn't?sold off too much." Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.8%. Japan's Nikkei rose 1%. South Korea's KOSPI grew 1.4%. National Australia Bank, Australia's biggest business lender, warned that the war would increase bad debts. It announced a $500-million impairment charge. PACE TALKS IN QUESTION, FOCUS ON HORMUZ Iran's state news agency reported that Iran had rejected any new peace talks after Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said he would send envoys to Pakistan for talks and launch new attacks on Iran if it did not accept his terms. "Our base-case (AKA guess) still remains a resolution of the war. Trump remains 'focused' on the November midterm elections, said Paul Chew in a note to clients from Phillip Securities. Bonds that had rallied on Friday have retreated, and the yield of benchmark 10-year Treasuries has risen 2.2 basis points, to 4.266%. The dollar, which has been sold over the last two weeks, is now steady at 158.8 yen per euro and buying 158.8 dollars. Wall Street indexes reached record highs last Friday, fueled by expectations for robust first-quarter results, with the majority of them coming this week. The week will also bring British inflation, U.S. retail and purchasing managers' index data. However, the markets' main focus is on Gulf shipping. Bob Savage is the head of BNY's markets macro strategy. He said that "the critical barometer of risk?has been reduced to one data point, which is the number of ships passing through Strait of Hormuz". The immediate focus of the talks is oil and other shortages that are driving inflation.
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Gold drops on stronger dollar amid renewed US/Iran tensions
The 'dollar strengthened on Monday, and gold prices fell. Meanwhile, news that the 'Strait of Hormuz was closed again drove oil prices up. Inflation fears were revived by the news that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed once more. As of 0155 GMT spot gold was down 0.4% to $4,809.71 an ounce after reaching its lowest level since the April 13 session earlier in this session. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery fell 1% to $ 4,829.40. Ilya 'Spivak is the head of global macro at Tastylive. He said that gold prices were lower today after the U.S. - Iran war ceasefire, which markets celebrated last Monday, appeared to have broken down. "This has brought back the familiar 'war-trade' dynamics that we have seen since the start of the conflict. Crude oil prices rose, which led to an increase in inflation expectations and drove both yields and U.S. dollar. dollar." Dollar?index increased, making bullion priced in greenbacks more expensive for holders of other currencies. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields increased by 0.5%. As tensions in the Middle East increased, shipping into and out of Gulf was kept to a minimum. The U.S. seized a cargo ship from Iran that was trying to circumvent its blockade, and Iran has said that it will retaliate. This raises the possibility that the ceasefire agreement between the two nations may not last the full two days that it is supposed to be in place. Tehran has said that it will not take part in the second round of talks, which was to be held by the United States. The United States had hoped that the second round of negotiations would begin before Tuesday's ceasefire expired. Since the U.S. launched its strikes against Iran in late-February, gold prices have fallen by about 8%. This is due to fears that higher energy costs could cause inflation and raise global interest rates. Gold is considered an inflation hedge. However, rising interest rates reduce the demand for this non-yielding investment. Christopher Wong is a strategist with OCBC. He said: "In the meantime, we expect gold's direction to be influenced by broader risk sentiment, and that this will depend on how ceasefire talks go." Silver spot fell by 0.5%, to $80.36 an ounce. Platinum was unchanged at $2,103.38 and palladium dropped 0.1%, to $1,556.45.
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Viva Energy expects lower Geelong production in the short term following fire and share slide
Viva Energy, Australia's largest refinery operator, said that it expected its Geelong facility to produce diesel fuel and jet fuel around 80% and petrol around 60% of its capacity in the near future after a fire last week at the complex. The fuel retailer's shares fell 9.5% to A$2,29, the lowest level since March 19. Trading resumed on Thursday after a stoppage. The fire that broke out at Australia's largest refinery on April 15, has affected petrol production as the nation is under pressure to ensure fuel security due to the Iran war, which is disrupting global supply. Viva reported that the firm's residue catalyst cracking unit (RCCU), which is currently offline, will be taken off line until operations are stabilized. The company expects the RCCU to be restarted in the coming weeks, and production of diesel, petrol, and jet fuel will reach over 90% capacity. It is also investigating the cause of this 'incident. The company did not provide any further details on the timeline. Separately the fuel retailer reported that its 'Geelong refinery margin' jumped?nearly a three-fold during the first quarter. It also reported a 5.1% increase in the total sales volume of the group. The firm said that it had signed agreements with the federal government to purchase additional cargoes above and beyond its normal needs. Viva Energy stated that Geelong doesn't?typically" use Middle Eastern crude and that supplies from?Americas?, Southeast Asia? and Australia?remained unaffected.
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Oil recovers losses after Strait of Hormuz closed again
The oil prices rose more than 6% Monday after falling more than 9% on Friday. This was due to the news that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed once again. Both the U.S. Brent crude futures rose $6.11 or 6.76% to $96.49 per barrel at 2327 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate is now $90.38 per barrel, an increase of $6.53 or 7.79%. U.S. president Donald Trump said on Sunday that the U.S. military had seized an Iranian ship which tried to break its blockade. Iran, however, refused to participate in the second round of talks despite Trump’s threat of resuming airstrikes. The United States maintains a blockade on Iranian ports.?Iran lifted its blockade and then reimposed it, affecting the Strait which, before the start of the war, handled about one-fifth the world's supply of oil. Saul Kavonic is the head of research at MST Marquee. He said that oil markets are gyrating in response to the fluctuating social media posts from the U.S. The two contracts experienced their biggest daily declines on Friday since April 18, after Iran announced that passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz would be open during the remaining ceasefire period. Trump also said Iran had agreed to never again close the strait. Kavonic stated that the announcement of opening the Strait was premature. "Ship owners won't be as confident about announcing a passage through the Strait to ship owners again." Kpler data revealed that more than 20 ships crossed the strait Saturday, carrying metals, liquefied gas, and fertilizers. This was the most vessels to cross the waterway since the beginning of March.
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Oil prices jump and stock futures fall as Iran tensions unnerve markets
Investors were dealing with contradictory messages about the Iran war, and the news that the Strait of Hormuz had been closed again. Early Asian trading saw Brent crude futures jump about 7%, to $96.85 per barrel. S&P futures fell about 0.9%. The dollar weakened around 0.2% and the yen slipped to 158.95 per euro. Iran's state news agency reported that it rejected new peace negotiations with the United States on Sunday. This was hours after U.S. president Donald Trump announced he would send envoys to Pakistan for talks and launch new attacks on Iran if they did not accept his terms. The tensions increased after the U.S. announced that it had seized a cargo ship from Iran which was trying to circumvent its blockade. The dollar has risen from the lows that it reached on Friday, when Iran announced it would open up the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices and stocks tumbled. "While the news of the Strait?of Hormuz re-closing is clearly not good; ships being attacked, and Trump's threats against Iranian infrastructure are not good either, the market is very much looking this as a situation where, when it comes down to it, both sides are still speaking," said Michael Brown. Senior research strategist at the Pepperstone?in London. "From a equity perspective, I would probably say that we unwinded a good chunk of the gains we saw on Friday, which was in hindsight the?market getting ahead of itself." Stocks and bonds surged on Friday as Iran announced it would open up the Strait. Oil prices also fell, as investors betted on the end of a seven-week conflict that had closed the Strait of Hormuz – a vital artery of global crude and natural gas shipments. Brown said: "Now that Hormuz has been closed again, after being open for about 12 hours, you would probably expect the majority of the moves that we saw Friday (in bonds), to be unwinded." If it's confirmed that Iran won't be attending (the talks), we'll see a more risk-averse response than what we're currently seeing. The markets rallied last week Wall Street indexes reached'record highs' on Friday, while bonds - which, unlike stocks, are still far away from recovering from their losses from the war - surged as oil prices fell and investors reduced bets about rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England. U.S. stock prices have been supported by the expectation of robust first quarter earnings, with the majority of them coming this week. On Friday, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield in the United States reached its lowest level since mid-March. Dollar index fell to its lowest level in seven weeks as safe-haven assets lost their shine late last week. The index measures the greenback versus a basket including the yen and euro. The dollar index was 0.2% higher in Asian trading on Monday morning. "The market may be getting ahead of themselves." The Nasdaq's 13-day rally is extreme. "The dollar index has declined for nine out of the last 10 sessions," Marc Chandler, of Bannockburn Capital Markets, said in a Sunday note.
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Sales of electric vehicles soar on major European markets as drivers avoid expensive petrol
In the first quarter of 2026 sales of electric cars jumped almost a third on the main European auto markets, as consumers sought alternatives to combustion engines after the war in Iran caused the highest spike in petrol prices for years. Data collected by the trade association E-Mobility Europe, and research firm, New Automotive, on Monday showed that new battery-electric vehicle registrations (BEVs), a proxy of sales, increased 29.4% in comparison to a year earlier, reaching almost 560,000 during the first quarter. They were also up 51.3% in March, with over 240,000 vehicles registered in 15 European markets. The ACEA auto lobby has revealed that last year, these markets accounted 94% of BEV'sales? in the European Union, and the European Free Trade Association. These countries are aligned with EU laws regulating CO2 emissions. In a recent statement, E-Mobility Europe secretary general Chris Heron stated that "March's surge in electric car sales is one of Europe's largest recent gains in energy safety in a time when oil dependency has become a vulnerability." According to a joint statement by the two organisations, the half-million BEVs that were registered in the quarter would be enough to reduce oil usage by 2,000,000 barrels per annum. It said that the five biggest EV'markets' in Europe - Germany France Spain Italy and Poland -- have seen BEV sales grow by more than 40% this year. The report estimated that 21,2% of new 'cars' registered in EU and EFTA were electric. New Automotive, in an earlier report, published in April, said that BEV registrations in Britain, Europe's largest BEV market, after Germany, increased 12.8% during the first quarter. This was also helped by the rising price of petrol, and represented 22.5% new car sales.
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Exit polls show that Bulgaria's pro Russian former president is leading in the election.
Exit polls indicate that the 'party' of Bulgaria's pro Russian former President Rumen Radev is likely to win Sunday's parliament vote. He has campaigned to stamp out corruption, and to end a spiral weak, short-lived government. However, as it stands, he'll need coalition partners in order to run a majoritarian government. Radev is a eurosceptic ex-fighter pilot who opposes the military support of Ukraine's war against Moscow. He stepped down as president in January in order to run for the election. This comes after mass demonstrations forced the previous government out in December. The Balkan nation of approximately 6.5 million voters held its eighth election in just five years. Voters are tired of a small grouping of experienced politicians who are widely perceived as corrupt. However, no single party has managed to gain enough support. Alpha Research, a Sofia-based firm, conducted the final exit poll. It showed Radev’s?Progressive Bulgaria at 38.1%. This was far in front of the GERB, led by Boyko Borissov as former Prime Minister, which came in second with 15.9%. Other exit polls showed different percentages, but all indicated a Radev victory. If confirmed, this would be one of the best results in recent years for a single political party. "We will not allow (again) to have elections. Radev said to reporters after the exit polls were released, "It is ruinous for Bulgaria." He said he was 'willing to work' with the reformist We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria coalition (PP-DB), which came third with 14.1% in the Alpha Research Exit Polls, on judicial Reform, but that a minor government is also an option. He said, "We are willing to consider other options so that Bulgaria has a stable and regular government." The final results of the election are expected to be announced on Monday. The promises of RADEV are a reality for many Radev's campaign called for improved relations with Moscow, and the return of free Russian oil and gas to Europe. There is no way to know how this will affect the foreign policy of Bulgaria. Bulgaria, which is a NATO member and a European Union member that joined the eurozone last January, has not yet made definite statements about the impact. A coalition with reformist PPDB could moderate any Kremlin friendly leanings. Radev's participation and support was boosted by a slick social media campaign and deep coffers, as well as a promise of stability and a promise of stability. Alpha Research estimated that turnout was 47% after one hour, compared to 39% in the October 2024 election. Winner Will Have Work to Do Bulgaria has grown rapidly since 1989, when communism fell. It joined the European Union. Since joining the Eurozone in January, the life expectancy of Bulgarians has increased dramatically, the unemployment rate is the lowest in the EU and the economy is better protected. It lags behind other EU countries on many metrics and corruption is still endemic. This includes vote-buying at elections. Since Bulgaria adopted the Euro, cost of living has become a major issue. The previous government was overthrown amid protests about a budget that proposed tax increases and higher social insurance contributions. "Politicians must come together to make decisions, not to have constant arguments and conflicts, and to go from one election after another without getting any work done," said Bogomil Bárdarski, 72, a metalworker in Sofia. (Writing and editing by Edward McAllister, Jacqueline Wong, Christina Fincher and Mark Potter)
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India's Gold Festival sees tepid Demand despite Price Surge
The gold demand at one of India's most important?buying festival remained muted as record prices curbed jewellery sales, offsetting an increase in investment demand. Indians celebrated Akshaya?Tritiya as the second biggest gold-buying holiday?after Dhanteras. The sharp rise in jewellery prices has curbed demand. "The sharp rise in prices curbed jewellery demand." Gold prices have fallen to a level of $4,861 from a high of $5594.82 on January 29, and now trade at around $4,861. Gold futures for 10 grams in India, which is the second largest gold consumer in the world, closed Friday at 154 609 rupees, or $1 670, a figure that was nearly 63% more than the previous Akshaya Tritiya festival. Surendra Mehta is the national secretary of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association. He said that demand in the rest the country was lower than usual, except for a few southern Indian states. Jewellers in Mumbai have offered discounts on fees to create jewellery as a way to attract customers. According to data compiled by World Gold Council, India's jewellery consumption in 2025 will be down 24% from the previous year. However, investment demand is expected to rise 17% and reach its highest level since 2013. A Mumbai-based dealer of gold bullion with a private bank said that the buying patterns for gold in India have changed. Purchases are no longer only made during festivals, as price-sensitive customers make purchases throughout the year when prices drop. India published an order?Friday that listed banks authorized to import 'gold and silver. This is a relief to banks who were forced to stop imports due to the delay in publication. $1 = 92.5980 Indian Rupees
Oil prices soar, while stocks sway as the Mideast ceasefire is in doubt
The U.S. Dollar climbed from its lows, and the stock markets wobbled as tensions in the Middle East reduced the number of shipments into and out of Gulf. Traders were still holding on to hope that a solution would be found.
The Iran war ceasefire, which was supposed to last until Tuesday, is now in doubt, after the U.S. seizes an Iranian cargo vessel and the top military command of Tehran vows to retaliate.
Iran has reinstated its de facto closing of the Strait of Hormuz despite Kpler data showing that over 20 vessels carrying metals, oil products, gas, and fertilisers passed through the Strait on Saturday. This was the busiest time for the chokepoint since March 1.
Brent crude futures rose about 6% in the early Asia trading to $96 per barrel. The dollar rose slightly after it fell sharply Friday, when the'strait briefly opened.
S&P futures dropped around 0.7%. This is a modest movement considering that the index reached a new record high on Friday. Asia-Pacific markets were mixed with Australia's S&P/ASX200 down 0.5%, and Japan's Nikkei benchmark up 0.7%.
The bond markets have retreated after Friday's rally.
Damien Boey is a portfolio strategist with Wilson Asset Management, Sydney.
"But,?I believe, ultimately, both parties want to be able to?do a deal. That's part the reason why the markets are optimistic and not selling too much."
Iran's state news agency reported that it rejected new peace negotiations with the U.S. on Sunday. This was hours after U.S. president Donald Trump announced he would send envoys to Pakistan for talks and launch new attacks on Iran if they did not accept his terms.
Focus on HORMUZ
The euro fell by 0.1% to $1.1735, and the yen slipped around 0.3%, down to?159 for the dollar. Meanwhile, the Australian and New Zealand Dollars also declined.
Bonds also partially reversed Friday's moves. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Yields, which fell 6.5 basis points Friday, rose by 3.2 basis points?to 4,276%.
Investors have sold fixed income assets in March, anticipating higher oil prices to drive inflation. They've tempered this a bit in recent weeks.
"Our base-case (AKA guess) still remains a resolution of the war. Trump's attention is still on the November midterm elections," Paul Chew, Singapore-based Phillip Securities' head of research said in a client note.
Wall Street indexes reached record highs Friday, boosted by expectations for robust first-quarter earnings, which will be released largely this week. China will likely hold its benchmark lending rates at the same level on Monday.
The British inflation figures, U.S. Retail Sales and European Purchasing Managers' Index figures are due in the coming week. However, most of the focus on markets will be on Gulf Shipping.
Bob Savage is the head of BNY's markets macro strategy. He said that "the critical barometer of geopolitical risks has been reduced to one data point, which is the number of ships passing through Strait of Hormuz".
The immediate focus of the talks is oil and other shortages that are driving inflation.
(source: Reuters)