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MORNING BID EUROPE - Of course Trump would have COUNTDOWN

Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.

Now we have a Middle East war, Iran with ballistic missiles and a terrifying deadline. How very reality television. There will be a red timer in the corner of some news channels screen, counting down the seconds.

On Saturday evening, Trump announced on social media that Iran had 48-hours to open the Strait of Hormuz or the U.S. was going to "obliterate' Iran's nuclear power plants. Trump gave Iran a deadline for Monday evening of 7:45 pm EDT (2345 GMT), ruining the morning of Tuesday in Asia.

It appears that the nuclear power plant would be the first target, as it is the largest. This would be?usually prohibited by international law, and could cause a major ecological disaster.

Iran threatened to "completely close" the Strait of Hormuz and to target water and energy infrastructure in neighboring countries. Desalination plant strikes would be devastating.

Brent has been fluctuating between higher and lower levels, but is currently up 0.5% after a very turbulent trade. This could be due to the U.S. allowing the sale of more Iranian oil and Russian oil on tankers already, which is meeting the immediate demand.

The growing threat of long-term shortages is pushing oil futures downwards. September Brent is $1 higher at $92.90, indicating that high prices will continue. It's the same story for LNG. Reports indicate that seven tankers are at sea carrying cargoes. However, once these are delivered, there will no longer be any new supplies from Qatar.

Already, there are global shortages in jet fuel, bunker for ships, and fertiliser. This will make travel, shopping, and eating more expensive.

Fatih Birol, the boss of the International Energy Agency (IEA), is currently in Australia and is warning that the crisis is "very serious" and worse than both oil shocks from the 1970s combined.

Bonds are being impacted by inflation, as 10-year Treasury yields have reached a?eight-month peak of 4.150%. This has increased borrowing costs in developed countries already grappling with budget deficits and debt.

The higher?yields also stretch equity valuations. Meanwhile, rising petrol and diesel costs will act as brakes on corporate profits and consumer demand. Investors also have 'aggressively re-priced' for central bank tightening. In some cases, this has been done dramatically. The Fed is no longer expected to cut rates this year. Instead, the ECB and BoE are forecasting rate hikes of 75 basis points each.

The Nikkei has fallen more than 3%, and South Korea has lost almost 6%. European stock futures have fallen between 1.1% and 1.3%. S&P 500 Futures are down about 0.4%.

Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane and ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone will be making appearances.

- EU March consumer confidence

US construction spending in January

(source: Reuters)