Latest News
-
Why $100 oil no longer scares equity markets, Stephen Jen
Why are global equity markets so resilient to the Iran Oil shock? Oil at $100 per barrel 'doesn’t mean the same thing it used to. Brent crude is up around 70% in price since the Iran War began on February 28, to $120 per barrel as of Thursday morning. Despite their volatility, global equity markets are still significantly above pre-war levels. There are a number of explanations but the most important one is rooted in mathematics. Fatih Birol is the head of the International Energy Agency. He has called the current oil crisis the worst ever - worse than the ones in 1973, 1979, or 2022. He says that the Strait of Hormuz closure and the war have affected crude oil supplies by 12 million barrels a day. Also, other energy shipments were affected. Birol claims that this is "the worst oil shock in history" compared to 1973's OPEC embargo, which caused 5 million bpd losses. If we adjust for inflation, and energy consumption, as a percent of the gross domestic product, both price increases and supply destruction do not appear as severe. The equity markets' resilience also appears more reasonable. The denominator is important. First, it's important to compare the destruction of supply in relative terms and not across time. According to the IEA, the global oil consumption in the 1970s was 50 million bpd. This figure had doubled before the Iran War. The 5 million bpd was a lot higher back then. The global economy is also less oil-intensive. The global oil consumption has increased over the years, but as a proportion of GDP, this has declined. This is known as "oil intensities." According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, this ratio is about a third of 1973. To compare oil shocks over decades, it is also necessary to take into account inflation, which has increased by 650% in the U.S. since?the 1970s. Our econometric estimations suggest that $100 per barrel today is the same as $50 before the Global Financial Crisis, or $5 in 1973. U.S. EXCEPTIONALISM It appears that the U.S. economy has?become less vulnerable to a shock to oil of this magnitude. Based on the assumptions made above, our analysis indicates that a 50% oil price shock had a negative impact of 1.0% on U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over eight quarters in 1970, but would have only a 0.2% negative impact today. Our analysis suggests that the impact of large oil price shocks in the U.S. on inflation has declined to about a quarter the level of five decades ago. The U.S. is also better placed than other regions. Oil price increases can have a negative multiplier effect on real economies - adjusted for inflation - but the multiplier effects vary between countries. According to our econometric estimations, the U.S. has become half as sensitive as Europe or Asia to increases in oil prices. The gap has increased over time as the U.S. became more self-sufficient in hydrocarbons as a result the shale gas boom. The U.S. is still heavily dependent on energy prices. However, the industries that are most affected by them, such as manufacturing, are now a smaller part of the economy. Strong Fundamentals It is important to remember that global economic growth - in particular the U.S. - was quite robust before the Iran War. This is partly due to the massive transfers from the public to private sector during the COVID-19 Pandemic. The government's generosity has improved the financial situation of many households and businesses in major economies. The tech race, and the massive capital expenditures associated with it - mainly in the U.S.A. and China – continue to drive the global economy. History shows that a world where there is more competition between global powers - rather than less - will generate greater economic growth. Of course, I'm not saying that high oil costs have no effect on economic growth or inflation. If oil prices spiked much higher, say closer to $200, then U.S. recession risks and global inflation concerns could overwhelm inflation worries, resulting in lower equity prices, stronger dollar and lower yields on bonds. Overall, however, global?economy may be more tolerant of oil shocks than many think. Oil prices will remain broadly range bound as long as they do. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
-
Austria's OMV increases energy price forecasts to 2026
Austria's OMV raised its forecasts on Thursday for energy prices in 2026 and said that it expected higher prices as a result of lower production due to the Iran War and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil and Gas Company raised their estimate of the average Brent price in 2026 to between $85-$95 per barrel, up from $65. This is based on the assumption the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened before the end of June. The company expects to see a gas price realized of between 35 and 40 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh) in the coming year. This is up from its February forecast, which was less than 30 euro per MWh. As a result of the U.S./Israeli conflict with?Iran, and the subsequent closure of Strait of Hormuz,?oil has skyrocketed past?the $110 mark as supply chains were disrupted. The company stated that while "refining margins are at a high level, tighter government regulations and interventions such as fuel price cap and changes in taxation within OMV's countries may negatively impact segment outcomes." OMV, a company in which Austrian state owns a 31.5% stake in, has complied with the new Austrian rule that requires all value-added taxes from higher fuel prices be returned to customers through a lower fuel tax. This limits retailers' margins. The ?Vienna-based company reported an operating profit of 1.03 billion euros ($1.19 billion) for the first quarter, just above analysts' expectations of ?1 billion euros in a company-provided poll, benefitting from a ?stronger-than-expected performance in its energy division. The results are based on current costs of supply, and exclude one-off items and short-term gains or losses from energy inventories. OMV reported that Borouge also contributed less in March due to the disruptions of logistics and increased costs caused by war.
-
Repsol profits surge 57% amid Iran War, but still fall short of forecast
Repsol, the Spanish oil refiner, posted a 57% increase of its first-quarter adjusted profit on Thursday as oil refining margins soared. It also announced that it would increase kerosene output by 15 to 20% in response to global jet fuel shortages due to the Iran War. The main Spanish refiner and oil company booked an adjusted net profit of 873 millions euros ($1.02billion), which is still below the average forecast provided by the company of 897million euros. The company's refining margin in Spain has more than doubled since a year earlier, reaching $10.9 per barrel. The company said that the results were "influenced by a volatile global macroeconomic environment" shaped by conflict in the Middle East. It allocated 1.2 billion Euros in the third quarter to increase crude oil inventories, and maximize available feedstock. Repsol, which has no assets or feedstock in the Middle East, is focused on ensuring a "continuity" of energy supplies... and mitigating fuel price volatility's impact on the Spanish society by offering additional discounts at its service stations. EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation) increased by 110% in the last year to 2,61 billion euros. Repsol said it was also on track to achieve its full-year obligations on shareholder remuneration.
-
ArcelorMittal's earnings exceed expectations as EU steel regulations begin to take effect
ArcelorMittal, the world's second-largest steelmaker, reported stronger-than-expected core earnings ?on Thursday, helped by ?higher steel prices and ?improved performance ?in its North America business. According to LSEG data, the Luxembourg-based firm posted core earnings in the first quarter of 1,68 billion dollars, exceeding analysts' estimates of $1.65billion. Aditya Mittal, CEO of Aditya Mittal Group, said in the earnings report that "the fundamentals of our business have improved in the last three months." He said that the performance in the first three months was resilient, despite "unsettled background" in the Middle East. EU STEELMAKERS SEEK RECOVERY Despite the fact that demand for steel is below the 2022 level, the steel sector is poised to recover as the European Union has implemented policy changes in recent months and energy prices have increased. The European Commission's new levy on carbon-intensive goods, and a new policy that will halve imports to the EU from July are among the factors which have driven prices of European hot-rolled coil 22% higher over the last six months. ArcelorMittal says that lower imports will lead to higher capacity utilization and profitability, and return on capital, to healthy and sustainable levels. The company is preparing to restart idled blow furnaces in France, and Poland. The company stated that the first quarter performance "did not yet reflect a materially improved price environment" and added that these benefits are expected to begin rolling in by the second quarter 2026. Analysts expect EU steelmakers to 'pass on higher energy costs to customers. Clients are increasingly purchasing from domestic producers in order to avoid supply chain disruptions caused by the Middle East War.
-
Mining supercycle: Big money bets billions
Major fund managers have predicted a sustained rally for mining and metals, as money pours in at the fastest rate in years. This is due to a robust AI infrastructure, increased defence spending, and a move away from expensive technology stocks. The assets under management of mining exchange-traded funds grew by more than twofold to $87.4 Billion by March 31 compared with $37 Billion a year ago, according to data compiled for ETFGI by the research firm. shows. Oil and gas?and agriculture also saw significant inflows. This marks one of the sharpest shifts in investment towards hard assets ever. Investors invested $8.24 billion in mining in the first 3 months of 2019. This is a change of $10.8 billion in sentiment from the first three month of 2025, when President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs that resulted in a $2.52 billion outflow. BlackRock portfolio manager Evy Hambro said capital was starting to move from high-valued tech stocks into hard assets. She called it "the beginning stages of a commodities supercycle". Morningstar's U.S. Technology Index dropped 9% in the 1st quarter. BHP and Rio Tinto, the two world's largest mining companies, have both seen their shares reach record highs in this year. Hambro stated that "the material intensity of GDP?is increasing", pointing out the surge in capital investments into grid infrastructure, data centers, electric vehicles, and charging stations. Hambro, a leading analyst, said that unlike the urbanisation-driven boom of China in 2000, demand in this cycle is "much stronger and more resilient", because there's global diversification in AI, electrification, and defence. Analysts and investors said that the change in market structure increases the risk of price fluctuations, as metals are smaller than global equity and bond markets and more susceptible to bottlenecks within mining, refining, and transportation. Taosha Wan, from Fidelity, also stated that a supercycle focused on mining and energy has already begun as the Iran War pushes government to prioritize supply security. GOLD VS INDUSTRIAL METAL The flow of funds has been skewed towards industrial metals. In March, copper funds received $198 million while gold's raging rally was accompanied by profit-taking. VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) alone lost $710 millions last month but is still up over $1 billion for the year. Investors say that the pullback of gold in a geopolitical crisis is notable. Investors say that rather than seek shelter in safe havens, the markets are betting on the Iran conflict to catalyse real-economy responses, requiring energy security and infrastructure investments requiring steel, copper, and rare Earths. Fund managers say that the fact that oil and gas funds have received almost $6 billion net in the first three months of the year confirms the idea investors are preparing for infrastructure spending. Portfolio managers are attracted to diversified miners such as BHP and Rio Tinto, which sit at the intersection of many demand drivers. Anix Vyas is a portfolio manager for Harding Loevner. He said that aluminum and copper are in high demand. This demand has increased as the Iran Crisis unfolds. Rio Tinto, which holds both metals, can also benefit from an increase in demand due to data centres?and industrial applications. Vyas described the shift as investors leaving software companies that are vulnerable to AI disruption in favor of companies with more durable advantages like miners who control critical minerals. Small Markets, Big Swings Metals futures are relatively small, so heavy inflows may magnify volatility while a larger uptrend is still intact. The London Metal Exchange reported that trading volumes in metals futures, including copper and aluminum, totaled $21 trillion. Meanwhile, the CME recorded gold futures trades of more than $25 trillion. This pales in comparison to the $85 trillion generated by Nasdaq 100?futures, and the more than $135 billion in S&P500 futures. The dramatic swings in ETF flows from one year to the next show how easily sentiment can change and how susceptible these markets are for a reversal. This sector also represents a very small portion of the global market. The top?five mining firms represent just 0.4% of MSCI ACWI Index, compared to 16.8% of the top five technology companies. Metals and mining products make up just 0.57% of the total equity ETF share. The major mining companies' shares are still trading at 7 to 8 EV/EBITDA multiples, which is well below the 14-times multiples seen in the 2008-2010 boom. This suggests that there could be significant upside potential if the supercycle continues. Copper is at the intersection between everything and critically undersupplied. "I have no doubt that copper prices could double or even triple in the next decade, and owning producers of copper will provide multiples of the spot price increase," said Charlie Aitken. He is the group investment director for Australia's Regal Partners. The company is overweight with mining and metals, and had A$21 billion (15.05 billion) at its disposal at the end March. Investors said that while investing in this sector offers an inflation hedge, it could also lead to price increases, which would compound inflation pressures caused by the Iran War's impact on the energy markets, and pose risks to the global economy.
-
LME WEEK - Iran War, Supply Shocks on Agenda as Metals Industry Gathers in Hong Kong
The London Metal Exchange's Asia Week conference, which takes place next week in Hong Kong, will be dominated by geopolitics. The U.S. and Israeli war against Iran has caused a shock to the energy market, which is affecting the outlook for demand of most metals. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz?has?trapped?large quantities of aluminium, sulphur and sulphuric acids that are used to produce copper and nickel. In the meantime, governments in Indonesia and Guinea tighten their grip on production through export quotas as well as tax changes. This is a new type of resource nationalism. Here is a summary of the main themes: SHFE Internationalisation Shanghai Futures Exchange has opened nickel contracts for foreign investors since April 22. This is the latest move to open China's commodity derivatives markets to outsiders. Many companies have expressed interest, even though it's too early to predict the volume increase that this move will bring. The Chinese yuan is expected to be used more. NICKEL – FLIPPING? TO DEFICIT Indonesia, the country that flooded the global nickel markets, now tightens supply by reducing mining quotas, and increasing taxes. Some producers are also affected by the war's sulphur deficit. Huayou Huafei's project had to reduce its production by about half from May 1 due to rising costs. The market is heading for its first deficit since 2021 due to tighter supply. Nickel is up 17% in this year, trading near its four-year highs. COPPER – HOW SULPHURIC ACIDS WILL SHAPE TC/RC Talks The war in the Middle East and China's decision to limit exports in order to lower domestic prices have led to a global shortage of sulphuric acids, which are used in copper mining. Prices were high prior to the war, and they rose by 5.61% in?April after a drop in 'March due to higher energy prices. This windfall could complicate negotiations with copper miners in the future if they ask for a reduction or want to use their profits to push processing fees down below zero. Chinese smelters are resistant to contracts with negative fees. However, spot transactions have been?negatively?charged for over a year. ALUMINIUM - IS A GULF OUTAGE BECOMING A GLOBAL SQUEEZE Mercuria, a market analyst, has described the Iran War as the "black swan event" for the industry. Guinea, upstream, is adding a new pressure point by introducing a bauxite import curb. Prices for semi-finished aluminum billets in Europe have doubled since war began, but prices in Asia are lower due to steady exports from China. LME aluminum is up 17% since the start of the war. It is unclear how high prices could go. Last week, analysts polled predicted prices for the third quarter to be 11% lower than Friday's close of $3 669 per ton.
-
BASF's operating profit falls due to forex effects and pressure from competitors
BASF reported on Thursday that its quarterly adjusted operating profits had declined 5.6%. It cited 'negative currency effects and 'competitive pressures.?It also added that the impact of the Iran War was uncertain. BASF reported that its first-quarter earnings were 2.36 billion euros ($2.75 billion), after adjusting for special items. This was a decline from the 2.19 billion euro average analyst estimate. The German chemical company reaffirmed that the adjusted EBITDA is likely to reach?6.2-7.0 billion this year compared with 6.6?billion in 2025. The company also projected a Brent crude oil average price of $65 per barrel in 2026. This was unchanged from February's assumptions, and a little more than half the current price. It added that this was due to the "high degree of uncertainty" about the outcome of the conflict in the Middle East. "The assumptions that were made in February about growth in the global GDP, industrial production and chemical production could prove to be overly optimistic." "The oil price could?be higher that our current assumption," the report?added. Brent crude futures rose over 6% to a four-year high of $125 per barrel on Thursday, following a report stating that the U.S. was considering further military action against Iran. ($1 = 0.8578 euro) (Reporting and Editing by Friederike Hiene, Ludwig Burger and Patricia Weiss)
-
MORNING BID - Central bank hawks scare off bonds but tech is unaffected
Stella Qiu gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Jerome Powell’s parting gift was a hawkish one - the U.S. Central Bank held interest rates steady, but in the most polarized vote since 1992, three regional presidents disagreed over language that indicated an “easing bias”, claiming such language was not appropriate due to a?elevated? inflation and the massive uncertainty regarding oil prices resulting from the U.S. supported war against Iran. It is not uncommon for central banks, including the BoC, to raise the alarm about inflation when Brent oil reaches a four-year-high of $125 per barrel. According to media reports, U.S. president Donald Trump will receive a briefing today on the new military options against Iran. Peace talks have appeared to be stalled. Powell confirmed that he will remain as a Fed Governor until the outlook is clearer. He has essentially taken over for Stephen Miran, who was a Trump supporter and voted in favor of a rate reduction on Wednesday. Many analysts believe Powell will join the hawks in order to oppose further attempts from Trump and his new Fed chair Kevin Warsh to reduce interest rates. Treasury yields spiked as traders priced in any?chance that rates would be cut this year. The traders now see an equal chance of a Fed rate hike by April 2027. This is a complete reversal of the situation before the start of the war at the end February. The equities were, however, in a world created by AI. Nasdaq Futures rose by around 0.4% due to the generally positive earnings of four tech giants in the first quarter. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, soared by 7% after exceeding forecasts. Microsoft and Amazon.com also delivered, but Meta Platforms disappointed due to concerns about its AI spending. Apple is expected to continue the party later today. South Korea's KOSPI is set to rise 32% in April. This would be the biggest monthly gain since 1998. Taiwan stocks are expected to increase 24.5% over the course of the month. Stock futures for the entire region are down by 0.4% due to the gulf that exists between macro fear and micro euphoria. Investors are nervously watching the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England who will both announce their?decisions in the near future, for fear that they may turn even more hawkish. The March inflation figures from Europe and America will also be released and reveal the first impact of the Iran War. The rise in petrol prices will almost certainly lead to a spike in headline inflation, but everyone knows that the worst is still yet to come. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday. Estimates for the eurozone and U.S. GDP in Q1 Inflation in the EU for March U.S. PCE Inflation and Spending for March Apple Q1 earnings -- ECB, BOE decisions
What is the difference between a driller and a trader? Iran War exposes Big Oil’s transatlantic division: Bousso
The first quarter profits of European oil majors were boosted by bumper trading gains, as the Iran Warupended supply chain. This highlights how shifting?barrels across the globe can sometimes be more important than pumping them from the ground. BP, Shell, and TotalEnergies spent years developing vast oil trading'machines' that are now at the core of their businesses - setting them apart from their U.S. counterparts, for better or for worse. BP announced a first-quarter profit of $3.2 billion on Tuesday. This is more than twice the figure from last year, largely due to what BP called an exceptional performance in its oil trading. Oil trading is housed in the Customers and Products division, which has a profit of $3.2 billion before tax and interest. This is the best result for oil trading since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
According to ROI calculations, BP’s oil trading – the buying and the selling of crude and other fuels for its global retail network as well as end customers – likely contributed $1.5 billion pre-tax profits in the third quarter.
The size of BP's trading operations is both a source of upside potential and risk. The company trades 12 million barrels per day, which is equivalent to roughly 11% global demand. This is 10 times BP’s upstream production capacity and 8 times its refinery capacity. TotalEnergies reported a $5.4 billion net profit for the third quarter. This was a 29% increase year-over-year, driven in part by strong trading. Earnings in the segment of refining chemicals, which is where Total's oil trade takes place, have more than quadrupled from a year ago to $1.6 billion. Shell, which is estimated to trade 14 million barrels per day, has also reported a strong performance in the first quarter ahead of its results on May 7.
OPPORTUNITY RISK
The majors have the flexibility to take advantage of small price fluctuations across products and regions because they can exploit a'sprawling network of refineries, storage terminals, pipelines and tankers. The opportunities and dangers multiply when those dislocations reach seismic levels, as they have in the last two months. Since the Iran War broke out on 28 February and the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed, over 13 million bpd of production - 13% of the global supply – have been trapped in the Gulf. This has sent shockwaves throughout crude and refined products markets. The impact was massive. Brent crude has increased by more than 60% since the beginning of the war, to $115 per barrel. This is accompanied with tremendous volatility on oil, fuel, and liquefied gas markets.
Arbitrage is possible when disruptions of this magnitude occur. Rerouting diesel or jet fuel in highly unusual ways, like shipping cargoes to Australia where prices have risen since the beginning of the conflict, is one example.
Trading at this level is capital intensive and can be unforgiving when things go wrong. Tankers that hold large amounts of cargo for long periods can cost a lot of money.
BP said that its working capital increased by $6 billion during the third quarter. This included $4.1 billion due to higher oil prices, longer routes for shipping and larger inventories. These positions will unwind in the coming months but they are still significant.
Large trading arms have been able to absorb losses during this turbulent time. BP is heavily exposed to the Gulf. Equity upstream production was around 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the Middle East - or about 17% of total output by 2025. TotalEnergies accounts for 15% of its production through operations in Qatar and Iraq, as well as the United Arab Emirates. Shell reported a lower production due to "outages" in Qatar. BP estimates trading can typically deliver a return of up to 4% on the average capital invested. Shell provides similar advice. In times of extreme volatility, this increase is almost certain to be higher.
UNRIVALED EXTRACT Exxon Mobil, Chevron and their European competitors may envy the trading profits of their European counterparts.
Both U.S. giants keep trading under tight control, using it only to manage internal volumes?upstream or downstream. Previous attempts to create more independent trading desks failed, partly because the highly centralised decision making at these firms prevented traders from acting quickly in fast-moving markets. This contrast is a two-way street. Exxon may not have the same trading success as the European giants, but their upstream operations are far superior.
Exxon-Chevron will produce 4.7 million bpd in 2025 and 3.7 millions bpd by then, which is well above BP, Shell, and TotalEnergies, who each produced 2.5 million bpd. The European upstream sector's weakness is partly due to the heavy investments made in renewables and lower-carbon fuels in this decade. BP and Shell have retreated from this strategy following heavy losses but still lag behind their U.S. competitors.
Exxon's and Chevron’s massive production engines will generate enormous cash if the prices remain high after the Iran War, but the trading profits of BP Shell and TotalEnergies might not be re-created if volatility decreases.
Investors find it difficult to value trading operations because they are opaque and volatile. Trading could become more important to European majors, given their inability match U.S. competitors on production. This would increase the valuation gap between Europe and America.
Energy industry will be increasingly defined by new divisions: traders and drillers.
You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
(source: Reuters)