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US power giants bet on AI build-out but power bills may affect their decision

The massive merger between NextEra and Dominion Energy may hinge on the ability of the combined company to keep electricity costs down, even as it rushes in order to supply energy-hungry data centers that are driving up consumer prices.

NextEra?said?buying Dominion would allow it to quickly build new generation in areas where others have lagged, and connect proposed data centres waiting to start operations. These companies will have to pass multiple reviews by local, state and national regulatory agencies who will evaluate the consumer impact of rising power bills in certain U.S. areas due to the demand for AI data centers outpacing new generation.

Paul Patterson, energy analyst at Glenrock Associates LLC, said that the main issue is to keep rates low and growth affordable.

The merger was primarily to serve?data centres.

Dominion's territory includes northern Virginia, also known as "Data Center Alley". This area of increasing power demand is located within the 13-state PJM Interconnection where new data hubs and other areas are expanding.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Virginia's electricity demand increased by 3.1% annually between 2019 and 2024. This is more than three times higher than the national average of 0.9%.

In some areas of PJM, household power bills have risen by more than 20% in the past two years due to a?demand growth but stagnant supply.

As a result of the imbalance between supply and demand, large-scale construction projects have sparked political opposition as well as increased regulatory scrutiny.

SCALE, SPEED, AND SCRUTINY

Analysts and investors believe that merging NextEra with Dominion, which together has built more power than the 25 next largest utilities combined, could provide the scale necessary to advance data center power transmission and generation projects, both of which have stalled.

Dominion’s expertise and relationships will allow NextEra's data center ambitions to be accelerated.

"Utilities need to have larger balance sheets and broader generation portfolios as well as faster infrastructure deployment in order to compete with AI," said Alex Torgerson. He is a mergers & acquisitions leader at the business and technology consulting firm West Monroe.

Torgerson stated that "the biggest challenge is now for regulators who will be scrutinizing market concentration, grid stability, and whether ratepayers see any meaningful benefits from this size of a deal." In a joint press release, NextEra and Dominion highlighted that the combined company will keep rates down and offered Dominion customers from Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina bill credits worth $2.25 billion over two years. The research arm of investment banking advisory firm Evercore said in a report that "the regulatory obstacles to closing this deal are the true variables."

Consumer advocates have criticized the merger, saying it's unnecessary and will ultimately benefit shareholders and executives of both companies more than utility consumers. According to Dominion’s latest proxy statement, five Dominion executives may?collectively receive? an estimated $66,000,000 in pay and benefits due to the takeover. Dominion CEO Robert Blue was paid an estimated $30.1 million for his change-in control.

The Electricity Law Initiative director at Harvard University Law School, Ari Peskoe said, "Utility mergers only benefit shareholders and executives. They do not benefit ratepayers."

(source: Reuters)