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The tough job of Fed gets even harder

The tough job of Fed gets even harder

What will the ROI team be reading, watching and listening to this weekend?

Hello Morning Bid readers! Yesterday, the job of U.S. Federal Reserve became a little more difficult. The first was the news that the second quarter GDP had been revised upwards to 3.8%. This is now the fastest growth rate since 3Q2023. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, announced new tariffs including 100% levies for branded drugs as well as 25% tariffs for heavy-duty trucks. Details are unclear, and there will be certain exemptions. However, the combination of resilient growth and possible price increases calls into question expectations of aggressive monetary easing. Markets had previously priced in a probability of more than 80% that a 50 basis-point cut would be implemented by December. This has now dropped to about 60%. The PCE inflation figures will be released later today. Even if policy rates continue to fall, as is expected, inflation fears, fiscal concerns, and political uncertainty could cause the long end of curve to rise. Joachim Klement is an investment strategist with Panmure Liberum. He believes that this could be bad news to the AI boom. Central bank watchers were also treated to a number of Fed officials' talks this week. These included Chair Jerome Powell and Governor Stephen Miran as well as San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic spoke also on the Market Musings Podcast, suggesting that Fed should replace the 2% target with a range and abandon the "illusion" of precision. In the commodities market, much attention was focused on Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia's infrastructure. Ron Bousso, ROI Energy columnist, argues that these attacks could raise President Trump's ire if they are successful. Clyde Russell, columnist for ROI Asia Commodities, says that the future of seaborne coking coal looks increasingly divided between robust domestic markets such as China, India, and Indonesia, and a slowly fading seaborne industry. Gavin Maguire, ROI Energy Transition columnist, explains which countries will likely play the largest role in determining the future trends of pollution, beyond China. Andy Home, ROI Metals columnist, explains the reasons why traders believe that the nickel prices have hit a rock-bottom.

Check out what the ROI team recommends you read, watch, and listen to as we enter the weekend. Stay informed and prepared for the coming week. Please contact me via

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The opinions expressed are solely those of the authors. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is bound by the Trust Principles to maintain integrity, independence and neutrality. (By Anna Szymanski.)

(source: Reuters)