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Global MARKETS - Global shares stable, dollar falls as focus shifts to Fed policy

Global MARKETS - Global shares stable, dollar falls as focus shifts to Fed policy

The dollar fell as traders bet that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in the next month.

Equity futures indicate a steady start to the S&P 500, and tech-heavy Nasdaq, despite a sway in Asian and European stocks after Nvidia reported its results. Nvidia shares fell around 1.5% during pre-market U.S. trading, as concerns over the company's China operations clouded an otherwise better-than expected revenue forecast for next quarter. Semiconductor shares in Europe fluctuated as investors analyzed the company's outlook, which also affected tech stocks in Asia. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company shares fell 2.5%. Nvidia's forecast was higher than the consensus of analysts, but disappointed investors used to big results.

The Stoxx 600, the pan-European stock index, was down 0.3% and reversed early gains.

Futures that track the rate-sensitive Russell 2000 index of small-caps in the United States were up by 0.7%. Money markets have priced in a probability of over 85% that the Federal Reserve will cut rates next month.

This month, the rate-cut bets have caused the dollar to fall 2% against other currencies. Last seen at 97.9, it was down 0.2%.

Lee Hardman is a senior currency analyst with MUFG. He said, "Unless we have a very robust report on employment in early September, the Fed will start cutting rates." Donald Trump announced earlier this week that he was firing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. This accelerated his campaign to exert influence over the central bank, which worried some investors about the political influence.

Cook will file a

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A lawyer for the embattled official of the central bank said that she was trying to stop President Donald Trump from dismissing her.

Philip Marey is a senior U.S. Strategist at Rabobank. He said that this week's events confirm his view that FOMC will continue to resist the rate cuts President Trump wants for this year. But next year, it will become increasingly difficult to separate White House influence from rate decisions. Concerns over France's fiscal trajectory are likely to remain in the forefront of regional markets after Prime Minister Francoise Bayrou's gamble on winning support for his deeply unpopular plan to reduce debt via a vote of confidence next month.

The yield on France's 10-year Government Bonds eased a little bit Thursday, but it remained near its highest level since march.

The spread between the benchmark 10-year bund and the French counterpart has eased after reaching a seven-month high of almost 83 basis points during the previous session.

Hardman stated that the developments in France "put a little damper on the upside potential of euro-dollar, but for us, the bigger story was what could happen at the Fed."

The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1667 on Thursday while the pound sterling gained 0.1% to $1.3515. The dollar fell 0.3% against the Japanese yen to 146.93yen. The interest-rate-expectation sensitive 2-year U.S. Treasury yield was at 3.6290%, down 6 basis points on the week and hovering close to its lowest level since late-April. On the commodities market, spot gold remained near its two-week high on Thursday, and last rose 0.2% to $3,405.56.

(source: Reuters)