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Analyst: Ukraine will curb Indian diesel imports due to Russian oil relations
Enkorr, a Ukrainian energy consultancy, announced on Monday that Ukraine would restrict the importation of diesel fuel from India, a country which buys a large portion of its crude oils from Russia. A-95 said in a report earlier this month, that traders were forced to import diesel fuel from India due to the loss of an important Ukrainian oil refinery during this summer. Even the Ukrainian Defence Ministry has purchased some Indian fuel because it meets post-Soviet standard. Drones and missiles have been used by Russia to attack Ukrainian refineries of oil and fuel and their storage facilities. Enkorr reports that Ukrainian security agencies have ordered that all consignments imported Indian diesel fuel be tested in a laboratory to determine whether they contain any Russian components. Enkorr reported that Ukraine imported 119,000 tonnes of Indian diesel fuel during August, which is 18% of its total diesel imports. Before the full-scale Russian war that begins in 2022, Ukraine imported diesel mainly from Belarus to compensate for its lack of production. Since 2022 it imports mainly from European nations to the west. A-95 reported that the imports of diesel fell 13% on an annual basis in the first six months of this year to 2.74 millions metric tons. (Reporting and editing by Sharon Singleton; Pavel Polityuk)
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Alamos divests Turkish unit in $470 million deal, ending $1 billion legal dispute
Alamos Gold, a Canadian mining company, announced late Sunday it would sell its Turkish subsidiary to a Middle East based mining firm for $470m. This will end a $1billion legal dispute that lasted years. Alamos is selling the Turkish unit of its mining conglomerate Nurol Holding to Tumad Madencilik Sanayi. Alamos has agreed to suspend any arbitration proceedings its Netherlands unit filed against Turkey in 2021, until certain milestones have been reached. Alamos' website states that the company has been active in Turkey since 2010. The miner halted the construction of its Kirazli Project in western Turkey, after mining concessions had expired. This was due to protests against this project. The firm filed a $1 billion lawsuit against Turkey, claiming "unfair and unfair treatment" in relation to the project. Alamos stated that the deal will close in the fourth quarter 2025. It added that the money it receives will be used to reduce its existing debt obligations as well as to support the projects the company is developing.
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India's palm oil imports in August hit a 1-year high due to festive demand and price advantage
A leading trade group said that India's palm-oil imports rose in August, reaching their highest level for more than a decade, due to the competitive price of soyoil, which encouraged refiners and retailers to increase purchases in advance of the holiday season. India's increased palm oil imports, as the largest buyer of vegetable oil in the world, should help top producers Indonesia, and Malaysia, reduce their inventories, and support benchmark Malaysian Palm Oil futures. Solvent Extractors' Association of India said that India's imports of palm oil in August increased by 15.76% to 990 528 metric tonnes, their highest level since July 2024. The industry trade group reported that imports of sunflower oil rose 28.53 percent to 257,080 tonnes, a record high for seven months. Imports soyoil fell 25.27%, to the lowest level since four months. The SEA reported that India imported 6,000 tonnes of canola oil in August for the first time since nearly five years. The SEA reported that the increase in palm oil and sunflower oil imported by India increased its total edible oil imports from 1.62 million tones per month, a 4.7% rise, reaching the highest level seen since July 2024. Mumbai-based dealer of a global trading house said that refiners were preparing for the festive season. Imports in September are expected to remain above 800,000 tonnes. In India, the demand for edible oils, especially palm oil, increases during festival seasons due to an increase in sweets and fried food consumption. India imports mainly palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia. It also imports sunflower oil and soyoil from Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine. The SEA reported that India imported 589.283 tons of edible oils duty-free from Nepal during the first nine month of the marketing period ending in October. This was done under a regional trading pact.
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China's property sector is struggling, and iron ore has been a major contributor to this.
Iron ore futures prices ended Monday lower, despite gains in steel benchmarks and steelmaking components, due to persistent weakness in China's top consumer, the property sector. The January contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange dropped by 0.31%, to 796 Yuan ($111.75), per metric ton. As of 0703 GMT, the benchmark September iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was down by 0.28% to $105.4 per ton. China's new house prices dropped by 0.3% in the month of August, compared to the previous one. This continues a downward trend which began in May 2023, and highlights weakness in the housing market demand. In China, however, the number of new bank loans rebounded after an unexpected decline in July. However, the recovery was less than expected as the government's efforts to reduce industrial overcapacity and the property slump continued to dampen demand for credit. China's crude-steel output fell 0.7% on an annual basis, and production in the first eight month of this year was down 2.8% from the same period last. Analysts from ANZ said that iron ore futures still posted a third weekly gain in a row last week. This was due to renewed activity at steel mills in China following the end of environmental production restrictions relating to a military display. According to Chinese consultancy Mysteel, the domestic demand for construction steel will recover in September due to better weather conditions and improved financial health in certain non-real estate industries. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also increased in price, by 4.4% and 4.62% respectively. Broker Hexun Futures stated in a report that coke and steel firms are increasing the restocking coking coal as Chinese National Day approaches. All steel benchmarks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange gained ground. Rebar increased by 0.93%. Hot-rolled coils increased by 0.87%. Wire rod strengthened 0.37%. Stainless steel gained 1.2%.
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Australian shares drop on the back of losses in gold, banking stocks
Gold prices down after two consecutive sessions of gains Evolution Mining's share price drops by over 5% Investors focus on upcoming unemployment data Roshan Thomas Sept. 15 - Australian stocks dipped on Monday due to a decline in gold and banking stocks. Miners also fell on the back of weak iron ore and concerns about China's real estate sector. The S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.1% higher at 8,853 point. The benchmark closed Friday 0.7% higher. Profit-taking pressured the Financials sector to drop by 0.2%. This sub-index has now dropped 0.8% in the last month, reducing gains made year-to date of almost 12.2%. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (the country's largest lender) dropped by 0.6%, which weighed on the subindex. CBA, despite the decline, has been on a good run this year. Its stock price is up over 10% by 2025. This includes a 5% increase in just June. Greg Smith, an investment specialist with the New Zealand-based Generate KiwiSaver scheme, says falling interest rates will likely sustain competition between Australian banks for home loans, which may put pressure on margins. After two sessions of gains, the gold subindex fell 2.7%. The shares of gold mining company Evolution Mining fell 5.3%. Iron ore prices also fell, as new data showed persistent weakness in China’s property sector. ANZ Group shares dropped 0.6% among individual stocks. The lender agreed on Monday to pay A$240m ($159.8m) for systemic failures. This included acting "unconscionably", in a deal to buy government bonds, and charging fees to dead customers. Investors are now awaiting Australia's employment data, due on Thursday. This will be crucial in assessing if the domestic labor market has weakened. Justin Lin, GlobalXETFs investment analyst, believes that equities will remain rangebound in this week. Trading cues are likely to be affected by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate-cut decision on Wednesday. The benchmark S&P/NZX 50 Index in New Zealand fell 0.1% to 13,208.31.
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Wall Street Journal, September 15,
These are the most popular stories from the Wall Street Journal. These stories have not been verified and we cannot vouch their accuracy. Whirlpool, an appliance maker in the United States, told the U.S. Government that its overseas competitors may be undervaluing imports to avoid paying hefty tariffs by using federal data generated through import paperwork. ANZ Group has agreed to pay a total of A$240m ($159.70m) in penalties as part of a settlement deal for five issues within its Australian Markets & Retail business that were at the center of a regulatory investigation. The White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and UnitedHealth CEO Stephen Hemsley met recently to discuss Medicare, among other topics. However, the government's investigations were not discussed. J Sainsbury announced that discussions with Chinese online retailer JD.com about the purchase of its Argos Home Retail business failed. The gold-mining division of China's largest miner Zijin Mining has been preparing for a public offer that, according to some estimates, could be valued at up to $40 billion. Chinese diplomats courted White House for over two months in order to secure a visit from U.S. president Donald Trump. However, the U.S. wants concessions on TikTok and trade in exchange for Trump's visit.
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The rising price of gold could dull India's festive sparkle
The gold demand in India is expected to be lower than last year due to record high prices, which are likely to limit jewellery purchases and outweigh modest gains in investment demand. Weaker demand from the second largest gold consumer in the world could limit an increase in global prices that reached a record last week. Sluggish gold demand could help India reduce its trade deficit, and therefore support the rupee. Gold prices in the local market, which reached a record high of 109.840 rupees for 10 grams per week last week, are up 42% this year, after rising 21% from 2024. "Consumers' budgets are fixed and they can't keep up with the rising prices." Amit Modak said that PN Gadgil and Sons' chief executive, Amit, expects the demand to drop by 10%-15%. In October, Indians will celebrate Dussehra (Gold Festival) and Diwali (Diwali), festivals when buying gold is considered auspicious. India's gold sales are typically accounted for by about a third in the December quarter, which coincides with wedding season and festivals. The gold demand for the quarter ending December last year was 265,8 metric tonnes, which was boosted by the price correction that occurred just before the holiday season. New Delhi had lowered import duties from 15% to 6% in an effort to combat smuggling. Sachin Jain is the CEO of World Gold Council India operations. He said that despite the rising price, consumer sentiment has improved over the past few weeks. Jain said that investment demand has also been increasing, particularly through exchange-traded fund (ETFs), as gold is delivering higher returns than other asset classes. Harshad Ajmera, wholesaler JJ Gold House, in Kolkata, believes that the government's decision to reduce goods and services taxes (GST) will boost retail gold sales, since it will give people more disposable income. India announced earlier this month tax reductions on hundreds of consumer goods, ranging from small cars to soaps. The goal was to boost domestic demand. (Reporting and editing by Sumana Nady; Brijesh Patel and Rajendra Jadhav)
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Stocks in Asia are hesitant, and a lot depends on the Fed's decision
Asian shares were near their four-year-highs on Monday, ahead of a week of action that will likely see the U.S. Federal Reserve resuming its easing cycle and possibly leaving the door open for a series cuts. Bank of Canada and Bank of England are also meeting this week and both are expected to keep rates the same. The EUROSTOXX futures are 0.3% higher. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures both rose by 0.1%. The markets are priced in for a 25 basis point Fed easing, bringing its funds rate down to 4.0-4.25%. Futures indicate a mere 4% chance that the Fed will ease by 50 basis points. The Fed's "dot-plot" projections of rates, and the guidance provided by Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding the pace and extent of further easing will also be important. Investors will be disappointed if the futures market is anything but dovish. David Mericle is the chief U.S. economics at Goldman Sachs. We expect that the statement will acknowledge the softening of the labor market, but we do not expect any change in policy or an indication of a cut for October. On Sunday, U.S. president Donald Trump continued to attack the central bank by saying Powell is incompetent and harming the housing markets. The holiday in Japan led to thin trading in Asia Monday. The euro showed little reaction to Fitch downgrading France. The dollar was steady at $1.1732. It is still a long way off its recent high of $1.1780. The dollar fell 0.15% against the yen to 147.44 but was still within the range of 146.22-149.13 for the last month. The euro is supported by the steady outlook of EU rates. Last week, the European Central Bank said it was "in a good place" with its policy. This week, a number of ECB officials will be speaking. This includes President Christine Lagarde. CHINA DATA MISSES While the Nikkei closed for the holidays, futures were at 44,520. This was just below the close cash of 44,768, after having increased more than 4% in the last week. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan closed the last session flat. However, it had earlier reached a four-year-high. The South Korean stock market rose by 0.4%, reaching another record after the government dropped a plan to increase taxes on stocks. Investors redoubled their bets on Chinese technology shares in the wake of Sino-U.S. Trade Talks, and Chinese blue chips rose 0.5%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index also increased 0.2%. U.S. officials and Chinese officials held their first day of trade talks in Madrid, Spain on Sunday. They will continue the discussions on Monday. Trump said that he is still negotiating the divestiture date for Chinese short video app TikTok. The data released on Monday revealed that the Chinese economy has lost momentum in August. A number of indicators, from industrial production to retail sales, were below expectations. Home prices fell 0.3% more in August as well, continuing a downward trend which has been in place since early 2023. Lynn Song, ING’s Greater China chief economist, said: "Given that the economy has slowed down in recent months, there is a strong argument for additional short-term stimuli efforts." "We continue to see a high possibility for another 10bp rate cut and 50bp reserve-requirement-ratio cut in the coming weeks." Oil prices continued to rise on the commodities markets on Monday, as investors assessed the potential impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries which could disrupt the country's crude and fuel exports. Brent crude oil rose by 0.5%, to $67.33 per barrel. U.S. crude oil rose 0.5%, to $63 a barrel. Gold was unchanged at $3,644 per ounce. This is not far off from the all-time record high of $3.673.93 set last week. Due to the Japanese holiday, the cash Treasuries markets were closed. The yields on 10-year Treasuries were last at 4.07% after hitting a five-month high of 3.994% in the previous week.
Fed markets jittery as Mideast conflict continues
The global markets were nervous on Wednesday, as investors waited for the U.S. to announce its interest rate later that day. Meanwhile, the escalating hostilities in the Middle East added further pressure on an economy already struggling with the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies.
Brent crude prices were up in Asian trading but fell during European morning, and lastly were 0.2% higher at $76.61 per barrel.
European stocks fell 0.5%. Most major equity indices in the area also fell into the red as disruption in the Strait of Hormuz - a vital conduit for oil transported by sea - lowered growth prospects in energy importing nations.
The U.S. Dollar held firm in the face of a swirling mass geopolitical risks and economic concerns. It regained some of its status as a safe haven after taking hefty hits for months from President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, and worries about U.S. government debt.
The index that tracks the greenback's performance against other major currencies, including the euro and the Japanese yen, was stable but still on course for its first weekly increase in four weeks. The euro was slightly higher today but still on track for a slight weekly decline.
U.S. Equity Futures barely moved, as traders avoided placing bets about how the Federal Reserve planned to steer its monetary policy in the face of the intercurrents between weakening economic growth, rising geopolitical risks and inflationary tariffs.
The Fed is expected to maintain its main funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% it has been at since December, and to issue monetary projections known as dot plots that indicate it will not act decisively for several months.
ESCALATION
Israel's biggest ever air strikes against Iran, launched following its conclusion that Tehran was close to developing nuclear weapons pose a grave threat to the prospects of global economic growth as well as international security.
Ayatollah Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, rejected Trump's demand for Tehran to "receive unconditional surrender" on Wednesday.
The markets are trying hard to assess the risk of a large U.S. intervention. "It's difficult to know what the markets are thinking, but by looking at the oil prices and currencies they have priced in some risk of a very bad outcome," said Joseph Capurso.
Dollar stability also held back gold prices. The precious metal's price, which had been surging for months, remained flat at $3 386 per ounce.
UNCERTAINTY REIGNS
The Fed faces a difficult backdrop with the conflict in the Middle East and the prolonged uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariffs, as well as signs of fragility within the U.S. economic system.
Data released on Tuesday showed that U.S. retails sales dropped by 0.9% more than expected in May. This was the largest drop in four month, and labour market indicators also show weakness.
Harvey Bradley, co-head global rates at Insight Investment, said that markets will be closely monitoring the Fed's quarter dot plot to get clues as to how and when it will resume the cutting cycle.
He added that "tensions in the Middle East could threaten the inflation picture even further. It cannot be ruled-out that projections will adjust to reflect only one rate reduction this year."
U.S. Treasury Yields fell again on Wednesday after falling Tuesday as investors bought government bonds to respond to the recent developments in Israel and Iran. Treasury yields are the benchmark for interest rates on debt around the world. They fall as the price of securities increases.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate was about 2 basis point (bps) lower on Wednesday at 4.3731 percent, after falling roughly 6 basis points Tuesday. Geopolitical risk outweighed concerns about the U.S. government's debt becoming unsustainable.
The yield on the two-year bond, which is more sensitive than other yields to changes in expectations of Fed interest rates, remained at 3,948%. This reflects widespread expectations that Fed will not reduce borrowing costs too much in the coming months.
Investor uncertainty, which is closely monitored by the Fed, suggests that sentiment will likely remain choppy.
The VVIX Index, which is a measure of market sentiment and rises rapidly when traders anticipate a rapid shift in the mood, was at 115 on Tuesday, after a rapid rise from 89 around early June.
(source: Reuters)