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Fed markets jittery as Mideast conflict continues

The global markets were nervous on Wednesday, as investors waited for the U.S. to announce its interest rate later that day. Meanwhile, the escalating hostilities in the Middle East added further pressure on an economy already struggling with the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies.

Brent crude prices were up in Asian trading but fell during European morning, and lastly were 0.2% higher at $76.61 per barrel.

European stocks fell 0.5%. Most major equity indices in the area also fell into the red as disruption in the Strait of Hormuz - a vital conduit for oil transported by sea - lowered growth prospects in energy importing nations.

The U.S. Dollar held firm in the face of a swirling mass geopolitical risks and economic concerns. It regained some of its status as a safe haven after taking hefty hits for months from President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, and worries about U.S. government debt.

The index that tracks the greenback's performance against other major currencies, including the euro and the Japanese yen, was stable but still on course for its first weekly increase in four weeks. The euro was slightly higher today but still on track for a slight weekly decline.

U.S. Equity Futures barely moved, as traders avoided placing bets about how the Federal Reserve planned to steer its monetary policy in the face of the intercurrents between weakening economic growth, rising geopolitical risks and inflationary tariffs.

The Fed is expected to maintain its main funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% it has been at since December, and to issue monetary projections known as dot plots that indicate it will not act decisively for several months.

ESCALATION

Israel's biggest ever air strikes against Iran, launched following its conclusion that Tehran was close to developing nuclear weapons pose a grave threat to the prospects of global economic growth as well as international security.

Ayatollah Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, rejected Trump's demand for Tehran to "receive unconditional surrender" on Wednesday.

The markets are trying hard to assess the risk of a large U.S. intervention. "It's difficult to know what the markets are thinking, but by looking at the oil prices and currencies they have priced in some risk of a very bad outcome," said Joseph Capurso.

Dollar stability also held back gold prices. The precious metal's price, which had been surging for months, remained flat at $3 386 per ounce.

UNCERTAINTY REIGNS

The Fed faces a difficult backdrop with the conflict in the Middle East and the prolonged uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariffs, as well as signs of fragility within the U.S. economic system.

Data released on Tuesday showed that U.S. retails sales dropped by 0.9% more than expected in May. This was the largest drop in four month, and labour market indicators also show weakness.

Harvey Bradley, co-head global rates at Insight Investment, said that markets will be closely monitoring the Fed's quarter dot plot to get clues as to how and when it will resume the cutting cycle.

He added that "tensions in the Middle East could threaten the inflation picture even further. It cannot be ruled-out that projections will adjust to reflect only one rate reduction this year."

U.S. Treasury Yields fell again on Wednesday after falling Tuesday as investors bought government bonds to respond to the recent developments in Israel and Iran. Treasury yields are the benchmark for interest rates on debt around the world. They fall as the price of securities increases.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate was about 2 basis point (bps) lower on Wednesday at 4.3731 percent, after falling roughly 6 basis points Tuesday. Geopolitical risk outweighed concerns about the U.S. government's debt becoming unsustainable.

The yield on the two-year bond, which is more sensitive than other yields to changes in expectations of Fed interest rates, remained at 3,948%. This reflects widespread expectations that Fed will not reduce borrowing costs too much in the coming months.

Investor uncertainty, which is closely monitored by the Fed, suggests that sentiment will likely remain choppy.

The VVIX Index, which is a measure of market sentiment and rises rapidly when traders anticipate a rapid shift in the mood, was at 115 on Tuesday, after a rapid rise from 89 around early June.

(source: Reuters)