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Treasury yields are rising, stocks and the dollar are down, with focus on the tax bill and US downgrade

Treasury yields are rising, stocks and the dollar are down, with focus on the tax bill and US downgrade

The yields on longer-dated Treasury bonds rose, while the global stock indexes fell and the dollar weakened Monday. This was due to concerns over a U.S. federal tax bill, the U.S. government's debt and Moody's decision to downgrade the U.S. sovereign rating.

Moody's Investors Service lowered the United States' sovereign rating to "Aaa" late on Friday night, bringing attention to the country's worsening fiscal outlook.

A key congressional committee approved the massive tax-cut legislation of U.S. president Donald Trump on Sunday. Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives, who currently control it, will push for the bill's passage this week.

Investors are concerned that tax bills will cause debt to increase more than expected. The 30-year bond rate was up 9.4 basis point at 4.992%, after reaching 5.037%. This is the highest level since November 2023.

What Moody's has done is more symbolic than anything. Peter Cardillo is the chief market economist of Spartan Capital Securities, a New York-based brokerage.

"Yes, the yields are rising on news reports, and they could spike even higher. "But they're moving up also for other reasons," he said. "In general, the (stock market) is not reacting that much to Moody's." It's more of a market that has risen and is trying to consolidate recent moves.

Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury secretary, used Sunday's television interviews to dismiss Moody's downgrade while warning that trade partners would receive maximum tariffs if not they offered deals "in good faith".

Bessent will attend a G7 summit this week to continue discussions.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 59.42, or 0.15% to 42,592.31. The S&P 500 declined 24.46, or 0.41% to 5,933.92 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 119.50, or 0.62% to 19,091.89.

On Friday, the S&P 500 posted its fifth consecutive day of gains.

The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 1.73 points or 0.20% to 878.89. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell by 0.17% while Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 fell by 3.99 points or 0.18%

The MSCI broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan fell by 0.5%.

The Chinese economy is struggling, according to a mixed bag of data.

Trump's tariffs war has weakened consumer confidence. Analysts will be reviewing Home Depot and Target earnings this week to get an update on trends in spending.

Trump said that Walmart would be forced to raise prices because of the levies if it didn't "eat the tariffs".

The U.S. Dollar weakened widely, reaching a low of more than a week against the safe haven currencies, including the Swiss Franc, yen and euro. The dollar fell 0.38% against the Japanese yen to 145.06.

U.S. Rates Not Falling So Fast

Raphael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, told CNBC that the central bank might only be able reduce interest rates by one quarter point for the remainder of the year due to concerns over rising inflation caused by increased import taxes.

In an interview that was published on the weekend, Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank said that the recent decline in the dollar reflected a lack of confidence in U.S. policy.

Brent crude reached $65.45 a barrel, an increase of 0.06% for the day. U.S. Crude rose by 0.24%, to $62.64 per barrel.

Spot gold increased 1% to $3.234.34 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures increased 1.54% to $3.231.10 per ounce.

(source: Reuters)