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MORNING BID EUROPE - So, China should consume less and the US more?

MORNING BID EUROPE - So, China should consume less and the US more?

Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.

A miss in China's retail sales has been the biggest disappointment of the day for Asia. It shows how far China still needs to go to move away from export-driven economics to one that is driven by domestic demand. Beijing doesn't seem to want to change this. It's clear that consumers in China aren't buying.

Donald Trump tells Americans that they will have to do without dolls and pencils while promoting trade policies which indirectly force Chinese consumers to purchase more.

Treasury Secretary Bessent of the United States was on hand Sunday to warn potential trade partners that if they don't offer deals in "good faith", they will be sent a letter with a tariff rate. He implied that the U.S. has limited time to deal only with 18 of its top trading partners and that the rest may be swept away by the wind.

The effective tariff on U.S. imported goods is still around 13%. This is the highest level since the 1930s, and equates to a tax increase of 1.2% GDP. Trump wants Walmart to absorb this tax in their margins, rather than pass it onto voting customers.

This week, it will be interesting to hear what Target, Lowe's, and Home Depot say about this idea. It reminds me of the kind of price setting that would occur in a Soviet style command-control economic system.

Trump is relying on the tariff revenue to help fund his tax-cut package. This package has been approved by a House of Representatives Committee and could be voted upon later this week. The bill could add up to $5 trillion in debt to the U.S. over the next decade. Moody's, which was among the other rating agencies to downgrade the U.S. last week, cited this as a reason.

Since the financial crisis when the subprime scandal tarnished the reputation of certain agencies and funds abandoned mandates for triple-A, ratings have not been as important.

The news has sparked a reaction among foreign investors who are already displeased with the unpredictable nature of U.S. policies. Wall Street futures have fallen by 1% to 2% today. The yields on ten-year bonds are up by around 5 basis points, and the dollar has fallen a little.

Euro bulls are relieved that the unexpected victory of a pro-EU candidate at the Romanian election, as well as the victories by centrist parties from Poland and Portugal, will bring them relief.

Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact

Final CPI data from the EU for April

Bank of Dallas president Lorie Logan and Bank of Minneapolis president Neel Kahkari are among the Fed speakers.

(source: Reuters)