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Thyssenkrupp Steel Unit cancels contract with HKM and remains open for sale
Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe, the continent's 2nd largest steelmaker, announced on Friday that it had decided to terminate a contract with HKM. This is a step further to sever ties to the business, which it owns in part and wants to sell. Thyssenkrupp has been under pressure to streamline its steel business due to high energy prices and low-cost Asian competitors. It warned that it might have to close or sell HKM, which is a 50-30-20 joint enterprise between Thyssenkrupp and Salzgitter. Dennis Grimm said that due to the market conditions we would have to reduce production capacity from 11.5 million metric tones of steel at the moment to a target shipping of between 8.7 and 9 million metric tones in the future. Grimm added that the cancellation of HKM would result in a savings of up to triple-million euros. The cancellation of the agreement means that TKSE will no longer be obligated to purchase around 2.5 million metric tonnes of steel from HKM per year. This obligation expires on December 31, 2032. Grimm stated that TKSE - in which Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky holds a 20% stake - remained open to discussions with potential buyers after recent talks with a buyer fell through. (Reporting and Editing by Louise Heavens, Christoph Steitz)
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Oil prices fall as China retaliates against Trump tariffs
Oil prices and global stock markets fell again on Friday, as China retaliated against U.S. president Donald Trump's new tariffs. Worries about a long-term trade war increased. The Nasdaq composite was heading toward a bear-market, and the pan-European STOXX 600 confirmed that it was in correction mode as the trade conflict fueled global recession fears. S&P 500 Companies have lost more than $4 trillion since Trump announced his tariffs on late Wednesday. This is a record-breaking two-day drop for the benchmark. It surpasses a two day loss of $3.3 trillion that occurred in March 2020 when the pandemic ravaged global markets. Investors flocked to government bonds for safety, while traders bet on the Federal Reserve cutting rates and other central banks. China responded to Trump's new tariffs by imposing additional 34% levies on American goods on Friday, which confirmed investor fears of a global trade war. Trump imposed a tariff of 10% on the majority of U.S. imports, and even higher rates on dozens more countries. This is the most severe trade barrier in over 100 years. Rick Meckler is a partner at Cherry Lane Investments in New Vernon, New Jersey, a family-owned investment firm. "For investors who thought it was only a negotiation, while this may still be true to some extent, it is getting awfully more detailed and dangerous for companies." The fact that the U.S. economy created far more jobs in March than was expected did not brighten the mood. Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair, said at a Business Journals Conference in Arlington, Virginia that Trump's tariffs were "larger than anticipated" and that the economic fallout would be similar, with higher inflation and slower GDP. He said that the U.S. Central Bank does not predict a decline in its outlook, but acknowledged private sector forecasters are changing their views on this front. Peter Cardillo is the chief market economist of Spartan Capital Securities, a New York-based brokerage. Companies that have exposure to China fell as well. Apple, Nvidia, and Amazon.com all fell sharply. Globally, bank shares fell as concerns about a possible recession increased. S&P 500 Financial Index was down by 6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,601.47 or 3.96% to 38,938.99. The S&P 500 fell 250.57 or 4.64% to 5,144.87. And the Nasdaq Composite lost 787.62 or 4.77% to 15,760.90. The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 37.21 points or 4.61% to 770.43. The pan-European STOXX closed 5.1% lower. This was its largest daily loss since COVID-19 fueled the selloff of 2020. The index dropped nearly 12% since its all-time March 3 closing high, which confirmed it was in correction. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 2.8% overnight for a second session running. U.S. crude fell 7.74%, to $61.77 per barrel. Brent dropped to $65.33 a barrel, a drop of 6.86%. After the U.S. payroll data, the dollar rose against the euro and the yen. The dollar index rose 0.7% on Friday after Thursday's biggest drop since November 2022. Last time, the euro dropped 0.65% to $1.0979. The dollar gained 0.08% against the Japanese yen to reach 146.18. Investors are unsure where to invest their money after years of massive flows into U.S. stock markets and an booming American economy. This helped to drive a strong rush towards the government bond markets. The yield of the 10-year Treasury bill, which is considered to be the benchmark in the U.S., fell by 12.2 basis points from 3.86% to 3.933%. Prices and yields are inversely related. The benchmark yield for the Eurozone, which is the German 10-year bond, dropped as much as 17 basis points during the day. Traders expect central banks to adopt more accommodating policies. Money market futures are pricing in a cumulative Federal Reserve rate cut of 110 basis points by the end this year. This is compared to about 75 basis points a week ago. The traders also increased their bets for Bank of England and European Central Bank decreases. Meckler stated that "a lot of investors who I have spoken to said, in this type of environment, we should just go cash and wait,"
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Natural gas and soy prices plummet as China reacts
The oil price plunged to its lowest level since 2021 on Friday, and other commodities such as natural gas and soya beans also fell. This was due to China's retaliation against the aggressive tariffs imposed by U.S. president Donald Trump. Beijing announced an additional 34% levy for all U.S. products, retaliating after Trump announced that a 10% minimum duty would be applied to most U.S. imported goods. The duties were significantly higher for dozens countries, including China. Bjarne Shieldrop is chief commodities analyst for SEB. He said, "This is China's first explicit escalation, and they are not backing off, they have upped the game." He expects further retaliation by Trump. As tensions increased, fears grew that tariffs would lead to a trade war worldwide. This could impact the economy and reduce demand for certain commodities. The U.S. levies excluded energy. However, the retaliatory action by China includes all U.S. products, including export restrictions on certain rare earths. According to Kpler data and EIA, the U.S. exports a lot of energy to China. Wall Street benchmarks were heavily sold, with the Dow Jones on course to reach a correction and the Nasdaq set to enter a downturn. Brent futures dropped $5.29 or 7.5% to $64.85 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas intermediate crude futures declined $5.57 or 8.3% to $61.83 per barrel. The benchmarks for oil were set to the lowest close in the last four years, since the beginning of the pandemic. Gas prices have also fallen in Europe and Asia. The European gas price plunged to its lowest level in more than six months. The Dutch front-month contract fell by 3.02 euros or 7.7%, at 36.45 Euros per Megawatt Hour (MWh), or $11.78/mmBtu. The Asian spot prices for liquefied gas (LNG), too, remained at the lowest levels in over six months. SOYBEANS and GRAINS The Chicago Board of Trade Soybean Futures fell by more than 2 percent on Friday, as China's tariffs against U.S. products are expected to stop trade between the two countries. China is the biggest buyer of U.S. soyabeans. CBOT soybeans fell 2.3% to $9.88 per bushel by 1304 GMT, after falling to a three-month low price of $9.84. Prices of grain also dropped. CBOT Wheat fell 1.9% to $5.26 per bushel, while Corn lost 1% at $4.52-3/4 per bushel. Tariffs on Chinese grain and soybeans will prevent sales to China. "There will be no U.S. grain or soybean sales to China until the tariff issue is resolved," said one European trader. The trade war that began during Trump's first presidency in 2018 has already put pressure on the demand for U.S. agriculture products. Beijing raised tariffs last month on U.S. goods worth $21 billion in response to Washington’s earlier round on Chinese products.
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China retaliates against Trump tariffs by dumping oil and stocks
The Nasdaq Composite is heading towards a bear market as China retaliated against U.S. president Donald Trump's new tariffs, and concerns about a trade war escalated. The fact that the U.S. economy created far more jobs in March than was expected did not brighten the mood. China responded to Trump's new tariffs by announcing that it would add an additional 34% tax on American goods. This confirms investor fears of a global trade war. Trump imposed a 10% tariff Wednesday on the majority of U.S. imports, and even higher levies against dozens of other countries. This is the most severe trade barrier in over 100 years. Rick Meckler is a partner at Cherry Lane Investments in New Vernon, New Jersey, an investment family office. "The details are getting more and more complex, which is dangerous for the companies. Investors rushed to government bonds for safety, and traders increased their bets that the Federal Reserve would cut rates. Companies that have exposure to China fell as well. Apple, Nvidia, and Amazon.com were all down sharply. Globally, bank shares fell as concerns about a recession grew. S&P 500 Financial Index was down by 5.1% on Saturday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,230.72, or 3.04% to 39,315.21, while the S&P 500 declined 190.89, or 3.54% to 5,205.34, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 604.27 points, 3.59% to 15,954.66. The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 30.80 points or 3.81% to 776.84. The pan-European STOXX Index fell 5.2%. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 2.8% overnight for a second session running. U.S. crude fell 8.5% to $61.24 per barrel. Brent dropped 7.66%, falling to $64.77 a barrel. After the non-farm payroll data, the U.S. Dollar recovered against the Euro and reduced losses versus yen. The dollar index rose 0.5% Friday, after its worst fall since November 20,22 on Thursday. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 228,000 last month. Economists predicted payrolls would rise by 135,000. Last week, the euro fell 0.47% to $1.0998. The dollar fell 0.4% against the Japanese yen to 145.47. Investors are unsure where to invest their money after years of massive flows into U.S. stock markets and an booming American economy. This helped to drive a strong rush towards the government bond markets. The yield of the 10-year Treasury bill, which is considered to be a benchmark in the U.S., fell by 12.2 basis points from 3.86% to 3.933%. Prices and yields are inversely related. Traders expect central banks to adopt more accommodating policies. Money market futures are pricing in a cumulative Federal Reserve rate cut of 110 basis points by the end this year. This is compared to about 75 basis points a week ago. The traders also increased their bets for Bank of England and European Central Bank decreases. Meckler stated that "a lot of investors who I have spoken to said, in this type of environment, we should just go cash and wait,"
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Trump's tariffs are forcing trading partners into a corner
The only option for U.S. trade partners in the current trade war with Donald Trump is to sue. Most countries that are hit by tariffs of 10%-50% on their exports, to the dominant economic superpower in the world, lack the firepower or political will to fight back, according to government officials, economists, and trade experts. The vast majority of Trump's trading partners didn't immediately respond and instead indicated their willingness to negotiate with him a compromise that would save face. Even those who have counter-measured left the door open to negotiations. China, who on Friday imposed an additional 34% tariff on all U.S. products, and Canada, which took limited retaliation are expected to negotiate sooner or later. This is because U.S. consumer spending is so significant globally - two thirds larger than EU consumption according to World Bank statistics. Governments have few options other than talking to protect their export industries or broader economies. Spending on state aid, or broader economic stimuli -- Spain announced on Thursday a EUR14 Billion ($15.5 Billion) aid package -- or looking for greener pastures in trade are some of the options. German officials are looking at Mexico, Canada and India. It will be difficult for some countries to pay for the subsidies, and other financial assistance required to avoid economic downgrades, warnings of profit, and layoffs. Economists anticipate Beijing will increase fiscal stimulus in order to support the economy. The country sells more than 400 billion dollars worth of goods to the United States each year. According to Chinese policy advisors, it will also attempt to develop other markets for export. One Chinese advisor, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the subject, said: "We must strengthen our coordination with ASEAN and Japan, South Korea, EU, UK." Trump's "Liberation Day", or "Tariff Day", tariffs have increased the tax on Chinese exports imposed since Trump was inaugurated in January to 54%. The trade advisor said that despite China's economic arsenal -- its financial power, dominance of vital mineral and metal production in advanced industries, and centrality to the global supply chain -- a negotiated ceasefire is expected. It could be a long time, given Washington's animosity towards Beijing. However, there are rumors that Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping may meet in the United States by June. Economic shocks may bring countries without China's influence to the table earlier. India, which was hit with a 27 percent tariff, has already begun talks and does not intend to retaliate, according to a government official. Government sources say that India made concessions before the new tariffs were announced and is willing to reduce tariffs for more than half of U.S. imported goods worth $23 billion as part of a first phase deal. Vietnam is also expected to prioritize negotiations with little room for trade diversification or subsidies. Leif Schneider, the head of the international law firm Luther, said that it could use the exposure some U.S. companies have in Vietnam to exert pressure on the Trump administration. He added that "Vietnam is likely to prioritize negotiations in order to avoid an economic crisis." It is the sixth largest exporter to the United States despite a 46% tax, due to its popularity as an alternative to China for manufacturers looking to diversify away from China. Southeast Asia as a whole has nowhere to go. The efforts of the government to increase trade with China and Japan, as well as other neighbours, have resulted in an alphabet soup trade groupings that facilitate trade. However they fall short of compensating a U.S. shock. China, Japan, and South Korea met for the first time in five years to discuss regional trade before Trump announced his decision. There is some doubt that it will be successful, especially since these three countries are not net contributors of global demand, but exporting giants. THE LAYOFFS STARTED The European Union is already feeling abandoned by Trump over security. It said that the common market, which has 450 million members, was prepared to retaliate to Trump's tariff of 20% against the EU and to also look at other markets. Robert Habeck, German Economy Minister, said that "Forging Alliances... is the Order of the Day." He singled out Mexico, Canada, and India as places where closer trading relations would be beneficial. But trade deals can take a long time -- time that Europe, and other countries, don't have. After 25 years of talks, the EU and South America’s Mercosur bloc announced a free-trade agreement in December. Trump's tariffs are reciprocal and take effect Wednesday. German economists believe that it takes time to rebuild an economy in order to deal with global protectionism. They say that structural reforms, like more competition and technology investment, are preferable to government stimulus. The economist Robin Winkler of Deutsche Bank said that fiscal and monetary policies could not do much to counter the trade shock in the short-term. The German bank Berenberg claims that a significant part of the U.S. new tariffs could be reversed in negotiations. Europe would offer concessions, such as more contracts for U.S. defense firms. Canada has been spared any additional tariffs, but is still reeling after the 25% U.S. tariffs imposed on its steel, aluminium and auto exports. Canada spends a lot of money on subsidies that are funded by its own tariffs in retaliation, but it still feels the pain. Stellantis NV, a European automaker, announced on Thursday that it would halt production at a Canadian plant. Companies have also reported that they've already begun layoffs, and are shifting their focus to new markets. Some countries have complained to the World Trade Organisation (WTO), but trade experts consider that a weak option, especially since Trump paralysed the WTO's top appeals court in his first term. The Geneva-based body is not seen as an appropriate venue to renegotiate tariff disputes. "If they continue to push protectionism and stick to this one-sided view, I don't think they will be returning to the WTO anytime soon for multilateral negotiation," said Marco Molina of the consulting firm Molina & Associates, and former deputy permanent rep of Guatemala at the WTO. "That's a shame, because the WTO is designed to deal with issues like this."
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Andy Home: Trump, tariffs, and tin.
The LME Base Metals Complex got a sneak preview of what to expect. The threat of similar tariffs on copper caused a transatlantic price gap that was unprecedented. The micro tariff turbulence has now been accompanied by macro tariff turmoil, as the markets are terrified of a full blown trade war. This week, the London Metal Exchange index of base metals fell 6% as reciprocal tariffs became a reality. Only one metal has been spared the tariff tsunami. Tin continues to perform better than the rest of LME's pack, boosted by its own supply-chain chaos. Shocks Rock Tin - Supply LME's three-month tin increased by 25% in the first quarter 2025, surpassing gold's incredible run. Tin traders have been on a roller coaster ride due to a series of supply shocks. The market fell on the news that the giant Man Maw Tin Mine in Myanmar was reopening after an 18-month hiatus. It then rebounded when Alphamin Resources said it would close its Bisie mine, in the Congo, due to the increasing insurgency. Tin has soared even more after the devastating earthquake in Myanmar that casts new doubt on Man Maw’s return. Investors are rushing to get in on the action. The long positions of funds have reached record highs. The LME stock market is slipping and the time-spreads are tightening. This adds to the volatile mix. The bulls should also note that China has a plentiful supply of tin. Shanghai Futures Exchange has seen a 47% rise in stocks this year, and the 9,872 metric ton stock is at its highest level since September. MINDING THE COPER GAP Since February, when Trump launched a national-security investigation into copper imports, the U.S. has imposed tariffs on copper trading. Arbitrage has been played out between the CME U.S. Customs-cleared Price and the LME Global Price. The market has tried to guess when and how much copper tariffs would be implemented. The CME's record premium over LME Copper has led to a massive movement of metal into the United States. It remains to be determined how much metal makes it through U.S. Customs before tariffs become effective. CME prices that were at record highs and the physical market disruption initially revived bullish sentiment, but LME copper is now below $9,000 per ton as concerns grow over the adverse effects of U.S. tariffs on global manufacturing. ALUMINIUM PREMIUM ACTION Tariff trades have been reflected in premiums for regional markets. Last month, the U.S. Midwest Premium widened to over $900 per ton above the LME Basis Price as the market priced the increase in U.S. Import Tariffs from 10% up to 25%. The European premiums have dropped sharply in contrast to the U.S., suggesting that physical metal has already been diverted away from this market. Aluminium was expected to be a big seller at the beginning of this year, but market signals have been mixed and the price has fallen in retaliatory tariff reactions. NICKEL ATTENDS INDONESIA Nickel spent the first quarter of 2025 stuck in a wide range between $15,000 and $17,000 per ton. As overproduction in Indonesia floods the refined nickel chain, the price of nickel has fallen. From 11% in 2024, the amount of Chinese Nickel stored at the LME has increased to over 50%. This metal is a product of Indonesian raw material that was processed in China. Indonesia is now producing its own refined steel, which can also be found in LME sheds. Nickel will continue to be oversupplied until Indonesia limits its production growth. The question is if the Indonesian flood will continue to wash over the refined metal segment or whether it will revert back to the lower-grade class II segment. All depends on Indonesian margins. Heavy Stocks Weigh on Heavy Metal Talking about high stock prices. Last month, someone cancelled 120,000 tons LME lead stock. However, there was no response from the market in terms of price or time spreads. Nobody thinks that the physical metal market is short of this much metal. Lead is experiencing the type of LME warehouse arbitration that comes from oversupply and elevated stock levels, which are now 331,000 tons, up from 21,500 tonnes at the beginning of 2023. Lead's price has remained stable despite the large inventory, but this could be due to its better condition than zinc. ZINC MINE REBOUND Zinc is consistently underperforming the rest of LME since the beginning of the year, despite the fact that exchange stocks are falling steadily. The market seems to be more interested in the zinc raw material narrative than its nuanced refine metal dynamics. In 2024, the mined zinc production will fall by 2.8% on an annual basis. The raw materials supply chain will tighten to the point where smelter charges are negative in the second part of the year. In 2025, restarts and new mining are expected to produce a significant recovery. This new wave of mining supply appears to be gaining momentum. The smelter treatment charge, which had fallen to zero in 2024 due to a lack of mined concentrates, has now risen to $35 per ton. The demand for zinc was flat last year. With little hope of a recovery within the global construction sector, which is a major use for zinc, it's expected that higher mined production will lead to an oversupply on the refined metal market. These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.
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Tariff uncertainty causes Canada to lose jobs for the first time since 2022 in March
Data released on Friday showed that Canada's employment total fell in March and the unemployment rate increased. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and the subsequent implementation of them forced some companies to stop hiring and resulted in layoffs. Last month, Canada lost a net of 32,600 positions, its first decline in over three years. Statistics Canada reported that the decline was primarily due to a sharp drop in full-time employment. This was after a relatively flat growth of jobs in February, and a strong gain of 211,000 jobs between November and January. The unemployment rate increased to 6.7% from 6.6% one month earlier. Andrew Grantham is a senior economist with CIBC Capital Markets. He wrote in a recent report that "the wheels could be falling off the Canadian labour market." Analysts polled had predicted a net gain of 10,000 jobs and estimated that the unemployment rate would rise to 6.7%. The majority of economists expected that the job market would start to show signs of weakness as companies held off on hiring and investing due to the uncertain situation with tariffs. U.S. president Donald Trump imposed a 25 percent tariff on Canadian aluminum and steel in March, and increased import duties for cars and parts due to non-U.S. contents and non-compliance of a free-trade agreement. He announced reciprocal tariffs that would affect all U.S. trade partners. Analysts have predicted that these reciprocal tariffs, and the retaliation of many countries, will hit the global economic system hard, sending many countries into recession. Unemployment may peak. The Canadian dollar is trading at 1.4194 U.S. dollars, or 70.45 U.S. Cents, down from 1.4194 the day before. This represents a steep increase in the probability of another Bank of Canada interest rate cut on April 16. It was only 25% the day before. Last month, it was reported that Canadian job losses were already underway in certain sectors. Economists believe that layoffs are only going to increase as reciprocal tariffs between trading partners take effect. Grantham stated that "we continue to expect further weakness in the employment sector, especially in sectors directly affected by U.S. Tariffs. This could lead to the unemployment rate reaching slightly over 7% in the second half." Statscan reported that the increase in the unemployment rate or the number unemployed people as a percent of the workforce was the first since November. Statscan reported that there were 1.5million unemployed in total in March. This is an increase of 36,000 for the month, and 167,000 over the past year. Last month, the Bank of Canada stated that Canadians are more concerned about their financial and job security as a result of trade tensions and plan to spend more carefully. Statscan reported that 44% of the unemployed had been laid off within the past 12 months. 18,4% of these people last worked in construction, and 12.4% in wholesale or retail. It clarified, however, that the layoff rate for March - the percentage of employed people who are unemployed in the month following a layoff -- was 0.7%. This is similar to pre-pandemic levels. The Canadian central bank closely monitors the average hourly wage of permanent employees to gauge inflationary trends. In March, it was 3.5%, up from 4% in February. Reporting by Promit MUkerjee, Editing by Dale Smith Mark Porter and Paul Simao
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EU carbon market emission drop by 5% in 2024 on track to 2030 target
The European Commission announced on Friday that carbon dioxide emissions under the EU's emissions trading scheme (ETS), which regulates the emissions of greenhouse gases, will fall by 5% by 2024 due to reductions in the electricity sector. The EU ETS regulates around 45% of the greenhouse gas emissions of the European Union. It is the flagship program of the 27-nation EU to combat global warming through charging for the rights to emit CO2. Carbon allowances are a way for manufacturers, power companies, and airlines to pay the carbon they emit. The EU Commission stated that "ETS emission levels are now about 50% below 2005 and on track to reach the 2030 target of 62%." The biggest fall in emissions was seen in the power sector. Emissions dropped by 12% compared to 2023 levels. The Commission stated that "This reduction was due to a rise in electricity production by renewables of 8%, nuclear by 5% and a decline in coal and gas by 8%." The emissions from industry were stable. A 5% reduction in the cement sector was offset by an increase of 7% in the fertilizer segment. The Commission attributed the increase in aviation sector emissions to an expansion of geographic coverage, including non-domestic flight. Last year, the ETS was extended to include maritime emissions with 72 million tonnes of CO2 being reported by 2024. Benchmark prices for the EU ETS dropped around 4.5% to 63 Euros per metric ton on Friday afternoon, in line with sharp drops in other markets following China's announcement of retaliatory duties on U.S. products, fueling global recession concerns. Prices have dropped by around 25% from their peak in January of this year. (Reporting from London by Susanna Twiddale, additional reporting by Sudip K-Gupta, Bart Meijer and Alex Richardson; editing by Alex Richardson and Franklin Paul).
Dollar and shares tumble as Trump tariffs cause recession fears
The stock market limped into the weekend on Friday. The dollar was headed for its worst month-end in a while, and gold flirted near a record high as investors worried that U.S. president Donald Trump's tariffs could tip the global economic system into recession.
Asian shares have struggled to recover the heavy losses of Thursday's session. The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell by 1.85%. This is a continuation of its 2.8% decline from last Thursday.
MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan fell 0.26% on thin trading, as markets in China Hong Kong and Taiwan were closed for the holiday.
Overnight, the S&P 500 lost $2.4 trillion, which is their largest one-day drop since the global coronavirus outbreak on March 16, 2020. Other Wall Street indexes also saw sharp drops.
Investors rushed to safety assets after Trump announced Washington's highest trade barriers in over 100 years on Wednesday.
David Bahnsen is the chief investment officer of The Bahnsen Group. He said that if tariffs remain unchanged, a recession in Q2 or Q3 is possible as well as a bear market.
The question is whether President Trump wants to take these policies off the table if we experience a stock market bear market. We think Trump will pivot and focus on companies making significant investments in America, but it is unclear if that would change the market sentiment.
U.S. Stock Futures stabilized during the early Asian session. Nasdaq futures rose 0.05% while S&P500 futures declined 0.06%.
In response to the increased fears of a global economic recession, especially in the United States of America, traders have stepped up their bets on more Federal Reserve rate reductions this year. They believe that policymakers will have to ease up more aggressively in order to boost growth in the largest economy in the world.
Fed funds futures point to a roughly 96 basis point reduction by December. This was closer to 70 bps just before Trump announced his tariffs on Wednesday.
David Doyle, Macquarie Group's head of economics, said that central banks were not equipped to handle stagflation because the effects of lower growth and higher inflation push policy in opposite directions.
This means that a stronger core inflation will likely limit the extent of the Fed's policy response due to the headwinds for growth created."
Investors will be watching for Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Friday. They are interested in his assessment of the U.S. economic situation and the outlook on policy following Trump's latest tariff salvo.
The dollar rose 0.09% to 146.23 yen on the foreign exchange markets, after falling 2.2% the previous day, its steepest drop in over two years.
The euro remained at $1.1043 following a 1.9% increase on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc was last at $0.8591 after also gaining 2.6% on that day.
The dollar was at 102.04 against a basket. This is a new six-month low.
The U.S. Dollar has been weakening this year due to a combination of heavy long positions built up at the end of last year and the renewed focus on U.S. economic growth risks, which have accompanied the tariff talks for weeks.
Bond prices have also soared as investors flee to safe assets.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury benchmark yield, which had fallen by 14 basis points in the previous session, was little changed last week at 4.0436%. Bond yields are inversely related to bond prices.
Spot gold, meanwhile, was nearing a record high of $3,112,81 per ounce and on course for a fifth consecutive weekly gain as concerns about the impact Trump's tariffs would have on the global economic system boosted its appeal as a safe-haven metal.
Brent crude futures were down 0.13% to $70.05 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude futures dropped 0.15% at $66.85 a barrel.
(source: Reuters)