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MORNING BID EUROPE - Hey, Asia also has tech shares

MORNING BID EUROPE - Hey, Asia also has tech shares

Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.

The Asian share market has started the week on a positive note, despite a holiday that has reduced liquidity in U.S. stock markets. Hong Kong again led the charge, adding another 1.4% to last week's 7.5% jump amid optimism over potential low-cost AI application following the DeepSeek announcement.

Goldman Sachs raised its outlook for Chinese growth and stocks. The firm argues that widespread AI adoption could increase earnings per share in China by 2.5% annually over the next decade. This would increase the fair value of Chinese stocks by 15 to 20 percent and bring in $200 billion worth of funds.

Alibaba's stock has risen by 24% on the news that it will partner with Apple in China to offer artificial intelligence services for iPhones. Alibaba will report earnings on Thursday, and options suggest that the share price could move up or down 7.5% depending on the results.

STOXX 600, the pan-European index, has attracted global funds as well. It's been climbing for eight weeks straight and is up 8% from the beginning of the year. EUROSTOXX Futures and DAX Futures both moved a little higher on Monday.

The Nikkei was muted in Japan by the rising yen. This news, along with a 2.8% annualised increase in economic growth for fourth quarter, offset Nikkei's Nikkei. Markets still indicate that the Bank of Japan will only raise rates again in March. This is because the main wage negotiations are not yet over.

Even a move in May is priced at only a 1 in 4 chance. This seems way too low, given the data and BOJ's hawkish comments.

The surprise in the GDP helped push the yen up to 151.55 dollars. The U.S. dollar has been in a downward spiral since the January retail sales data, which was surprisingly weak, shattered the "economic exceptionalism" myth.

The markets are now betting on two Fed rate reductions this year, rather than just one. A move in June is better than 50-50.

This week, both the Australian and New Zealand central banks will hold their policy meetings. The former is expected to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points while the latter is expected to do so by double that amount.

The geopolitics were in the spotlight with reports that the Russia-Ukraine war will be discussed in Saudi Arabia next week. However, the exact participants are still unclear.

French President Emmanuel Macron is hosting an emergency European summit Monday, after U.S. officials said that Europe had no role to play in ending the conflict. A peace process will be conducted by the U.S.

Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact

Eurozone Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels

Appearances of Fed Bank of Philadelphia president Patrick Harker, and Fed Board governor Michelle Bowman

(source: Reuters)