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Russell: China's steel production will slump to a 7-year-low as iron ore exports reach record levels.

China's steel output in November was the 'weakest month' in almost two years. This will result in the world's largest producer of metal posting its 'lowest annual production since 2018'.

Imports of iron ore, the key raw material for steel, are expected to reach a new record in 2025. This will surpass the previous high of 1,24 billion metric tonnes, set in 2024.

Iron ore stocks were restocked amid low seaborne prices, and there was optimism that Beijing’s stimulus measures would eventually increase steel demand.

While the iron ore sector may be experiencing a positive sentiment, it is still facing the reality of a weakening demand for steel in the important property construction sector as well as in manufacturing.

China's steel output?fell in November to 69.87 millions tons, down 10.9% on the same month one year ago, according to data released by the government on December 15

The output was at its lowest since December 2023, the sixth consecutive month of decline.

The steel production for the first 11 month of this year was 891.67 millions tons, down by 4% compared to the same period in 2024.

If the daily steel production in December is similar to that of November, then total 2025 production will be around 964 millions tons.

This would be the lowest production since?2018 when 928.3 millions tons were produced. It would also represent a drop of approximately 4% compared to the 1.005 million tons in 2024.

Steel prices have largely mirrored the weakening of production, with Shanghai Exchange rebar contracts closing at 3,081 Yuan ($437.64), down 10.1% from the close of 3,529 Yuan on July 30 when the current downward trend began.

IRON STRENGTH

The price of iron ore has taken a different path. Singapore Exchange contracts have been rising since July 1, when they hit a low of $93.35 per ton, a 10-month-low.

The price of a ton closed at $106.25 on Tuesday. This is a slight drop from the previous high close for this year, which was $107.90 in December.

Prices have risen in tandem with the strength of imports during the second half. November arrivals were 110.54 million tonnes, an 8.5% increase from a year ago.

Iron ore imports for the first 11 months were up by 1.4%, to 1.139 billion tonnes. This means that they need to surpass 98 millions tons in December, to beat the record total of 1.237 bn tons set in 2024.

The commodity analysts Kpler estimate that China's iron ore imports in December will be around 121,000,000?tons.

How long will iron ore imports outperform steel?

It depends on the amount of inventory that Chinese steel mills are willing to increase. They have been increasing in recent weeks.

SteelHome monitors stockpiles in Chinese ports The week ending December 12 saw a rise of 143.8 million tonnes, compared to 142.4 million in the previous week.

The price of corn has risen by 10.5% since the 18-month-low of 130.1 millions tons in early August. It is now approaching the 27-month high of 151.8 from July last year.

Iron ore imports are likely to be reduced in the next few months, as inventories have a limited capacity for growth.

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These are the views of a columnist who writes for.

(source: Reuters)