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Zimbabwe abolishes the gold royalty increase and raises threshold for windfall tax
Zimbabwe reversed its plans to double the gold royalty rate from 5% to 10%. This was revealed in a new 2026 budget bill on Wednesday. According to the revised budget, the 5% royalty rate will continue to be applicable to gold prices between $1200 and $5,000 an ounce. This was approved in the early morning hours of Wednesday by the lower chamber of Zimbabwe's parliament after a lengthy debate. Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube proposed in his budget speech of last month that the gold royalty rate be doubled to 10% for gold sold above $2,501 per ounce. He told the lawmakers during the late-night debate on the budget that the?10% rate of royalty would only be applicable if the price of bullion exceeded $5,000 an ounce. He added that small-scale miner's royalty rates would remain at a lower level of up to 2 percent. Caledonia Mining Plc, a large-scale miner in southern Zimbabwe that produces 80,000 ounces of gold per year, has warned about the impact on profitability of the proposed royalty increase. Caledonia says the increase in royalties and other changes to Zimbabwe fiscal regime will also hinder plans to develop their $500 million Bilboes Project, which is Zimbabwe's largest gold mine. In the 11 months leading up to November 2025 the southern African nation produced 42?metric tons, which is a record, surpassing the previous 37?metric tons set in 2024. Industry groups warned that the government’s increase in royalty would hinder efforts to attract investments and reposition Zimbabwe as one of Africa's leading gold producers.
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Russell: China's steel production will slump to a 7-year-low as iron ore exports reach record levels.
China's steel output in November was the 'weakest month' in almost two years. This will result in the world's largest producer of metal posting its 'lowest annual production since 2018'. Imports of iron ore, the key raw material for steel, are expected to reach a new record in 2025. This will surpass the previous high of 1,24 billion metric tonnes, set in 2024. Iron ore stocks were restocked amid low seaborne prices, and there was optimism that Beijing’s stimulus measures would eventually increase steel demand. While the iron ore sector may be experiencing a positive sentiment, it is still facing the reality of a weakening demand for steel in the important property construction sector as well as in manufacturing. China's steel output?fell in November to 69.87 millions tons, down 10.9% on the same month one year ago, according to data released by the government on December 15 The output was at its lowest since December 2023, the sixth consecutive month of decline. The steel production for the first 11 month of this year was 891.67 millions tons, down by 4% compared to the same period in 2024. If the daily steel production in December is similar to that of November, then total 2025 production will be around 964 millions tons. This would be the lowest production since?2018 when 928.3 millions tons were produced. It would also represent a drop of approximately 4% compared to the 1.005 million tons in 2024. Steel prices have largely mirrored the weakening of production, with Shanghai Exchange rebar contracts closing at 3,081 Yuan ($437.64), down 10.1% from the close of 3,529 Yuan on July 30 when the current downward trend began. IRON STRENGTH The price of iron ore has taken a different path. Singapore Exchange contracts have been rising since July 1, when they hit a low of $93.35 per ton, a 10-month-low. The price of a ton closed at $106.25 on Tuesday. This is a slight drop from the previous high close for this year, which was $107.90 in December. Prices have risen in tandem with the strength of imports during the second half. November arrivals were 110.54 million tonnes, an 8.5% increase from a year ago. Iron ore imports for the first 11 months were up by 1.4%, to 1.139 billion tonnes. This means that they need to surpass 98 millions tons in December, to beat the record total of 1.237 bn tons set in 2024. The commodity analysts Kpler estimate that China's iron ore imports in December will be around 121,000,000?tons. How long will iron ore imports outperform steel? It depends on the amount of inventory that Chinese steel mills are willing to increase. They have been increasing in recent weeks. SteelHome monitors stockpiles in Chinese ports The week ending December 12 saw a rise of 143.8 million tonnes, compared to 142.4 million in the previous week. The price of corn has risen by 10.5% since the 18-month-low of 130.1 millions tons in early August. It is now approaching the 27-month high of 151.8 from July last year. Iron ore imports are likely to be reduced in the next few months, as inventories have a limited capacity for growth. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of a columnist who writes for.
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Gold to shine again in 2019 despite highest gain since 1979
The gold price has doubled in the past two years, making it the biggest increase since the oil crisis of 1979. This performance could have been interpreted as a forecast for a major correction. Analysts at JP Morgan and Bank of America, as well as Metals Focus, now expect 'bullion to reach $5,000 per troy-ounce by 2026. Spot gold prices hit a record of $4,381 per ounce in October. They had never reached $3,000 prior to March. This was due to demand from central banks and investors, including stablecoin issuer Tether as well as corporate treasurers. BofA's Michael Widmer, a strategist, said that the expectation of future gains or portfolio diversification is driving the buying. This is due to the U.S. budget deficit, the efforts to reduce the U.S. Current Account deficit, and the weak dollar policy. Philip Newman said that Metals Focus's managing director, Philip Newman, believes the support for metals is due to concerns about U.S. Federal Reserve Independence, tariff disputes, and geopolitics, including war in Ukraine, and Russia’s interaction with NATO nations in Europe. CENTRAL BANKS ANCHOR CYCLE Analysts said that central banks diversifying their reserves away from dollar-denominated investments for a fifth consecutive year should provide a solid foundation for gold by 2026, as they will buy at a time when investors are stretched and money is rotating, while prices are falling. Gregory Shearer is the head of JP Morgan's base and precious metals strategies. He said, "The price level has been supported higher than it was when you first started due to central bank demand." "And then, all of a suddenly, we're above $4,000, in a much more cleaner environment, from a position perspective, which allows the cycle to go forward," he explained, referring to signals that investors use to extend positions again after derisking. Analysts at JP Morgan estimate that quarterly central bank demand and investment of 350 metric tonnes is required for prices to remain flat. This buying is expected to be 585 tons on average per quarter by 2026. JP Morgan Shearer stated that the share of gold in total assets managed by investors has risen from 1.5% to 2.8%, compared with levels before 2022. She added that this is not a ceiling, but rather a high level. Morgan Stanley predicts that gold will be $4,500 an ounce by the middle of 2026. JP Morgan anticipates prices to average above $4,600 per ounce in Q2 and $5,000 in Q4. Metals Focus expects gold to reach $5,000 by the end of 2026. Hedging Equity Bets BIS, the global central bank umbrella group, said that gold and stock prices rising in tandem is a phenomenon seen for at least half a decade. This raises questions about potential bubbles in both. Gold analysts say that part of the gold purchases this year were a hedge to protect against sharp corrections on equity markets. This was fuelled by tensions among historic allies due to tariffs, trade issues and the war in Ukraine. Gold is still at risk, since sharp corrections on the equity market often lead to the sale of safe haven assets. Nicky Shiels is the head of metals at MKS PAMP. He predicts that prices will average $4,500 by 2026. Gold, according to Shiels, will be "a multi-year, secular portfolio asset, rather than a hedge". Analysts expect the gold rally to be less dramatic by 2026. Macquarie's economists said that the world had stabilised. They predicted a recovery in global growth and a tapering of central bank easing. Macquarie expects gold prices to average $4,225 by 2026, a little lower than Wednesday's spot price of $4 317. In the meantime, central bank purchases of?gold ETFs and inflows to them are expected to slow next year. The jewellery market, which dropped 23% in third quarter is under pressure, and retail demand for coins and bars can only partially compensate for this. Amy Gower is a commodities strategist with Morgan Stanley. She said that in October, the queues of retail clients?seen by Morgan Stanley in Australia and Europe?may have represented a shift from jewellery to investments. This trend may continue into next year. Newman, at Metals Focus, says that the demand for coins and bars did not show much profit-taking following October. He adds: "If prices start to rise again, you may well be able to buy into this rally." The supply response is muted, with only a 6% increase in recycling. Macquarie says total gold demand will rise by 11% to 5,150 tonnes this year, then fall to 4,815 tons in 2026. CRYPTO MEETS SILVER Fed easing has brought in a new institutional investor for gold, in the form Tether. Tether is the issuer of the largest stablecoin in the world. The third quarter reports from Tether show that it bought 26 tons of gold, which is five times the amount reported by China's central banks. Morgan Stanley's Gower stated that the issue is not one to be overlooked, but added it was unclear whether other firms would adopt a similar approach because of U.S. The GENIUS Act doesn't list gold as a stablecoin reserve asset. India has allowed pension funds to purchase gold and silver ETFs. Metals Focus reported that China allowed insurance funds to purchase gold in February. However, these purchases were limited due to the bullion's rise.
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Silver reaches $65 for the first time, gold increases as US unemployment rates rise
Silver surged to new record highs of $65 per ounce on Wednesday. Gold also advanced as softer than expected U.S. job data indicated a 'cooling labour market. This fueled bets for more interest rate reductions next year. Spot silver rose 3.4% to $65.94 per ounce, after reaching an all-time record of $66.52 in the previous session. The rally was driven by a tight supply, strong demand from industry and increasing speculative interests. Independent analyst Ross Norman said, "Silver is a popular topic of discussion in the options market. I believe it's because the outlook for demand?remains positive." It's an important mineral. It is part of the "green energy" program. The supply is tight. In that sense, speculators swim with the tide." Gold prices also firmed. Spot gold rose 0.3% by 1154 GMT to $4317.65 per ounce, while U.S. futures gold gained?0.4% at $4347.40. The price of silver has increased 128% and the price of gold is up 65% for the year. Ricardo Evangelista, ActivTrades analyst, says that gold is supported by dovish Federal Reserve expectation, economic uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions. The U.S. unemployment rates rose in November to 4.6%, their highest level since September 20,21, despite the 64,000 new jobs created by nonfarm payrolls. The markets are awaiting the release of two important U.S. inflation data this week: Consumer Price Index on Thursday, and Personal Consumption expenditures on Friday. Last week, the Federal Reserve?delivered their third and final quarter point rate cut for the year. Chair Jerome Powell was viewed as being less hawkish that expected. Traders have priced in two 25 basis-point rate cuts for 2026. Gold and other non-yielding investments do well in environments with low interest rates. Geopolitically, U.S. president Donald Trump ordered a "blockade", on Tuesday, of all sanctioned tankers entering or leaving Venezuela. Platinum rose 3.8% to $1,920.71 - its highest level in over '17 years - while palladium increased 1.9% to $1634.29 a new two month high. The entire white metals sector is booming in tandem, and the EU's decision to lift the ban on combustion engines by 2035 is giving this sector a boost," Norman said.
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Copper prices rise on fears of mine shortages
Copper prices increased on Wednesday as persistent fears about possible shortages prompted speculators to buy. The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange gained?1.2%, to $11,721.50 per metric ton at 1110 GMT after losing 0.5% on Tuesday. LME copper prices have risen by 33% in the past year, and in recent weeks they've reached record highs. This is largely due to fears that mine disruptions will lead to a deficit in supply next year. Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING, said that the copper market is still fundamentally tight. The risks are further disruptions of mines, and stronger investment in AI and energy transition sectors. Manthey?added that ING expects the average price of copper in 2026 to be $11,500, with a peak close to $12,000 in second quarter. Investors also digested?Tuesday’s mixed U.S. Labour Market data. It showed a rebound in employment growth, along with elevated unemployment for November. The metals market was also supported by higher oil prices, after U.S. president Donald Trump ordered the blockade on sanctioned oil tanks entering and leaving Venezuela. Higher oil prices will increase the cost of mining and metals. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most-traded copper contract closed the daytime trading session up 0.5% to 92,720 Yuan ($13,162.04) per ton. LME aluminium rose 0.6% to $2.893.50 per ton following confirmation on Tuesday that the Mozal Smelter in Mozambique would be closed, reducing global supplies for next year. Nickel rose 0.9% at $14,395 per ton. Zinc was up by 0.4% at $3,053, while lead was up by 0.7% to $1,956. Tin rose 2.3% to $40,395.
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The EU parliament has approved the phase-out of Russian gas imports
The European Parliament approved Wednesday the plan to phase out Russian imports of gas by the end of 2027. This is the last legal hurdle that needs to be cleared before the ban can become law. The EU has agreed to legislation that will cut ties with Russia, Europe's former largest gas supplier. They had vowed to do this after Moscow's full-scale invasion in Ukraine 2022. The vote was 500 for, 120 against, and 32 abstained. The EU Ministers will still need to formally?approve the ban, which is expected in early?2019. Officials expect that countries will?approve the deal without any changes. The law was designed to be approved with a strengthened majority, which would allow it to overcome the opposition of Hungary and Slovakia who wish to maintain close ties with Moscow. According to the agreement, EU will stop Russian liquefied gas imports before the end of 2026. Pipeline gas will be stopped by the end of September 2027. In October, Russia was responsible for only 12% of EU?gas?imports. This is down from 45% in 2012, before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Hungary, France and Belgium remain among the few countries that still receive gas supplies. The European Commission announced that it would also introduce legislation to phase out Russian crude oil imports in 2026. (Reporting and editing by Charlotte Van Campennhout, Louise Heavens and Kate Abnett)
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Spot drops sharply as German wind output surges
European power prices dropped sharply on the day of Wednesday due to expectations that wind generation in Germany would increase and the warmer weather would reduce demand. LSEG data shows that the French baseload for day-ahead was 39.5 euros (46.28 dollars) per megawatt 'hour at?1050 GMT. This is 54% lower than its close. The German equivalent price dropped 28% to 77.5 Euros/MWh. LSEG data shows that the German wind output will more than double on Thursday to 31.4 Gigawatts from the 12.1 GW forecasted?on?Wednesday. French nuclear capacity remains at 84%. German?power consumption will drop by 400 MW, to 61.7 GW - in the same time period. In France, it is expected to fall by 2 GW, to 58.5 GW. The temperature is expected to increase by 2-2.3 degrees Celsius across both countries. The German baseload?years ahead gained 0.9% to 85.4 euros/MWh. The French position for the same year-ahead period was 0.9% higher, at 50.3 Euros/MWh. The oil, gas and Carbon industries have seen a stronger momentum. The benchmark contract for the European carbon market 2026 increased by 0.8% to 88.07 Euros per metric ton. German transmission system operators released a revised plan for the development of electricity networks up to 2045. This plan could reduce infrastructure costs by 80 billion euro compared to a plan from 2023. The'reporters' cited lower demand estimates, an optimization of measures, including the grouping or deletion of certain 'line projects, as well as assigning a larger role to "grid batteries". European Energy Exchange (EEX), launched on December 12, saw its first trades for the newly launched Wind-Hydro-Solar 'Guarantees Of Origin Futures. The BDEW group of Germany published preliminary data for the year showing that gas consumption increased by 3.6% and power production rose by 0.8%. ($1 = 0.8535 euro) (Reporting and editing by Vera Eckert)
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Silver reaches $65 for the first time, gold increases as US unemployment rates rise
Silver has risen to new record highs of $65 per ounce on Wednesday. Gold also advanced as softer than expected U.S. job data indicated a 'cooling labour market. This led to bets that interest rates will continue to fall next year. Spot silver rose 3.3% to $65.91 per ounce, after reaching an all-time record of $66.52 in the previous session. The rally was driven by tight supplies, strong industrial demand, and increasing speculative interests. Independent analyst Ross Norman said, "Silver is a popular topic of discussion on the options markets. I believe it's because there are some very clear views that demand remains a positive outlook." It's an important mineral. It is a vital part of the green power program. It's tight, in the sense that supply dynamics is tight. Speculators are therefore swimming with the current. Spot gold prices rose 0.4% by 1015 GMT to $4,318.99 per ounce, while U.S. Gold Futures also gained 0.4%, reaching $4,348.10. The price of silver has increased by 128% and the price of gold is up 65% for the year. Ricardo Evangelista, ActivTrades analyst, says that gold continues to be supported due to dovish Federal Reserve expectation, economic uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions. The U.S. unemployment rates rose in November to 4.6%, their highest level since September 20,21, despite the 64,000 new jobs created by nonfarm payrolls. The markets are awaiting important U.S. inflation data this week. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is due on Thursday, and Personal Consumption Spending data is due on Friday. Last week, the Federal Reserve announced its 'third and final quarter point rate cut for the year. Chair Jerome Powell was viewed as being 'less hawkish than anticipated. Traders have priced in two 25 basis-point rate cuts for 2026. Gold and other non-yielding investments do well when interest rates are low. Geopolitically, U.S. president Donald Trump ordered Tuesday a "blockade",?of all sanctioned tankers entering or leaving Venezuela. Platinum was up 4.2%, at $1,927.35, the highest level in over 17 years, and palladium gained 2.2%, to $1,638.96. This is a new two-month high. "The whole white metals sector is surging at the same time, and the EU's decision to lift the ban on combustion engines in 2035 is giving this sector a boost," Norman said.
Mexican President calls on UN to "avoid bloodshed" in Venezuela
The Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum urged the United Nations on Wednesday to?act? in order to prevent bloodshed in Venezuela as tensions between the South American nation and the United States escalate.
Sheinbaum stated during her "morning" press conference that Mexico was against foreign interference and intervention in Venezuela.
"I call upon the United Nations to fulfill their role. It was not present. She said, 'It must take its role to prevent any bloodshed.
The U.S. president Donald Trump ordered on Tuesday a "blockade," of all sanctioned tankers that enter and leave Venezuela. The government of Nicolas Maduro called this a "grotesque" threat.
Trump will speak to U.S. residents from the White House later on Wednesday evening.
U.S. tensions have escalated with Venezuela as Trump has shifted thousands of troops, nearly a dozen ships - including an aircraft carrier – to the area.
Venezuela's government issued a statement in which it said that they rejected Trump's 'grotesque' threat.
(source: Reuters)