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OPEC maintains its global oil demand forecasts for 2025 and 2026

OPEC reiterated its prediction of a relatively strong increase in global oil consumption in 2025. It said that air travel and road travel will support consumption, and trade tariffs are not expected to affect economic growth.

In a report published monthly, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said that the world's oil demand would rise by 1,45 million barrels a day (bpd), in 2025, and by 1,43 million bpd, in 2026. Both forecasts were unchanged since last month.

OPEC believes that oil demand will continue to rise in the coming years. This is contrary to the International Energy Agency, which expects demand to peak this decade due to the switch to cleaner fuels.

OPEC's report said that the new U.S. Administration of Donald Trump has increased uncertainty in the markets and could create supply-demand imbalances which are not reflective market fundamentals. However, it did not change its forecast for 2025 economic growth.

OPEC stated in its report that it remains to be seen to what extent and how potential tariffs will affect the current growth assumptions. They are not expected to have a material impact on the current growth assumptions.

Brent crude traded lower, towards $76 a barrel, after the OPEC release.

The IEA estimates that the demand for oil will grow by 1.05 million bpd in 2025, which is lower than OPEC. However, the gap between OPEC and the IEA on 2025 has shrunk since 2024, when it reached a high due to differences regarding the pace of energy transition.

OPEC+ - which is a grouping of OPEC, Russia and other allies - has been implementing a series cuts in output since the end of 2022, to support markets. The plan currently calls for a gradual increase in oil production starting April. Reporting by Alex Lawler, Editing by Elaine Hardcastle, and Tomaszjanowski.

(source: Reuters)