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Stocks slide, yields up on 'greater for longer' rates view

International stocks dipped on Tuesday, while bond yields and the dollar traded near multimonth highs, as investors checked expectations for more huge U.S. interest rate cuts ahead of U.S. elections.

An early set of quarterly earnings were favorable, with shares of German software application company SAP, U.S. carmaker General Motors, and corporation 3M Co rising after positive results.

However that was inadequate to raise more comprehensive stock exchange. U.S. stock futures pointed to another weaker start after Monday's drop in the benchmark indexes, while the MSCI All-World index fell 0.3%.

We're getting really near to the U.S. election and the information in the U.S. has been strong. So there is a question about how much the Fed can do, stated Peter Schaffrik, global macro strategist at RBC Capital Markets, referring to U.S. monetary policy easing.

A host of information signalling U.S. financial strength has tossed cold water over bets of another larger than usual rate cut, following the Fed's half-point reduction in September.

The chances of the Fed providing a quarter-point cut at its Nov. 7 conference have declined to 89% from near-certainty a week earlier, according to CME's FedWatch tool, while there are essentially no bets on a 50 basis point (bp) cut.

Contributing to the uncertainty is the looming U.S. election, where previous Republican president Donald Trump and Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris remain in a tight battle to win over some of the more competitive states ahead of the Nov. 5 voting day.

Trump's lead in online betting markets has actually helped the dollar's recent increase to a 2-1/2 month high as his proposed tariff and tax policies might mean more powerful inflation and keep U.S. rates of interest higher for longer.

The dollar index was just listed below that peak at 103.89.

Political and geopolitical uncertainty kept safe-haven gold pinned near record levels, up 0.5% at $2,732 an ounce.

Standard 10-year Treasury yields increased almost 2 bps to 4.1997%, extending a sharp move higher and hitting their greatest because late July.

Pepperstone strategist Michael Brown said he did not purchase into the theory that the so-called Trump trade alone was behind the sell-off in Treasuries.

First of all, swing state polls have hardly moved in current weeks, and most of the times still have Trump and Harris neck-and-neck, well within the margin of mistake. Theorizing a. conclusive signal from these is a hard, if not difficult,. ask, he said, including that longer-term yields tend to react. more to shifts in long-lasting expectations for development, instead of. short-term politics.

ASIA TRADE

Investors likewise took some cash off the table in Japan, which. holds an election on Sunday. Stocks, bonds and the yen have all. fallen in tandem as surveys have revealed the possibility of the. ruling coalition losing its bulk.

Japan's Nikkei ended down 1.3% to touch its least expensive. given that early October, while the yen struck 151 per dollar. for the very first time considering that July.

Besides the yen, forex markets steadied after a. session of selling nearly everything versus the dollar.

The pound was just listed below $1.30, with traders wary. as Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is because of speak at. 1325 GMT and has recently suggested the reserve bank can move. more aggressively to cut rates.

Some European Reserve bank authorities are set up to speak. at the International Monetary Fund's yearly conference in. Washington on Tuesday, with the IMF expected to upgrade its. international growth forecasts later in the day.

I believe (policymakers) will wait till after the U.S. election as they might need to calibrate, said Mike Kelly, head. of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments.

Oil rates also steadied and Brent unrefined futures. traded at $74.86 a barrel, up 0.8% on the day. China's. oil-demand growth is expected to remain weak in 2025, the head. of the International Energy Agency stated on Monday.

(source: Reuters)