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Wall Street opens at higher levels after inflation and bank results

Wall Street opens at higher levels after inflation and bank results

U.S. stocks opened higher on Monday, and Treasury yields dipped as investors digested a slight increase in inflation that was expected, along with a number of positive quarterly results for big banks.

After the U.S. consumer price index data showed that U.S. prices rose 0.3% in June, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq opened 0.5% higher, respectively. This was in line with expectations, but it was the biggest gain since January.

The data is likely to be the beginning of an increase in inflation caused by tariffs, which has made the Federal Reserve wary about resuming interest rate reductions. However, it did not give any reason for the Federal Reserve to become more cautious.

U.S. Futures were earlier boosted after Nvidia, a megacap company, announced that it would resume the sale of its H20 chip to China. This sent its shares up by around 4%.

The Stoxx 600 Europe index rose 0.3%, the last increase.

The traders continued to bet that the Federal Reserve will cut rates more than likely in September. They continue to price a 60% probability of a rate reduction after the data.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury Yields fell around 2 basis points, to 4.41%.

Nick Rees is the head of macro-strategy at Monex Europe. He said, "The market reacts to the month-on-month CPI core which was marginally below expectations but slightly."

This sets up a major fight between the Fed, and the President. This gives the Fed enough reason to at least refrain from cutting in June, and to be a bit nervous about cutting in Septembre. But just enough for Trump to believe they should.

Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has said that interest rates in the U.S. should be much lower.

Investors also processed results from JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, which exceeded expectations. However, the market's reaction was mixed, with Wells Fargo dropping 3% after it cut its net interest income guidance for 2025, while Citi was up 3% and JPMorgan was up 1%.

According to LSEG, profits for the S&P 500 are expected to increase 5.8% over the past year.

The forecast has changed dramatically since Trump's trade war began in early April, when it was predicted that growth would be 10.2%.

TRADE WAR

The big picture of trade was also in the spotlight on Tuesday, following the threat by U.S. president Donald Trump over the weekend that he would impose 30% tariffs on the European Union (EU) and Mexico as of August 1, which is above the initial 20% tariffs imposed on the EU in April.

Trump, however, said that he would be open to more negotiations, despite investor predictions of lower final tariff levels.

Japan is reportedly also trying to schedule high level talks with the U.S. on Friday.

Andrzej szczepaniak is a senior Europe economist with Nomura.

"However, it is likely that this will be seen as a tool for bargaining ahead of the 1 August. This is in line with what investors thought about most of Trump's letters to trading partners from last week."

JAPANESE ELSTION

Investors are not only focused on U.S. politics. The upcoming Japanese election for the upper house of parliament is causing a stir in the Japanese government bonds market, which has spilled over to other markets.

According to polls, the ruling coalition could lose its majority of the upper chamber to opponents who support more spending.

The 10-year benchmark yield rose to 1,595%, its highest level since October 2008, as a result of concerns about the impact on Japan’s already fragile finances.

In recent days, higher Japanese yields also pushed long-dated European yields and even U.S. rates higher. However, Germany's 30-year rate, which had hit a two-year-high on Monday, fell 6 basis points to 3.19% on Tuesday.

In Asia, the data also showed that China's economy slowed down less than expected during the second quarter as a result of its resilience to U.S. Tariffs.

The currency markets were relatively quiet on Tuesday. The dollar gained 0.4% against the Japanese yen, but the euro was unchanged at $1.1665.

Spot gold was unchanged at $3,351 an ounce. Spot silver, however, was up 0.3%, to $38.14 an ounce.

Brent futures were $69.18 per barrel, while U.S. Futures were $67.0.

(source: Reuters)