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China's iron ore exports continue to rise as storm clouds gather, Russell

Iron ore is the best performing commodity this year, with a price of over $100 per metric ton. This is despite signs that China's steel industry has been slowing down.

The Singapore Exchange's most traded iron ore contract ended Wednesday at $101.71 per ton, down from $102.74 at its previous close.

The rolling front-month contracts have traded within a narrow range this year. A high of $107.81 per ton was reached on February 12, and a low $93.35 per ton was achieved on July 1.

This stability is due to the fact that China imports 75% of all seaborne volumes. China's imports in the first six months of this year were 592.2 millions tons, down by 3% compared to the same period last year.

The June arrivals reached 105.95 millions tons, which is the highest level since December of last year.

Kpler, a commodity analyst, estimates 101.32 millions tons for China's imports in July.

Iron ore imports from China have been relatively resilient, and this has helped to keep prices around $100 so far in the year.

Market participants are now asking themselves if they can maintain this level in light of the signals coming from other iron ore and metal sectors. China, which is responsible for producing just over half the world's total steel, saw its output fall 9.2% from June 2024 to 83.18 millions tons.

The first half of 2025 saw a 3% decline in production, to 514.83 millions tons.

The outlook for the second part of the year also isn't very rosy, especially if the annual steel production stays around the informal goal of 1 billion tonnes, as it has been for the last five years.

China's output of steel is unlikely to grow in the second half this year compared to the first. It may even decline, particularly if exports fall as importers impose higher duties on Chinese products.

EXPORTS SLIPPERY

Exports of steel product fell 8.5% in June compared to May. However, a good start to the year saw shipments rise 9.2% to 58.15 millions tons.

The second half of the year is likely to see a decline in China's exports, which will put further pressure on this sector.

Iron ore is becoming increasingly unattractive as China struggles to stabilize its economy and manufacturers are faced with uncertainty due to U.S. Tariffs and fierce domestic competition.

SteelHome consultants SteelHome monitor port stockpiles to see if there is any room for iron ore inventory to grow. The week ending July 25 saw a drop of 131.05 millions tons compared to 151.8 millions the previous week.

Kpler data shows that iron ore imports outside China are also weak. They dropped to 136.56 millions tons in July, their lowest level since April.

Kpler predicts that Europe's seaborne imports of iron ore will fall to 6,53 million tonnes in July, marking the third consecutive monthly decline.

Japan is the second largest iron ore buyer in the world. Arrivals are expected to reach a record high of 7,73 million tons for July, a three-month-high.

According to Kpler, South Korea is expected to import 4,71 million tons of soybeans in July. This is the lowest since February 2017.

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These are the views of the columnist, an author for.

(source: Reuters)