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Andy Home: The drop in copper imports from China marks a change in the market's power.

The two-week Iranian ceasefire has helped to dispel some of the macroeconomic doom that had been engulfing the copper markets. But there could be an even greater problem for the copper bulls.

China, which is the largest consumer of metals, has shown that it will not pay the high prices of January when the London Metal Exchange's three-month copper reached a nominal record of $14,527.50 a metric ton.

According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics which compiles trade data from customs statistics, the country's net imported of refined copper fell to 125 350 tons in February. This is the lowest monthly tally recorded since April 2011.

It is natural for buyers to react to high prices in any commodity. However, China's influence over copper pricing has been steadily growing, due to its increasing domestic production capacity.

Import SLumps, Export Surges

Since September, the LME copper prices have been rising and reaching their January peak.

Inbound shipments continued to slow, falling to 454,000 tonnes in the first two month of 2026. This is a drop of 25% compared to the same period in 2025.

Chinese smelters are also increasing exports to take advantage of the strong price. The outbound shipments increased to 172,000 tonnes in January-February, up from 49,000 tons during the same period last year.

China's net copper draw from the rest was only 283,000?tons combined in January and february, the lowest start to any year since 2006.

Exports to Europe and America, in particular, are likely to have come from China’s bonded warehouse stock as traders filled the supply-chain gap left by last year’s?U.S. Tariff trade sucked metal to the United States.

Chinese metal is also flowing directly to LME storage in South Korea, Taiwan and other countries.

According to the LME monthly report, the amount of Chinese-brand Copper on LME warrant increased from 87 475 tons at end of December, to 155 600 tons at end of February.

The big changes in China's trade in copper explain why LME stock levels of 385,275?tons are above their peak in 2018 and have returned to?levels seen last in 2013.

HOLIDAY HIGH

The massive build-up of copper in Chinese domestic stocks is remarkable given the sharp decline in imports.

Shanghai Futures Exchange's (ShFE) stock always increases around the Lunar New Year period, but this year was more than usual.

Early March saw a peak of 433,500 tonnes, up from a holiday record of 268,300 last year. The previous record for the season was 380,000 tonnes in 2020 when holidays coincided in China with COVID-19.

ShFE stocks are down to 301,000 tonnes. There's still plenty of metal left to be used before we can start importing.

Yangshan Copper Premium The usual bounce after the holidays has been seen in, an indicator closely watched of spot demand for imported vehicles.

Shanghai Metal Market, a local data provider, estimates the premium over LME base prices at $65 per tonne, up from $ 20 in January but still a long way off $ 89 this time last year.

The Chinese manufacturing sector has grown for four months in a row, but the impact on the market is being mitigated due to high inventories.

GROWING POWER

The expansion of China's domestic smelting capacity is the key to China's increasing resilience against high prices.

Macquarie Bank estimates that the country's refined copper output will grow by 9% annually in 2025. This translates into an additional million tons of metal.

Chinese smelters consistently outbid Western counterparts to secure raw materials in a competitive copper concentrates market.

Macquarie estimates a modest growth of?1.8% in global mined production from 2025 to 2025. China's copper concentrate imports increased by 7.8% during the same time period.

Imports for recyclable copper, another possible refinery feedstock, rose by?4% on an annual basis.

China's ability, to secure enough raw materials to fuel the country's rising self-sufficiency of refined copper at a price for everyone else. Macquarie estimates that Western smelter output will shrink by 5.1% between 2025 and 2030.

China is better able to resist higher prices by reducing imports and increasing exports.

Copper?bulls would be roaring again if the Iran war de-escalated. Don't expect China will follow the bull script.

Andy Home is a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)