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Minister: Romania is on track to reach deficit target this year
Romania is on track to reach its 6.2% GDP deficit goal for this year, despite the war in Iran. However, it will need to adjust its growth assumptions, if the conflict continues much longer. The country is trying its best to reduce the budget deficit, which was over 9% in 2024 (the highest of all European Union members) to 6.2% by this year and 3% at the end of the decade. This will help it maintain an investment grade rating. It also has a limited fiscal space available to offset the impact of the war on energy prices and debt costs. The broad coalition has capped fuel price markups and approved a scheme of state aid to offset the rise in gasoline prices for road transporters for cargo and passengers. It also plans to do so for farmers. Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan announced in March that the government would temporarily lower excise duty on fuels. Nazare said that if the conflict continues and this takes longer, "the assumptions will be affected. We are talking about higher inflation, less growth...than projected." The markets, the?Commission and investors view us differently. The budget for 2026, approved in March, was based on a 1% economic growth assumption. (Reporting and editing by Emelia Sithole Matarise; Luiza Ilie)
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Coal India sales increase for the first time in 6 months due to gas shortage and summer demand
Coal India said on Wednesday that its sales in March grew 'for the first six months.' This indicates a build-up of coal stock ahead of the peak summer, amid a'shortage in gas -supply due to the U.S./Israeli war against Iran. Coal India said that its offtake or sales to clients rose by 0.7% in March to 69.5 millions tons, despite the 1.5% decline in its provisional production to 84.5million tons. State-run 'company' accounts for more than 80% of country's coal production. It is also the largest coal miner in the world. Coal India’s offtake has fallen for six months in a row after a 7.6% increase?in august, increasing inventory levels at power stations as temperate weather dampens India’s demand for power in 2025. Vasudev Pamanani, director of iEnergy Natural Resources, a Gujarat-based coal trader, explained that the higher?stocks kept import demand low despite summer's peak season?approaching. He said that domestic coal was still more appealing in certain segments. Disruptions in the supply of liquefied gas and reduced gas-based electricity generation will likely increase the reliance on coal to generate power. India, where coal is used for almost?75% its power production, will likely rely more on this polluting fuel in the summer months due to a gas shortage reported in March. Gas accounts for less than 2% of India's total power generation. However, during heatwaves or peak demand periods the country consumes 8-10 gigawatts. India, in the absence of natural gas, has asked its coal plants to operate at full capacity to avoid planned outages. It has also asked industry to generate?their?own power using their captive generating plants to release?supplies to households. India will experience a warmer-than-normal season this year. Heat wave days are expected to surpass the average for the season in May. Sethuraman N R; Varun H K, Editor
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Iron ore companies on positive China data and hopes for stimulus
Iron ore futures prices increased on Wednesday. This was due to the positive factory data and hopes that stimulus measures in China, the top consumer of iron ore, could brighten up demand. After a 0.8% decline on Tuesday, the most traded iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange closed daytime trading up 0.12% to 812 yuan (118.14 dollars) per metric ton. By 0751 GMT, the benchmark May iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was up 0.64% at $106.15 per?ton. China's factory output expanded at its fastest rate in a year in March. This was a relief to an economy that has been struggling with global supply chain tensions and volatile energy markets. China's central?bank pledged to maintain a loose?monetary?policy on Tuesday, igniting hopes for fresh stimulus measures that would boost domestic?consumption as well as counter external shocks. Xin Ge said that a strong demand and a relatively high rate of operation at domestic steelmills also helped to support ore prices. The price potential was limited by the elevated iron ore stock levels at port, which were nearing a record level. Lange Steel's Ge said that the lowering of steel prices kept a lid upon any further price gains. The Shanghai Futures Exchange has been unable to maintain steel benchmarks due to the falling coal prices. Rebar fell 0.32%. Hot-rolled?coil dropped 0.42%. Wire rod retreated by 0.88%. Stainless steel also retreated by 0.32%. As heightened expectations of an end to the 'Iran war' arose, there was a rise in energy supply unrest. Coking coal and?coke, two other ingredients used to make steel, continued their declines, falling by 5.19% and 2.62 %, respectively. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and President Donald Trump said that the end of 'war on Iran' could be near. Washington indicated the possibility of both direct talks with the leadership of Tehran and the winding down the conflict without a deal.
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Sources say that India has no immediate plans to restart offshore mining auctions
Two'sources' familiar with the issue have said that India will not 'go ahead with auctioning off deep-sea mine rights due to a lack in technological preparedness, and a low response from potential bidders. India announced its first offshore mineral block auction in November 2024. It included three lime mud, three construction sands, and seven polymetallic blocks. The blocks contained minerals such as cobalt and copper that are essential for solar panels and electric vehicles. In December of last year, the government cancelled the auction because there was a lack of interest. Reports said that the first batch of offshore minerals were worth "more than 1.5 trillion rupees". One source, who declined to be named due to the nature of the discussions being confidential, said: "Our impression is that it's not economically feasible for the companies." The sources also said that Indian companies lack the technology to carry out the process, which requires specialist mining. Sources added that domestic mining companies are unwilling to make the necessary investments for these activities. One source said that Indian authorities may explore the option of auctioning off different blocks to test the interest of miners. The Federal Mines Ministry did not reply to an email seeking a comment. New Delhi has also had a limited success in its onshore auction of critical minerals, with only 60% of the 76 block successfully awarded to bidders. (Reporting and editing by Kevin Buckland; Neha Arora)
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Topps Tiles will close 23 UK stores due to low demand
Topps Tiles, a British tile retailer, announced on Wednesday it would close 23 underperforming stores as part of cost-savings measures. The goal is to boost medium-term profits amid a weakening demand. Topps Tiles, for example, has seen their sales volume and revenue grow as a result of a slowdown in home improvement and DIY. The UK's largest tiling retailer reported a 0.1% drop in revenue for the first half of this year, to?142.7million pounds ($189.31million). The company's?initiatives will?have an impact on revenue but it is focusing on measures that support profitability. Alex Jensen, Chief Executive Officer of the company, said that the team was implementing a?programme of targeted self-help initiatives geared towards the second half of the year. The group, which has approximately 300 stores in the UK, said that its tile retailer CTD is on track to return to profitability?in this current financial year.
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Poland's Orlen signss preliminary agreement on the acquisition of GA Polyolefins
Orlen, the Polish state-owned refiner, announced on Wednesday that it had signed a preliminary agreement with Grupa Azoty (the Polish state-controlled chemical group) under which it would acquire 'all remaining shares in Grupa azoty polyolefins. The transaction involves the purchase of GAP shares and the provision of financing by Orlen to complete GAP’s restructuring. It has a value of $1.35 billion ($364.23 millions). The transaction was in line with expectations. Orlen had been viewed as the "natural candidate" to take over the Polyolefins Project and stabilize it. Erste Group analyst Cezary Bernatek wrote in a client note. He added, "We'd expect an initial neutral?market response...Overall the deal should be viewed as a risk-clean-up rather than a new growth catalyst." Orlen holds 17.3% of GAP currently, but this will increase to 100% after the completion of the deal. Marcin Celejewski, CEO of Grupa Azoty said that the resolution of the project "Polimery Police", is a turning-point for the company and solves the "first of the biggest investment and financial issues". He added that "this transaction is a catalyst for implementing our new strategy - focusing on the fertilizer foundation, and maximising synergies in the group." Orlen stated in a statement that the completion of the deal is scheduled for "the third quarter". In connection with the transaction, Orlen will act as a guarantor for the settlement of claims between the GAP, Hyundai Engineering and each other in relation to the implementation of the flagship project.
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Mike Dolan: "Cash did well in March, whether it was dry powder or cash"
Who needs to "search for another safe place" if Warren Buffett doesn't mind Berkshire Hathaway piling up more cash? Berkshire reported ending 2025 as having a massive $373 billion in cash. However, this cash pile appears to be largely intact and legendary chairman of the conglomerate claims that they have moved more money into the cash?pile during the past week. Buffett said on CNBC that they had bought T-bills worth $17 billion this week. He added that, beyond the "one tiny purchase," there was not much else to buy and their cash position was "somewhere near $350 billion." He dismissed the corrections with his characteristic bluntness, saying: "This is nothing." Buffett has made it clear that Berkshire does not prefer to own cash-equivalents over good businesses. This means that the cash is an opportunistic investment, and not a defensive one. Buffett is exceptional in many respects, but Berkshire’s enormous cash position speaks to a market dilemma - finding a safe haven amid the energy shock brought on by the Iran War. Even though the Federal Reserve has said that it will not be reducing interest rates further, it is best to keep your cash on hand. Gold has been a disappointment since the start of the war. It had one of its worst monthly performances since 2008, despite its stellar gains in the prior year. This has tarnished its reputation as a safe-haven asset that can benefit from wider turbulence. Treasury bonds have been a poor portfolio insulator for the past few years. They failed to do this at any time during Donald Trump's turbulent second term. Carlyle Research noted that during the three major stock market declines caused by geopolitical shocks in the last year - the Greenland dispute in January, and the Iran War last month – Treasury prices fell "in tandem" with stocks. Jason Thomas, Carlyle's strategist, wrote: "It is no longer reasonable to believe that Treasury bonds would provide the offset deviations from stock prices that investors had come to expect over the previous decade." Since 2022, the correlation between monthly returns on stocks and bonds is up from -25%. LEAKY INSULATED This might change if a recession or deep rate cuts were included, but neither are on the radar despite the twin blows to growth and inflation. In March, manufacturing surveys showed that the AI boom and the global trade of AI-related hardware continued to grow despite the Middle East conflict. The S&P 500's earnings growth for the full year has increased to 17% in the last month, despite a decline of more than 10% in 12-month price-earnings forward valuations. Perhaps it is better to invest in commodities and other related stocks. The trade tensions and political tensions of the last year have caused global supply chains to be squeezed and scarce resources, such as raw materials and inputs for armaments and rockets, become even more scarce. The CRB core commodities index rose almost 20% in the last month, despite the rise in oil and gas prices. Manish Kabra is a strategist at Societe Generale. He believes that these shocks, which are a recurring feature of the Trump presidency, are an excuse for building positions in the physical economies - grid, power, infrastructure, automation, and strategic resources. He told clients that investors would be "best positioned" by investing in industrials, utilities and materials. The impact of oil shocks is usually determined by two factors: the duration and the Fed's reaction. Spare a thought, however, for the humble dollar. It has recovered its composure after a non-show in last year's tariff ruckus. Buffett is happy to?load up on T-bills with interest rates around 3.6%. Non-U.S. Investors are also able to enjoy higher returns: the dollar index has risen by nearly 3% against major currencies. Cash is not king but it was able to perform a feat last month that neither gold nor bonds could. Cash would have at least taken the edge off of the 6-8% shaky S&P 500. While everyone is still debating what historical market reference points they will use in this war, March's market movements have already been included as an example of how to proceed. The opinions expressed are those of Mike Dolan a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Australian shares reach 3-week highs, and gold stocks rise on hopes of a resolution to the Iran conflict
Australian shares closed at a three-week-high on Wednesday, with gains led by gold miners. Prices of bullion were buoyed by optimism about a possible deescalation in conflict over Iran. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 ended the day 2.2% higher at 8,671.80, its highest level since March 11, The ASX 200 index had fallen 7.8% in march, its steepest monthly drop since June 2022. After reports that?saidU.S. Donald Trump said he was willing to stop the military campaign against Iran, even if the 'Strait of Hormuz' was largely closed. Gold prices rose, which gave Australian gold miners an extra push. The yellow metal?reached its highest level since the 20th of March earlier in that session. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that gold stocks were 'rallying' on the prospect of further gains in the price of the precious metal. If there is a de-escalation of the conflict or a resolution, this could bring down the oil price and USD, which would be good for gold. After losing 23.9% of its value in March, the local gold sub index jumped 7.3% to its highest level for nearly three weeks. The top players, Northern Star Resources (up 8.6%) and Evolution Mining (up?8.2%), both added to their respective totals. The mining sub-index grew by as much as 5.2 percent, the most in nearly a year. Rio Tinto, BHP and other sector heavyweights have both increased by 3.5% and 4.3% respectively. Both miners are at their highest level since early March. The big four banks all rose between 1.1% to 2.5%, a gain of 1.8%. This is the best intraday performance since February 12. Oil prices recovered overnight losses and gained some ground early in the morning, causing energy stocks to lose as much as 2.5%. Over the Tasman sea, the New Zealand benchmark S&P/NZX50 index dropped 0.7% to 12,825.87.
Imports of Brazilian fuel oil from Southeast Asia are robust, easing supply concerns fueled by war.
Shipping data reveals that Brazilian fuel oil imports to Southeast Asia jumped by a whopping 80% in March. This eases concerns about a tight marine 'fuel supply in this month, after the U.S. and Israel 'war with Iran crimped shipments.
Data from Kpler & Vortexa shows that Southeast Asia's fuel imports from Brazil increased by more than two-fold in February compared with the previous month. Most of these fuels are headed to Singapore and Malaysia, which is the top ship refuelling centre for Southeast Asia.
Kpler data shows that the volume has reached an all-time record of about 1 million metric tonnes (about 205,000 barges per day). Vortexa says it is the highest for a whole year, at around 800,000 tones.
Analysts and traders say that the widening price gap between East and west is driving South American fuel oil to Asia.
LSEG data show that the East-West VLSFO Swap - the price differential for Asia versus the supply from the United States or Europe - widened on March 31 to a new record of over $160 a tonne, which is more than 170% higher than the end-of-February.
"Favourable East-West VLSFO Arbitrage economics along with strong refinery run in the 'Atlantic Basin could continue to push fuel oil towards Asia", said Xavier Tang senior market analyst at Vortexa.
ROBUST BRAZILIAN SUPPLY CAPS PREMIUMS
After the U.S. - Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz was closed to traffic. This is a crucial route that handles around 5% of global energy shipments every day.
The cost of refuelling all marine fuels, including VLSFO (high-sulfur fuel oil), HSFO (high-sulfur fuel oil) and marine gasoil has increased.
Singapore, Asia's main oil trading hub, has seen spot fuel oil premiums and marine fuels capped by the Brazilian fuel oil inflow, which is mainly very low-sulphur fuel used for bunkering.
Spot Premiums for VLSFO
Vortexa's Tang stated that the region's VLSFO exports in March were relatively flat compared to last month despite a heavy influx of Brazilian products.
Tang stated that "supplies from Kuwait's al-Zour refining plant have dropped significantly, as the 'Strait of Hormuz' remains largely closed, and Dangote’s RFCC unit (residue liquid catalytic cracked) is operating at full capacity, reducing straight-run low-sulphur inflows to 'Singapore' in March."
The spot premiums in Singapore for 'bunker fuel' have fallen to pre-war levels due to increased supply from Brazil, Russia and other countries. However, traders say the outlook remains tight because of a lack of heavy crude oil used to produce HSFO as well as gasoil blending stock that is used to make VLSFO. (Reporting and editing by Florence Tan, Kevin Buckland and Jeslyn Lerh)
(source: Reuters)