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Oil prices drop after Trump announces talks with Iran.
The market was cautious on Tuesday about the progress of the U.S. and Iran?peace negotiations. U.S. president Donald Trump said on Monday that talks with Iran are ongoing. Earlier, the?Tasnim News Agency reported that Tehran had suspended indirect discussions with Washington. Brent crude futures fell 75 cents or 0.79% to $94.23 per barrel at 0434 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped 85 cents or 0.92% to $91.31 per barrel. Both benchmarks gained more than 5% the previous session after a loss of over 16% in may on the hope of a peace deal. "While the markets hoped to move beyond uncertainty amid the prospects of a possible deal, nothing seems to have changed in oil?as this morning", said Priyanka Sackdeva, senior analyst at Phillip Nova. In an interview on CNBC, Trump stated that he didn't mind if talks ended. He then posted on social media that talks were still ongoing with Iran and told ABC News he expected a deal in the "next week" to extend the ceasefire, and reopen Strait of Hormuz. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that the market was focusing on the substance and tone of both parties' statements (especially Iran's threats about the Strait of Hormuz) and the actual tanker movements in the waterway. Waterer said that the status of U.S. Iran negotiations will determine if the current risk premium remains embedded in oil price or begins to unravel. Lebanon announced on Monday a partial ceasefire between Hezbollah, Israel and the Palestinian Authority. This would be a de-escalation in a conflict which has sparked a wider war against Iran. Since the start of the Gulf War, Iran has effectively stopped all non-Iranian shipping in and out of the Gulf. This has slowed down about a fifth global oil and gas flows. Prices have risen by more than 50%. U.S. crude oil exports reached a record of 5.6 million barrels each day in May, as the Middle East Crisis prompted refiners from Asia and Europe to increase their demand for U.S. oil. A preliminary poll released Monday shows that U.S. crude stocks are expected to be down by 3.6 million barrels for the week ending May 29. This is a continuation of the previous week's decline. Distillates and gasoline are also likely to be lower. Shipping executives meeting in Athens, Greece on Monday agreed that any deal reached between the U.S.A. and Iran must include clear rules to allow vessels to resume their normal operations through the Strait of Hormuz. (Reporting from Pooja Menon and Siyi Lu in Singapore, and editing by Sonali Paul & Jamie Freed.)
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Russell: Hormuz's losses can't be offset by the surge in US crude imports to Asia.
The record volume of U.S. Crude Oil is now arriving in Asia. However, it's not enough to compensate for the cargo losses caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Asia's imports from the U.S. of crude oil were 63.56 millions barrels, which was the highest for a single month. However, at 2,05 million barrels per a day (bpd), they were only slightly behind the 2.07 million bpd in June 20223. Kpler has tracked arrivals of 2,32 million bpd for June and 3,07 million bpd for July. The average import of U.S. Crude by Asia in the three-month period ending February was 1.37 million barrels per day. Iran was attacked by the United States, Israel and other countries on February 28, and Tehran responded with a closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This is where about 20% of crude oil and refined petroleum products were transported before the start of the conflict. Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, two Middle Eastern oil exporters that have been able to divert some of their oil exports outside the Strait to other ports, still lack 10 million barrels per day as the Iran conflict continues. As some vessels received Iranian approval for transit, 1.2 million barrels per day of crude oil reached Asia through the Strait of Hormuz in May. This is down from an average of 13.54 millions bpd during the three-month period ended in February. The volume of additional cargoes that Asia received from the United States and other exporters from the Americas, Africa, and Europe is dwarfed by the amount of lost cargoes. Kpler data shows that Asia's seaborne arrivals of crude oil in May increased from 18.7 million barrels per day in April. This was the lowest level in over 10 years. Even though May's arrivals were higher, they still fell 22% below the average of 24,82 million bpd over the three-month period ending in February. This loss of over 5 million bpd will lead to difficult choices for Asia's refining companies. They have been able to keep their plants running by using up strategic and commercial stockpiles as well as reducing the processing rate. There are questions about how long the world will be able to continue depleting its crude oil inventories before refiners have to drastically reduce their throughput. When will the CRUNCH arrive? Most analysts and oil executives agree that the clock is getting louder. Some regions will be able to produce and refine oil at normal rates while others may struggle to get enough. If the Strait Of Hormuz doesn't reopen in the next few weeks and does not remain open in a sustainable manner, then it is likely that the price of refined fuels will increase to reduce demand. Asia, where 80% of fuel is imported through the Strait of Hormuz was the worst affected. It's most likely that the less developed, fuel-importing nations such as Bangladesh and Pakistan will feel the effects the quickest. In the United States, there will also be more questions about the rapid depletion in inventories despite record crude and products exports. Both major U.S. political parties tend to concentrate on domestic issues. It's not a surprise to see that they are increasingly opposed to oil and fuel imports, in the mistaken belief that it will lower retail prices here at home. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Gold prices rise on lower Treasury yields amid Mideast unrest
Gold prices edged up a bit on Tuesday due to lower Treasury yields, a partial ceasefire between Hezbollah, and Israel. Investors waited for more details about the U.S. Iran peace talks, despite conflicting reports. By 0420 GMT, spot gold had risen 0.5% to $4,507.56 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery rose 0.7% to $4,539. Gold prices are rising due to the ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Israel, said GoldSilver Central's Managing Director Brian Lan. He added that lower Treasury yields also helped the metal. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Note ticked down, reducing the cost of non-yielding gold. Lebanon announced a partial ceasefire on Monday between Hezbollah, Israel and other parties. This would be a limited deescalation in a conflict that has claimed thousands of lives and sparked the wider war with Iran. Iranian state media had earlier reported that Tehran would stop indirect negotiations with the U.S., and could end the ceasefire. Meanwhile, U.S. president Donald Trump stated that talks with Iran are ongoing "at an accelerated pace." Investors await the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Employment Reports, due in the next few days, to gauge the resilience of the labour market in light of the mounting concerns about inflation caused by the Middle East conflict. The?remarks of?Federal Reserve officials, such as Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, and Fed Governor Michael Barr are also a focus to gauge future monetary policy 'path. "On the plus side, it seems that the key barrier to overcome here is right around $4900. "If (gold) confidently reestablishes its foothold at the $5,000 mark, we'll know gold is once again engaging with its longer-term dynamics," said Ilya SPivak, Tastylive's head of global macro. (Reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich and Subhranshu Sahu) (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich and Subhranshu Sahu in Bengaluru.
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MORNING BID EUROPE - Nvidia's chief to Asia: "We're still constrained by supply"
Gregor Stuart Hunter gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Jensen Huang, Nvidia's CEO, says that the company is able to meet the demand for "very robust growth" due to the AI boom. It still needs more. He told a group of computer hardware and chipmakers at a conference in Taipei that supply issues remained a problem, just a day after Advanced Micro Devices unveiled its new chip, which will compete against Intel and Advanced Micro Devices. Nvidia's chips are used in data centres around the world, and as such they are often regarded as a barometer of the AI market. In another day, Huang’s comments may have been good news for Asian chipmakers who supply the company. But markets in Asia remained skittish as fears?over the U.S. - Iran ceasefire remaining intact weighed heavily on equities. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 0.1%, and S&P 500 futures dropped by 0.4%. Brent crude fell 0.7% at $94.30, retracing gains made after Iran threatened to end talks with the United States. The Lebanon government announced earlier this week a partial ceasefire, which could de-escalate the conflict. However, the Israeli military reported intercepting two projectiles fired by Lebanon on Tuesday. Korean shares fell as much as 3.3%, after initially rising 1.7%, to set a new intraday high. Shares in Hong Kong, China and the rest of Asia were able to stabilize the regional benchmark. Early European trades saw pan-regional futures?up 0.4%. German DAX Futures rose 0.3% and FTSE Futures nudge 0.1% higher. A?U.S. A?U.S. jury found prominent investor Andrew Left guilty on Monday of securities fraud, according to the Justice Department. This is a major blow for a group of short sellers that has been provoking public companies both in the U.S. Left will be sentenced to prison on August 31. Tuesday's key developments: Earnings of the company Palo ?Alto Networks, Dollar General Economic Events France Budget Balance for April UK BOE Consumer Credit, Mortgage Lending and Money Supply for April Debt auctions: France: 3-month government debt, 7-month government debt and 1-year Government Debt Germany: 4-month government debt, 10-month government debt and 2-year Government Debt UK: 11-year government debt
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Copper reaches a two-week high amid uncertainty over tariffs and Iran risks
The market rose more than two weeks on Tuesday, as the?unresolved U.S. Tariff uncertainty and the tightening of supply outside the United States supported it. Middle East peace talks also remained a focus. As of 0258 GMT the benchmark?copper?three-month contract on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.32% to $13,876.50 per metric ton, its highest level since May 15. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract rose 1.32%, to 106,050 Yuan ($15.682.77) per ton. The White House amended tariffs on certain copper, aluminum, and iron imports, and lowered duties on some agricultural and industrial equipment. However, the order did nothing to resolve the larger copper tariff question that has caused regional dislocations in the market. Analysts at ING Economics said that "Tariff uncertainties is likely to support the market sentiment." COMEX copper premiums over LME have widened. This has continued to encourage shipment into U.S. storage facilities. LME cash copper is now cheaper than three-month LME. Also, the gap between supply and demand has narrowed in recent months. Middle East remains in the spotlight after Lebanon announced a ceasefire between Hezbollah & Israel. However, fighting continues in southern Lebanon. The U.S.-Iran conflict has not been resolved by the limited de-escalation. According to?Iranian State Media, Tehran has halted indirect peace talks with Washington. A senior Iranian commander also threatened to disrupt the 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Metals are more exposed to energy risk due to the conflict, but aluminum is more directly affected as the Gulf produces around 9% global output. LME aluminium increased by 0.91%, to $3,750, after reaching a four-year high of $3,775. Shanghai Aluminium rose by 0.88%, to 24,530 Yuan. Tin has also risen. London tin jumped 1.15% and Shanghai tin soared?3.45%. Zinc, nickel, and lead all saw a slight increase on the 'LME. On the SHFE, nickel rose 0.54%, while lead fell 0.18%. ($1 = 6.7622 Chinese Yuan Renminbi) Reporting by Dylan Duan, Lewis Jackson and Ronojojo Mazumdar.
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Asia stocks fall as Middle East fears offset AI optimism
Asian stocks fell in Tuesday's choppy trading, as concerns about the?durability of a Middle East truce? tempered AI optimism. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan, which fluctuated between gains or losses when trading began, fell by 0.6%. Korean shares were the biggest regional losers, falling as much as 3,3% after a higher opening. S&P 500 futures fell 0.5% while Nikkei225 in Japan dropped 1.9%. "This is not a revaluation of the AI trade, it's a profit-taking following a blistering-fast run," said Fabien YIP, a Sydney-based market analyst. She said that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks have been a series of false starts, with today's failure to make progress being no exception. The market is accustomed to the constant back and forth. Brent crude fell 0.6% to $94.45 per barrel on Monday after Lebanon announced that Hezbollah had agreed to a partial ceasefire with Israel. This retracted some of the gains made Monday after reports that Tehran had stopped indirect negotiations with America. The markets remain cautious regarding progress in U.S. and Iran peace talks to end the three-month-long war, due to the fragility the April ceasefire. The?S&P500 closed overnight 0.3% higher, after ISM's Manufacturing PMI rose from 52.7 in May to 54.0, exceeding expectations to reach its highest level in four years. This was likely due to businesses front-loading their orders in response to rising prices and shortages caused by the war with Iran. David Rosenberg said in a client note that "the equity market is in a boom mode" despite rising energy prices and real interest rates. The S&P 500 has now been up for nine consecutive weeks, a streak that we last saw in late 2023. KOSPI CAPER AI suppliers in Asia gained after Anthropic, a?AI developer, said that it had filed a confidential application for an initial public offering (IPO) in the United States. This could result in a valuation of trillions of dollars. Alphabet's shares fell 0.7% after-hours after the tech giant announced that it was looking to raise $80 billion in equity offerings. This includes an investment by Berkshire Hathaway. South Korean equities exhibited a high degree of volatility, with the benchmark KOSPI fluctuating sharply between gains and losses as key companies like Samsung Electronics or SK Hynix flipped back and forth. South Korea's consumer prices data was also included in the mix for markets. Inflation accelerated to a two-year high in May, and this boosted expectations of a rate increase next month. Last week, Bank of Korea indicated that it would soon adopt a more restrictive stance in order to control inflation and stabilize the won. The U.S. dollar index, which measures greenback strength against a basket of six different currencies, has held steady at 99.21. It is still firmly within the range that it has been in for the last three weeks. The yield of the 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States was 4.447%, down 2.8 basis point. In choppy trading, gold was up by 0.1% to $4,487.53. Cryptocurrencies have fallen to their lowest levels in two months. Bitcoin fell 1.7% to $70,174.13 while ether dropped 1.9% to 1,964.90. (Reporting and editing by Gregor Stuart Hunter)
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Gold prices steady amid uncertainty surrounding US-Iran Peace Negotiations
Investors waited for more details about the U.S. Iran talks and parsed out a partial ceasefire between?Hezbollah & Israel. As of 0217 GMT, spot gold remained unchanged at $4,481.53 an ounce. U.S. gold for August delivery rose 0.1% to $4,512.20. "At the beginning of this week there were a lot of expectations that we might get a 60 day extension of the ceasefire at the weekend. Ilya Spirak, global macro head at Tastylive, said that both sides seem to have dug in their heels and "we are still without a deal". Lebanon announced on Monday a partial ceasefire in the conflict between Hezbollah, Israel and Hamas. This would be a 'limited de-escalation' of a conflic? that has claimed thousands of lives and fueled the war against Iran. Iranian state media had earlier reported that Tehran would halt indirect negotiations with the U.S., and could end the ceasefire citing the conflict in Lebanon. Donald Trump of the United States said, on the other hand, that negotiations with Iran are "ongoing at a rapid rate." Investors will be waiting for the U.S. Nonfarm Payroll and Employment Reports, due in the next few days, to assess the resilience of the labour market in light of the mounting concern about inflation caused by the Middle East conflict. The Federal Reserve's policymakers will also be focusing on the remarks of Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, and?Fed governor Michael Barr to gauge future monetary policy?path. "On the upside the main barrier here appears to be around $4,900. Spivak stated that if (gold) confidently reestablishes its foothold at the $5,000 mark then we will?know gold is once more?engaging with it's longer-term dynamics. (Reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich and Subhranshu Sahu) Spot silver increased 0.5% per ounce to $75.21, platinum rose 0.5% at $1,932.50 while palladium dropped 0.4% at $1,356.90. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich and Subhranshu Sahu in Bengaluru.
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Authorities report four deaths as a result of a major Russian attack on Ukraine
Authorities said that Russian attacks in?Ukraine early on Tuesday killed four people in Dnipro and damaged two apartment blocks in the capital,?Kyiv?. This was after weeks of warnings from Moscow about a major attack. Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko confirmed that a suspected missile attack on a 24-storey building caused a collapse. People were likely trapped beneath the rubble. The mayor reported that a fire broke out in the Podil area on the property of a?non-residential building and that a nine-storey residential apartment was on fire as debris had apparently hit the roof. In the Obolon district, cars have been set ablaze after falling missile debris hit them. Two other fires are burning in the open, one of which is near a kindergarten," Klitschko stated on Telegram. After air raid warnings, thousands of Kyiv residents sought refuge in metro stations and other shelters. Early on Tuesday, air raid warnings were issued for most of the country. Oleksandr hanzha, the regional governor, said that a second attack in Dnipro was responsible for four deaths and 16 injuries. All of the injured were hospitalized and reported to be in a moderate condition. The two-story building that was damaged was partially destroyed. On Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy re-iterated warnings about a possible massive Russian attack and asked residents to pay particular attention to air raid alarms. "Intelligence warnings regarding Russian strikes remain in effect. Zelenskiy stated in his evening video address that a massive strike was possible and they had prepared one. Our defenders will be ready to defend the country 24/7, using the current supplies available. Last week, Russia warned it would launch "systematic attacks" against targets in Kyiv that were linked to the Ukrainian military and decision-making centers. It also urged foreigners not to stay. The statement said that the action was taken in response to a drone strike last month in the Russian-controlled Luhansk Region of Ukraine, which resulted in 21 deaths. Ukraine has denied responsibility for the attack. Oleh Syniehubov, the Governor of Kharkiv in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv Region, said on Telegram that six people, including a girl aged 11 years, were injured overnight by?Russian artillery. The reports could not be independently verified. Russia has attacked Ukraine's infrastructure and power supplies, while Ukraine has intensified its attacks on Russian oil facilities?this past year. This has sometimes resulted in casualties. Both sides deny that they are targeting civilians. Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the war in Ukraine continues. The conflict has not been resolved, as the U.S. government of Donald Trump is focused on the Middle East. Reporting, writing by Jekaterina Glubkova, Lincoln Feast and Shri Navaratnam; editing by Himani Sarkar & Shri Navaratnam
FT reports that the US is in talks with Europe to increase nuclear weapon deployments.
The Financial Times reported on Tuesday that the U.S. was 'discussing' whether or not to deploy nuclear weapons into?additional European NATO states.
The FT reported that U.S. officials had indicated an openness to additional nuclear-capable deployments outside of the six countries currently hosting such bombers. Three people who were briefed about the discussions confirmed this.
The newspaper said that the'move' would require more countries to host so called U.S. Dual-Capable?Aircraft (DCA), capable of delivering nuclear strikes. However, it cautioned that an agreement for expanding U.S. Nuclear Hosting was not imminent.
The report stated that countries on NATO's eastern front, including Poland and some Baltic states, were interested in hosting DCA bases. Discussions are ongoing through NATO channels.
Could not verify the report immediately. Requests for comment from the White House, Department?Defense or NATO were not immediately responded to.
Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby previously stated that the U.S. will 'continue to use nuclear weapons to defend NATO members even though European allies take the lead in conventional forces.
U.S. president Donald Trump and his aides have criticized?European allies? for not spending enough on their military?and relying solely on the U.S. to provide conventional defense. Gursimran K. in Bengaluru, Jacqueline Wong & Muralikumar Anantharaman edited the article.
(source: Reuters)