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IEA predicts a global oil surplus in 2025, as demand falls.

IEA predicts a global oil surplus in 2025, as demand falls.

The International Energy Agency reported in its monthly report on the oil market that global oil supply may exceed demand this year by 600,000 barrels a day. This follows a downward revision of its demand growth forecast for 2025.

The Paris-based agency stated that the surplus could increase by 400,000 bpd if OPEC+ continues to unwind its output cuts and fails in reining in overproduction against quotas.

Calculations based on IEA figures show that the IEA’s February oil report suggested a slightly smaller surplus of about 500,000 bpd.

The IEA has revised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2025 by 70,000 bpd. This growth is largely driven by Asia, and specifically China's petrochemical sector.

After the publication of the report, oil prices fell. Brent oil futures were trading at $70.85 as of 0926 GMT compared to $71.01 when the report was released.

The data shows the challenge that OPEC+ producers face in balancing this year's oil market, given the growing trade tensions around the world and the robust growth of supply.

The IEA stated that "the macroeconomic conditions which underpin our oil consumption projections deteriorated in the last month as trade tensions increased between the U.S.A. and other countries." This led the IEA to lower its estimates of demand growth for the fourth quarter 2024 and first quarter this year.

The IEA predicts that global oil supply will double in 2025 compared to 2024, reaching 1.5 million bpd if OPEC+ continues to cut production after the planned unwinding of April.

The report said that OPEC's April oil cut from Saudi Arabia and Algeria may only have added around 40,000 bpd to the market, as continued overproduction by other member countries leaves no room for further opening of taps.

The global oil supply has already increased, even though the actual increase in supply from the gradual unwinding OPEC+ production cutbacks in April is likely to be less than the nominal increase of 138,000 bpd.

(source: Reuters)