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Trump's oil-tariffs boost European and Asian refiners

Analysts and market participants said that Donald Trump's tariffs on Canadian oil and Mexican oil will give European and Asian refineries an advantage over their U.S. competitors.

White House officials confirmed that Trump ordered tariffs of 25% on Canadian and Mexican imports, and 10% on Chinese goods starting Tuesday in response to a national crisis over fentanyl. They said that energy products imported from Canada would be subject to a duty of only 10%, while Mexican energy imports would be subject to a full 25%.

Sources in the industry said that the tariffs on two of the biggest sources of U.S. imported crude will increase costs for the heavier crude grades U.S. refining plants need to produce at optimum levels. This could reduce their profitability, and force them to cut production.

This gives refiners on other markets the opportunity to compensate for this difference. The U.S. currently exports diesel but imports gasoline.

David Wech, chief economist at consultancy Vortexa, said that fewer U.S. exports of diesel would help to support European margins. However, there may be more opportunities for exports in the gasoline market which is under pressure.

"Overall, a positive outcome for European refiners but not likely for European consumers," said he.

An executive from a brokerage firm said that "European margins could improve" because the U.S. Northeast would have to import additional gasoline. "I believe European and Asian refiners will be the biggest winners."

Matias Teogni, the founder of Next Barrel, an analytics firm, says that tariffs will also force crude sellers to lower their prices in order to attract buyers. He said that Asian refiners would be able to absorb the discounted Mexican and Canadian crude. This could boost their profit margins.

The Asian refiners have the advantage of running heavy crudes, and they are in the process of increasing their production rates. Randy Hurburun is the head of refining for Energy Aspects.

Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMX), which was launched in Canada last May, can now transport an additional 590,000 barrels of oil per day along the Canadian Pacific Coast.

Trading sources stated that higher TMX shipments from China could replace imports from Venezuela or Saudi Arabia.

Wech, Vortexa, said that refiners in Asia-Pacific could also take advantage of fuel arbitrage opportunities with the U.S. West Coast. The West Coast might be affected by higher feedstock prices incurred when sourcing crudes from afar.

Midwest refiners are expected to continue buying Canadian crude, despite the tariff. They could then pass on the cost to their customers.

Stewart Glickman is an equity research analyst with CFRA Research.

US FEEDSTOCK Conundrum

Energy Information Administration (EIA), a government agency, reported that crude oil from Canada and Mexico will account for 28% of the crude consumed by U.S. refineries in 2023. Midwest refineries are particularly reliant on Canadian barrels.

Analysts said that the different qualities of Canadian and Mexican crude oil will limit U.S. refiners ability to use more WTI light crude instead of Canadian or Mexican oil.

Neil Crosby, analyst at Sparta Commodities, said that the use of WTI by domestic refiners was likely limited. They really needed residual fuels.

Energy Aspects Hurburun said that although some U.S. refining plants have upgraded to process more lighter crudes, it would result in a underloading of secondary unit, which would impact both efficiency and economics.

John England, Deloitte’s global leader in oil, gas, and chemicals sector, said that friction can lead to higher costs.

According to the EIA report, U.S. crude imports from Canada reached their highest level ever in the week ending Jan. 3. This could be a sign that refiners are stocking up as tariffs are looming. Imports are down slightly, with the last import being 3.72 million barrels per day in the week ending Jan. 24. However, they remain high for the year.

While U.S. refining companies have seen their earnings fall from record levels of 2022, they are still a long way off. The oil major Chevron reported earnings that were below Wall Street expectations in the fourth quarter, after its refining division suffered a first-time loss since 2020 due to weak margins.

Tariffs, and the subsequent price hikes, could also impact on U.S. refiners’ ability to make a profit.

Crosby said that the mechanics of imposing tariffs on Mexico or Canada would be very difficult for the competitiveness of U.S. systems. Reporting by Robert Harvey, Georgina Mccartney, Shariq Khalifa, Nicole Jao, Jarrett Renshaw, Trixie Yap, and Alex Lawler in London. Editing by Nia Williams and Alex Lawler.

(source: Reuters)