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Dallas Fed study finds that oil shock hurt US GDP, but the message was resilience.
A new Dallas Fed study estimates that oil surging above $120 per barrel in spring of last year 'cut three-tenths a percentage points from U.S. economic output. However, the impact was only a fraction of the damage caused by a similar oil spike back in the 1980s when imports were more prevalent. After the U.S. supported war against Iran, which led to the closing of the Strait of Hormuz Shipping Lanes, the roughly 15% reduction in global oil supply impacted the commodity markets around the world. Prices rose and supplies became scarcer in some parts of the globe. Dallas Fed researchers estimate that the war caused a 1.7% drop in economic activity outside of the U.S. As a net oil exporter, price changes have a double edged effect on the U.S. They hit consumers when gasoline prices rise but also benefit oil industry firms and stockholders. U.S. efficiency is also improved. Economic output is less dependent on energy today than it was in the past. Dallas Fed economists Lutz Killian, Michael Plante, and Alexander W. Richter created a model to estimate how different impacts net out. They found that the economy was much more resistant to oil price changes than it had been in the 1970s or 1980s, during previous Middle East supply disruptions. These 'earlier disruptions' were smaller, but occurred at a time where the U.S. spent around 8% on oil, compared to around 3% now. The research showed that a similar change in supply to what was experienced in the 1980s would have reduced GDP by 5.6%. In the rest of world, output fell by 6%. These findings confirm recent data that the war has not had a significant impact on the U.S. economy. Job growth in recent months and consumption have been relatively unaffected. Federal Reserve officials are worried about the effect on prices, but they also believe that inflation will be short-lived. The U.S. economic growth rate was around 1.6% per annum in the first three month of this year.
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Climate-vulnerable nations push for global financing framework
Climate-vulnerable nations and major development banks have launched a new initiative aimed at providing more affordable and predictable financing for countries that are increasingly faced with climate shocks and increasing debt costs. Climate Vulnerable Forum and its "V20" finance minsters have agreed on the "Vulnerability To Viability (V2V), which brings together 74 economies, as well as more than a dozen lenders from the World Bank to OPEC Fund in Vienna. The plan aims to fill 'financial gaps left behind by global crises and more frequent and severe droughts, floods, or hurricanes? The Compact is focused on providing affordable and concessional financing, mobilizing private capital, and developing "shock responsive" financing such as loans that have payment suspension clauses. This helps governments maintain essential services in times of crisis. The outline of the initiative stated that it would prioritize investment in "water systems, education systems and health care" sectors which it called "the bedrock for human security". Barbados Prime Minster Mia Mottley, who has been a proponent of the initiative for many years, said that it would correct an "injustice", as debts borrowed to build?sanitation system?,?schools? or hospitals are usually repaid within 10-20 years even though they have served populations?for generations. The group will develop further details including possible financing targets and mechanisms in a White Paper that they expect to present at the World Bank?and IMF annual meetings in?Thailand mid-October. The countries and banks involved in the project added that they are committed to using "concessional resources strategically and catalytically", and continuing coordination. (Reporting and editing by Andrew Cawthorne; Marc Jones)
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The Economy Minister of Italy says that Italy will not be able to hold elections in April next year.
Giancarlo Giorgetti, the Economy Minister said that Italy could not hold a national election this April as it would not allow enough time for the government to approve plans to devolve greater powers to regional authorities. Giorgetti responded to reports in Italian media and Bloomberg stating that Prime Minister Giorgia meloni could seek elections for April of next year. This would be a few month earlier than the deadline set by autumn 2027. Giorgetti told a conference organized by the newspaper La Verita that we could not vote in April in order to finish 'the parliamentary passage' (of the regional-devolution legislation). The supporters of early elections point out that voting at the end?of Meloni?s term?of office in September 2027 would mean there wouldn't be a full-power government during the budget session?in?October. This is a sensitive time when new financial targets are being set. Giorgetti stated in separate remarks that Italy had a good chance to exit a European Union infringement process this year due to its excessive budgetary deficit. Rome's 2025 deficit, as reported by the national statistics bureau ISTAT on March 1, was 3.1% of its gross domestic product. This is just above the 3% limit set by the?EU. Rome cannot leave this procedure because it limits the fiscal room that can be used. Giorgetti stated that "the match isn't yet over", noting that the 2025 budget deficit could be revised lower at a scheduled review in September. He said he did not believe this would happen, but that he still had hope. Giorgetti said that the government will not extend the reduction in fuel excise duties beyond the current deadline on July 3 due to the recent downward trend of diesel and petrol prices. Giorgetti stated that the measure was no longer needed in light of current circumstances. Since its introduction in March, the measure has been extended several times and reduced in size. This was in response to an energy shock caused by the US/Israeli strike on Iran on 28 February. (Reporting and editing by Gavin Jones, Crispi Balmer and Giuseppe Fonte)
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US announces $17.5 Billion in Conditional Loans for Nuclear Power
The U.S. Department of Energy announced a total of $17.5 Billion in conditional loan for 'utilities and energy companies to purchase reactors, and other infrastructure needed to rebuild U.S. Commercial Nuclear Supply Chain. U.S. Energy Sec. Chris Wright told journalists that the loans would help the U.S. reach its goal of having ten new large-scale reactors under construction by 2030. This could potentially accelerate that timeline by three year. Wright said that this has drawn the attention of both data center hyperscalers - tech giants who run a 'global cloud computing and infrastructure' - and energy companies, as U.S. electricity demand has increased?with rapid expansion of data centers for U.S. artificial intelligence capabilities. Wright told reporters that he was confident these projects would be economically beneficial for utility shareholders, ratespayers, and hyperscalers. Energy Dominance Financing (formerly known as Loan Programs Office) of the Energy Department will provide up to five loans. Each loan will be used to support two Westinghouse reactors with a combined power of 1.1 gigawatts on a particular project site. Westinghouse is partnering with up to five eligible utilities and energy providers nationwide, who will "procure" the reactors and other supply chain requirements at a set price. Wright stated that seven utilities had?expressed an interest to date, but refused to disclose their names or the locations of projects. Westinghouse will jointly own each project with a utility or energy company partner. Each will have to commit $500,000,000 before they can access DOE loan funds. Wright stated that "this is not a dangerous endeavor." (Reporting and Editing by William Maclean, Valerie Volcovici)
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Phillips 66 CEO: Hormuz shipping disruptions could last a while
Mark Lashier, CEO of Phillips 66 in the U.S., said 'on Tuesday that it will take some time for crude supplies to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.' This is because there remains uncertainty about a return to normal shipping activity. The Strait of Hormuz continues to be used on a limited scale, which eases immediate concerns about supply and lowers crude prices. Energy companies monitor how quickly crude flow, inventories, and shipping activity returns to normal. Lashier, speaking at a JPMorgan Conference, said that between 90 and 100 million barrels of crude oil remain trapped in this strait. They will eventually find their way out. We believe that the majority of tanks at shore will be full before crude production can increase significantly. It will take a while to fill up those tanks with crude oil. Lashier stated that the market benefited from a quick response to the Strait of Hormuz disruption. He said this helped prevent crude oil prices from reaching $200 per barrel. Phillips 66 processes primarily North American crudes, including Western Canadian Select grades. It was able, he claimed, to run their?refineries "extraordinary rates" despite the disruption. He said that the company had used waivers under the Jones Act, which allows non-U.S. vessels to transport goods in U.S. waters. It moved refined products from the West Coast to the East Coast and crude oil to the West Coast. The release of fuel from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the low inventory at Cushing, Oklahoma's storage hub, were temporary factors, Lashier said. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and the?low inventory at Cushing, Oklahoma's?storage hub were only temporary, said Lashier. We think that there will be a structural change in the crude floor.
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Carnival's forecast for current quarter profits is below estimates due to higher fuel costs
Carnival Corporation forecast third-quarter profits below estimates as fuel prices and geopolitical tensions continue to squeeze margins. Its shares fell about 8% in early trading. After the Middle East conflict, cruise operators who are heavily dependent on fuel oil or marine gas oil have faced a more challenging operating environment. Carnival's second-quarter revenue was also lower than expected. The company said geopolitical instability weighed heavily on bookings. This was particularly true for European itineraries that were close to the conflict. Carnival, the only major U.S. Cruise Operator that does not typically hedge fuel, said it "overcame extreme geopolitical costs and almost 30 percent higher fuel costs" in the third quarter. The revenue of $6.66 Billion for the quarter ending May 31 was below expectations of $6.69 Billion. Carnival has said that its booking position in the second half of this year is higher than it was last year. This is due to the strong demand for luxury travel. "We're now 93 per cent booked for the year, with less inventory left for sale than at this time last years. We are on track to record net yields in the second half 2026," stated CEO Josh Weinstein. According to data compiled by LSEG, the?company's?quarterly earnings per share are expected to be around $1.35. This compares to analysts' expectations of $1.42. It predicted that annual cruise costs adjusted for fuel would be around 2.4%, on a constant-currency basis. This is compared to its previous projection of 3.1%. The shares of peers Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings and Royal Caribbean, who both warned about fuel cost pressures in their first-quarter report, fell by approximately 5% and 2.5%, respectively.
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Sibanye anticipates a 15% decline in global platinum production by 2034
An executive at South Africa's Sibanye Stillwater said that the company expects the?mined?platinum production to fall 15% by 2034 from current levels. The market is also tightening due to a slower-than-expected uptake of electric cars. The use of platinum in autocatalysts is under threat by the increasing number of electric cars, which don't need emission control devices. South African miner, who accounts for 70% of the global platinum production, are hesitant to add new production because they're uncertain about long-term demand. This leads to a decline in output as mineral deposits deplete. Kleantha Pillay is Sibanye’s executive vice-president for sales and marketing. She told analysts that "for?platinum we are looking at around 6.2 million pounds a year by 2019 and we expect this to drop?to just 4.7 million pounds by 2034." According to Johnson Matthey, the global?platinum production is expected to drop to 5.46 millions ounces by 2026 from 5.56million ounces this year. PALLADIUM OUTPUT ALSO EXPECTED TO FALL She said that palladium production, which is a member of the platinum group and can be used to replace platinum in certain applications, will also decline by 15% in 2034 from its current levels. Pillay added that Sibanye predicts electric vehicles will account for 35% of worldwide car sales by 2034. The International Energy Agency had predicted that electric vehicles would have a 50% share of global sales by 2035. Pillay stated that the forecast for battery-electric vehicles has been lowered every year since 2004. She said that the European Union's decision to ease?emission targets last December and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency proposal to delay enforcement of vehicle emission regulations "buys a little more time for combustion engine". Sibanye said it expected recycled PGMs to remain at the current levels of around 5 million ounces and not materially affect market balances. (Reporting and editing by Jan Harvey; Olivia Kumwenda Mtambo, Nelson Banya)
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What is the "Omega Block" causing Europe's intense summer heatwave?
A weather pattern called an omega block is sustaining the intense heatwave that has engulfed Western Europe and caused more than 40 deaths in France alone. What you need to understand about omega 'blocks' and whether they could be more common in the future due to climate change. What is an 'OMEGA BLOCKS'? The Greek letter O is the shape of an omega block, with a bulge between two low pressure systems that are cooler and warmer. The "blocking element" refers to the way in which warm, high-pressure air becomes stuck. In normal conditions, the Jetstream carries weather systems from west to east. The pressure systems are isolated when the flow is disrupted by an omega block. These'slow-moving patterns' are caused by weaker steering winds, and by temperature contrasts within the atmosphere. This results in hot still air being trapped over the same region. The average lifespan of an Omega block is between 3 and 10 days. However, they can last for several weeks. WHAT HAPPENS WHEN AN OMEGA BLOCKS? Conditions become hot and dry in the?area of high-pressure?in the middle. High pressure suppresses the formation of clouds, which results in clear skies and sunny skies, which allow temperatures to rise. Conditions like this are baking France, Spain and other countries where temperatures have risen above 40 degrees Celsius. Low-pressure zones flanking the hotspot are likely to experience cooler and rainier conditions. According to the UK Met Office, Britain is located on the boundary of a high-pressure system and a cooler air mass in the northwest, causing intense heat in south and east and cooler and wetter conditions north and west. IS CLIMATE CHAIN RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS? Scientists are not yet in agreement on?how climate changes?affect the frequency of events such as this one. Global scientific consensus, however, is that climate change increases the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. Since pre-industrial times, greenhouse gas emissions mainly from coal, oil and gas burning have warmed the earth by about 1.3 C. Heatwaves are more intense when the baseline temperature is higher. Clair Barnes, research associate at Imperial College London in extreme weather, climate and climate, says that Europe now experiences 'heatwaves 2 to 4 degrees hotter than would have occurred without human-caused warming. When patterns such as omega blocks are observed, the heat that results can be much more intense. (Reporting and editing by Richard Lough, Ros Russell and Kate Abnett)
Bangladesh calls for more climate finance support after saying that the $300 billion target falls short
Bangladesh demanded on Tuesday that the $300 billion per year global climate financing goal be increased to meet developing country needs. Tarique Rahman, the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, urged wealthy countries to honor their climate commitments before the next United Nations climate negotiations, which will take place in November. He spoke at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting of the New Champions, held in Dalian, China. Bangladesh, one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change is looking for'support to finance projects that will help it cope with rising flooding, cyclones and river?erosion, as well as saltwater intrusion.
At the U.N. Climate Summit in 2024, countries had agreed to increase their annual climate financing provision to $300 billion. But Rahman said this was not enough to meet mitigation and adaptation requirements of developing countries.
He urged a greater?mobilisation' of the U.N.'s Green Climate Fund, and urged government to make climate financing more accessible.
He said that the Loss and Damage Fund should move beyond promises to deliver, by providing a predictable and accessible support for victims nations.
Rahman said that adaptation measures are crucial for countries such as Bangladesh. They'must stand side by side with emissions reduction efforts.' He cited a number of domestic initiatives, including dredging 12,500 km (12,500 miles) worth of rivers and canals to reduce flooding, and planting 250 million trees.
He said that "climate resilience?cannot by built by one country alone." He called for stronger global partnerships in finance, technology, and action. (Reporting and editing by Milla Nissi - Prussak).
(source: Reuters)