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Chevron will double the number of oil rigs in Venezuela to support its growth plan
Eimear Bonner, Chevron's Chief Financial Officer, said that the company will double the number of oil rigs in Venezuela as part of a five-year plan to increase production in the country. Last week, U.S. Oil Major announced that its joint venture partnership in Venezuela will invest more than $7 billion to double oil production to 600,000 barrels per day by 2031. The company has maintained its presence in Venezuela for years despite political turmoil. And the Trump administration has been urging oil companies to invest there following 'the removal of President Nicolas Maduro from power by U.S. troops. Bonner stated that Chevron expects the production to plateau between 600,000.00 and 700,000.00 bpd once the joint ventures reach 600,000.00 bpd. She said, "The large base of resources gives us the chance to extend this plateau for 5-10 years and that is just the initial recovery." There's more upside to be had." Bonner said that Chevron received a right to arbitration in international courts as part of the new contract terms signed last week. Other oil producers, such as?ExxonMobil or ConocoPhillips who left Venezuela in 2007 after their assets were nationalized, have cited the ability to'resolve any potential disputes through international arbitration courts'. They claim they still owe money.
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European shares tempered as oil rally fuels cautiousness; Novartis tumbles
Investors were cautious on Tuesday due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, and higher oil prices. Novartis also suffered its biggest one-day drop in history after reporting another setback in its drug development pipeline. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell 0.05% to 649.6. Novartis' 10.9% drop in the benchmark Swiss index weighed on the overall index, which fell by 1.6%. Novartis, the Swiss drugmaker, was the largest faller in the STOXX 600 index after it announced that its experimental treatment of a muscle-wasting condition had failed a late-stage study. News of the failure came just a day after Novartis revealed that its experimental cholesterol drug also failed in a closely-watched late-stage trial. Brent crude futures were hovering around $98 per barrel. Energy shares rose?0.6%. Oil prices increased after Houthi forces, who are aligned with Iran in Yemen, attacked Saudi Arabian cities and energy facilities. This highlights the danger that the conflict will spread across the region. Copper prices also rose, boosting mining stocks. Boliden Antofagasta KGHM all gained between 4.6% to 6.3% while the broader European Mining Index grew by 2%. German exports dropped unexpectedly in July. Weaker shipments to European Union and China highlighted the fragility of trade-driven growth in Europe's biggest economy. Focus on RISING RATE Bets The recent sell-off of global bonds has been attributed to the rising oil prices. This is also a factor in the expectation that central banks will need to continue to restrict their monetary policies. Investors expect that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates on Thursday by 25 basis points. Markets still expect another rate increase by the end of this year and in 2027, despite policymakers' limited appetite for tightening. "Any increases beyond September will move the policy away from the insurance end of the spectrum and into the restrictive side. This shift is still?not sufficiently supported by the data", ING analysts wrote in a recent note. Markets could also be underestimating the concerns over tightening and potential spillovers into European bond markets. The U.S. Inflation data is due this week. ?The inflation report follows a stronger-than-expected U.S. ?jobs reading that reinforced bets on another ?Federal Reserve rate hike this month. Kion Group, among other movers in the market, rose 6.8% following Citi's upgrade of the German forklift manufacturer to "buy" (from "neutral") citing a possible turning point in industrial-truck cycles.
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Chile inflation quickens in August, testing rate-cut hopes
Official data released on Tuesday showed that Chilean consumer prices increased 0.6% from July to August, exceeding market expectations. This is the highest monthly increase since April. The rate of growth in the month of August was?0.1%, up from?0.1% last July. It exceeded the median forecast of 0.3% in an?economists' poll and traders at central banks. The INE statistics agency said that the 'biggest upward pressure' came from transport and food. Transport grew 1.6%, whereas food and non-alcoholic beverages increased 1.4%. Nine of the 13 categories included in the consumer basket showed monthly price increases. The annual inflation rate increased to 4.1% in August from 3.5%, which is outside the tolerance range set by the central bank of 3% plus or minus a percentage point. In a recent note, a group of?Scotiabank analyst said that "inflation expectations are likely to rise." They added that the 'central bank' could raise its forecast for the year-end of 4.2%, partly reflecting the effects caused by the weather phenomenon El Nino. The savings and credit cooperative Coopeuch's analysts said that the report on inflation supported a cautious policy from policymakers. In a meeting scheduled for later Tuesday, the central bank of Chile is expected to maintain its benchmark rate at 4.5 percent.
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Venezuela's mining industry: More data is needed on its geological potential
Here are some facts about Venezuela's Mining Sector, which has attracted the interest of President Donald Trump's Administration. CONFUSION AROUND RESOURCES AND RESERVES Then-Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, and Delcy Rodrguez, the?acting president, announced in 2019 a five-year plan to boost mineral extraction, as an alternative to oil production. The previous year, Venezuela's government published data on its mineral deposits, using terms from the mining industry interchangeably. This included reserves and resources. It was difficult to determine whether Caracas understood its full potential. A reserve is a volume estimate for a mineral which can be economically produced. The volume of a particular mineral in a region is called a resource, regardless of its economic production. The 2018 report was published by Venezuela's Mining Ministry website as a "minerals catalog" for investors. It estimated that coal reserves were approximately 3 billion metric tonnes and nickel reserves at 407,885?metric tons. The same report also estimated that a gold reserve of 644 metric tonnes, an iron ore of 14.68 billion metric tones -- although it was acknowledged that much of this estimate was speculative -- and a resource of bauxite of 321.5 millions metric tons. Venezuela published in 2021 a map showing mineral reserves, based on 2009 data. The map listed antimony, copper and nickel reserves, as well as coltan, magnesium, molybdenum (molybdenum), titanium, tungsten, and silver. However, it did not include the volumes. Rare earths are a grouping 17 minor metals which is used in magnets to turn energy into motion. The country doesn't appear to have large reserves. Rare earths is a subset critical minerals. OPERATIONAL STATUS UNCLEAR It is unclear what the operational status of mines linked to Maduro’s five-year plans are. Maduro's National Council for Productive Economy said late last year that national production of coal, gold and iron ore increased in the first quarters of 2025. However, it did not provide figures. Venezuela nationalized the gold sector in 2011. The government controls CVG, a maker of iron and steel. Last year, it was reported that Venezuela had restarted its coal production and aimed at exporting more than 10,000,000 metric tons by 2025. The government has not yet confirmed whether it met its target. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that Venezuela produced 100,000 tons of coal in 2019 from 731 million tons of reserves. USGS data for 2021 shows that Venezuelan bauxite production will be 250,000 metric tonnes, down from 2017's 550,000 metric tonnage. Iron ore production, on an iron content basis was 1,41 million metric tonnage, while gold production was only 480 kg. The USGS estimated that alumina production, which is the substance that can be refined from bauxite to produce aluminum metal, would drop to 80,000 tons by 2021. This was down from the 240,000 tons produced four years ago. Aluminum production is estimated at 20,000 tons, a decrease from 144,000 tons in 2017.
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Kazakh gold miner Solidcore announces no more shareholder payouts following buyback and targets expansion
Kazakh gold miner, Solidcore Resources Plc (formerly Polymetal International), which announced plans to buy back shares worth up to $1.2billion, has said that it does not intend to return any more capital to shareholders until they achieve the goals set forth in their strategy for 2029. Chief Executive Vitaly Nesse confirmed this. Tuesday, the company launched a tender to buy up to 23.2% (or $11.66) of its current capital at $11.66 a share. The offer will run between September 9 and October 12, 2009. Nesis stated that the company chose to buy back shares 'because of better liquidity and recognition that not every shareholder is willing to support its aggressive growth strategy. Nesis explained that they chose a buyback because it allowed them to distinguish between those who wanted to cash out, and those who preferred to remain 'invested' rather than taking money off the table. This will be a watershed event. We made the transaction so large deliberately because we don't plan to distribute any more capital until we reach our strategic goal. This is a "unique opportunity." Maaden International Investment of Oman, the largest shareholder with a stake of 31.7% in the company, has agreed not to take part in this buyback. Solidcore, which sold its Russian business to a private company in 2024 has suspended dividends. It is pursuing a strategy of doubling production and reserves by acquisitions. The Ertis POX Project will be completed by 2029. Nesis stated that the company is considering additional acquisitions in 'Oman, and other Gulf countries in particular Saudi Arabia. They are also exploring opportunities in Africa including partnering with Minerals Development Oman, as well as in Tajikistan, and 'Uzbekistan. Solidcore, a joint-venture with MDO, announced that it would announce another agreement with a new partner in the next few weeks.
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Kazakh gold miner Solidcore announces no more shareholder payouts following buyback and targets expansion
Kazakh gold miner, Solidcore Resources Plc (formerly Polymetal International), has announced plans to repurchase shares worth up to $1.2 billion. However, the company does not intend to return any more capital to its shareholders until they achieve their objectives as set forth in their strategy for 2029. The company launched on Tuesday a tender offer to buy up to 23.2% (or $11.66 each) of its current share capital between September 9 and December 12. Nesis said the company chose to 'buy back' shares because of a?improved liquidity and recognition that not everyone is willing to support its aggressive growth strategy. Nesis explained that they chose a buyback because it allowed them to differentiate between those shareholders who wanted to cash out and those who preferred to remain 'invested' rather than take money off of the table. This will be a "watershed moment." We intentionally?made this transaction so large because we do not plan to make any further capital distributions once the transaction is complete. This is an opportunity that will not come around again.
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New York Fed survey shows consumers are more concerned about their personal finances and employment.
The New York Federal Reserve reported that the outlook of U.S. households for inflation remained unchanged in August as their?worries?about the job market?and the state of?their?personal finances grew. In the latest Survey of Consumer Expectations from the regional Fed bank, respondents held steady to their projections of inflation of 3.6% a year hence and 3% in five years. They also marked down inflation expectations in three years from 3.3% to 3.2%. The report stated that respondents in August predicted higher gasoline prices within a year. Although households' inflation expectations did not change much, their outlook for hiring and personal finances grew?more uncertain. In August, respondents to the survey increased their expectations of the unemployment rate in a year's time. This was the highest reading since April 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic devastated the economy. This expectation was noted to be based on a wide range of factors, including age, income level and education. The expectation of losing a job decreased in August compared to July. In the report, the likelihood of a 'new job' in the case of an involuntary loss of a job was also lower than the survey conducted in July. In the August survey, respondents rated their financial situation now and in one year as well as their opinions on credit. This week, the key data on inflation is due. The report was released a week ahead of the U.S. Central Bank's two-day meeting. The Fed's benchmark overnight rate is set at 3.50% to 3.75%, but there is uncertainty about what it will do. Policymakers are still struggling with an inflation rate that is well above their 2% target. The release of the Consumer Price Index for August on Friday is pivotal to the outcome of the policy meeting scheduled for September 15-16. Many Fed officials believe that the data they use could be decisive in determining their policy. At a NEXT Newsmaker Event last Thursday, Fed governor Christopher?Waller stated that if the upcoming report on inflation shows continued progress towards?our 2% target, I would be willing to hold the policy rate where it is. However, other Fed officials remain prepared to raise?rates. In a Friday posting on LinkedIn, Beth Hammack of the Cleveland Fed, who had voted for a rate increase at the July meeting, stated that given the inflationary pressures in her district it was "time to act" in order to reduce the price pressures. This indicates she is still in support of a rate rise at next week's meetings.
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Investors await US data and tariff clarity as copper prices set to reach $15,000
Analysts?said that copper?prices may break through $15,000 this week for the first-ever time, as investors prepare for another round of U.S.?economic?data and President Donald Trump continues to keep the market guessing about import tariffs. The benchmark copper price on the London Metal Exchange reached a record high of $14,779 a metric ton. This was the fourth session in a row that the rally continued. Will it reach $15,000 this coming week due to Trump's tariff confusion?" "Yes, it's possible," said Panmure Liberum Analyst Tom Price. You can choose any large number when you have this much speculative money behind a trading concept. The U.S.?proposed? a 15% duty on imported refined copper starting in 2027. This would rise to 30% by 2028. However, the U.S. neither confirmed or ruled out such a tariff. Copper has been flowing into COMEX warehouses approved in the U.S. due to the prospect of tariffs, which is draining inventories in China and the LME. LME is a combined LME of just over 300,000 tonnes. ShFE Copper stocks are less than half COMEX stock Imports from the United States are at record levels of 695,624 tonnes, and an arbitrage window that is open has helped to fuel this. DATA IN FOCUS Alastair Munro is a senior base metals analyst at Marex. He said that macro events this week could determine whether the copper price increase lasts. Details on a U.S. Treasury Bond Buyback are expected on Wednesday, and U.S. Consumer Price Index -data for August will be released on Friday. Broker Sucden Financial said in a note that copper could be susceptible to profit-taking, if the dollar recovers following the CPI release. A stronger ?U.S. The dollar makes metals denominated in dollars more expensive to investors who use other currencies. Sucden stated that there was still room for further gains, if copper held above $14,400. Amy?Gower is the head of metals, mining and commodity strategy for Morgan Stanley. The bank remains 'positive' on copper until 2026. Gower stated that "However, while we are cautious for 2027 where the U.S. demand for imports is likely to be?softer, if tariffs were either in place or ruled out." John Meyer, analyst at SP Angel, believes that copper prices will continue to rise as long as there is uncertainty about tariffs. There's a lot of copper around the world but all the physical copper is in the United States.
Quotes-Russians Nabiullina, Zabotkin, and Zabotkin discuss the key rate, fuel shortages and war in Iran
Elvira Nabiullina, the Russian Central Bank Governor and Alexei Zabotkin, her deputy, addressed a Friday press conference after the central banks cut its key interest rate by 25 basis point to 14.25%. Nabiullina spoke in Russian and Zabotkin in English. The following quotes were translated into English by.
NABIULLINA ON RATE DECISION
"...The positions of the participants in the discussion on the important rate decision differed along 3 main lines. First, the first thing to consider is the stability of inflation rates in recent months.
The second item is an assessment of inflationary factors which have emerged since the last Board of Directors meeting. This includes a change in the budgetary plans for 2026 and the following years. On the supply side, the reduction of fuel production is one example.
"The third parameter, the assessment of tightness in monetary conditions is important." It is crucial to note that credit growth has accelerated significantly over the past 2-3 months.
Almost all participants agreed that there is less room for rate reductions. The extent of the reduction was discussed at the meeting.
NABIULLINA ON THE IMPACT OF FUEL SHORTAGE AND RAISING PETROL PRICE ON INFLATION
"...it will be very important to see if this has an impact on the cost of a variety of goods.
NABIULLINA ON THE WAR IN IRAN
"Overall, the impact of the conflict is difficult to estimate, even if the conflict were to end definitively. It is too early to judge the effects on global economics and inflation. In many countries, this has already affected economic trends and price increases. This may also have an impact on the Russian economy if future demand for goods is concerned.
"So far the impact of the crisis has been disinflationary. Exporters are seeing increased revenues and the exchange rates have strengthened. However, there are certain pro-inflationary impacts already in place. These include increasing logistics costs and higher import prices. We said that inflationary risks would increase the longer the conflict lasted. "We now believe, should the war end, that these inflationary risk will be lower than what we previously expected."
*NABIULLINA ON RECIPES FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH
"I believe that we, as well as the government, are more interested in making sure that the economy is growing sustainably than in seeing rapid growth rates. Nobody wants to see an abrupt increase in growth rates, followed by a crash. The key factor to a sustainable economic growth is an increase in the productivity of workers. I'm convinced of this, and have stated it on many occasions.
"We're behind on this front; the rate of growth in labour productivity at present is insufficient. In conditions of full employment, the key is, of course to increase labour productivity. I believe all policy should focus on this.
"At precisely the same time, the monetary policy that creates conditions for stable prices and moderate interest rate is capable of supporting those efforts to increase labour productivity.
This is my solution. "Any sort of quick fix" - the idea that we can have sustainable economic growth by handing out cheap money - is unrealistic. It's just populism."
*NABIULLINA - GDP GROWTH & THE RISKS OF AN ECONOMIC SLOCKWISE
"We expect growth in the first half of this year of about 0.5%." Preliminary data shows that business activity in the entire country grew in May. We also see an increase in consumer activity. We don't see any risk of an overheating economy.
"Let me remind that the main indicators for an economic slowdown are falling inflation, rising unemployment, and a decline in real household incomes. All of these indicators do not exist. A balanced monetary policy protects the economy against such a scenario."
*NABIULLINA ON SUPPORT FOR THE STOCK MARKET
"Yes, there is a lot of volatility in the market, but that doesn't make it extraordinary. There is no reason to buy assets. It is also important to realize that stock market fluctuations are unavoidable. The long-term trend should be considered. If someone thinks that the shares are undervalued or that they require temporary support, that's a good reason to purchase them.
On REVISING THE KEY TRAJECTORY RATES FORECAST
Nabiullina said: "Inflationary risk has now increased and, if there is any revision to the forecast of the key rate trajectory, it will be more likely upwards than downwards.
"It is unlikely that the scope to lower the key rate before the end of this year and possibly into next year has diminished. Not because we think that the aggregate demand should be cooled, but because the government's demand will contribute more to GDP growth and demand in 2026-2027. This means that the private sector will have to reduce its contribution.
We must prevent this from happening, as everyone will lose: the public, business, and those who call for a rapid reduction in interest rates. If inflation "accelerates", market rates won't fall, but rise."
Zabotkin: If, by 2028, the fiscal policy still does not operate under a structural primary deficit of zero, then monetary policy, if all else is equal, will most likely not be neutral either.
NABIULLINA ON HER PROLONGED SICK LEAVE, WHICH FUELLED RUMOURS SHE HAD LOST HER JOB
"I can confirm that I had a cold, and my voice was gone for a short time." "All I can do is say thank you to all those who cared about my health."
NABIULLINA ON THE CENTRAL BANK'S LAWSUIT WITH EUROCLEAR OVER FREEZING OF ASSETS
"I cannot disclose any details, but I can reiterate our general position...We will use all legal measures to protect our rights." Reporting by Darya Kosunskaya, Anastasia Lyrchikova. Compiled by Lucy Papachristou. Edited by Mark Trevelyan.
(source: Reuters)