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Estonian spy chief: Putin is faced with'very hard choices' in Ukraine, as sanctions bite

Estonia's chief of foreign intelligence said that Russian President Vladimir Putin is limited in his options for a victory in Ukraine, as his military forces are unable to make significant progress on the battlefield and Western sanctions are eroding his resources.

Kaupo Rosin is a leading'spy' on NATO’s eastern flank. He told us that Russia was losing more men in its?fifth full-scale year of war than they were recruiting. A general mobilisation, he said, would be unpopular and could undermine stability.

"All these factors are creating a scenario where some people, including those at the highest levels in Russia, understand that they have an enormous problem. In an interview with Tallinn, he stated that it is hard to know what Putin's thoughts are on the matter. However, I believe all of these factors have started to influence his decision making. In recent months, Russian forces have made some of the slowest advances in Ukraine since 2023 - one year after they invaded Ukraine. The economy of Russia, which is worth $3 trillion, contracted by 0.3% during the first quarter. Putin has said that government measures to boost Russia's economy are starting to yield positive results. He has also repeatedly stated that Russian forces will continue to fight until they achieve all of their goals. Rosin stated that the "real, real hurt" of sanctions against the financial sector was the primary reason for the "bad" financial situation in Russia. He also said that punitive measures taken on Russia's crude oil exports are also limiting the country's income.

It's a very difficult choice for them right now. In this situation, it's difficult to predict what they will do.

Estonia, which has a land border to Russia, is one of the most vocal supporters of Ukraine within NATO and in the European Union. It has also urged its allies repeatedly to increase pressure on Moscow.

"My message is to push ahead with (sanctions). He said that now is not the right time to hesitate.

No sign of a 'big breakthrough' towards peace

Unidentified, another European intelligence chief said that there are clear signs of increasing pressure on Russia but that this has not yet changed Moscow's war calculus.

The chief stated that it was difficult to imagine Russia abandoning its goal to take the entire Donbass area.

Russia insisted that Ukraine withdraw from eastern Donbas as part of any agreement, but Kyiv rejected this proposal.

The Donbas region includes the Russian-occupied Luhansk province and the Donetsk area, parts of which Ukraine was able to defend for years against the Russian offensive.

The spy chief said that it did not appear as if Russia was attempting to change its war objectives or if there was going to be a "big breakthrough". The spy chief characterized Russian society as resilient.

The official stated that it was "wishful thinking" to think that Russia's leadership is in some way diminishing or Putin has been challenged (domestically )...").

BIG MILITARY AMBITIONS

The Estonian spy chief said that Russia would not abandon its goal of subjugating Ukraine as long as Putin was in power. They also predicted they would keep a large military force on the borders of Ukraine even after the war ended.

He also said that once the fighting has ended, Moscow will expand its military along NATO's border and "achieve military dominance" from the Arctic to the Black Sea. He said that the Russians' military ambitions were "very, very large" and predicted they would continue to carry out a sabotage campaign in the West, regardless of the danger it poses to civilian lives.

Russia has always denied involvement in any sabotage plans or attacks and dismisses these accusations as Western scaremongering.

Rosin stated that "Russia views this (such attacks as) something which does not ignite a war." (Editing by Chizu Nomiyama).

(source: Reuters)