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The oil price plunges amid fears of a global trade war triggering recession
The oil prices fell more than 3% Monday, extending the losses of last week, as trade tensions between China and the United States escalated, stoking fears that a recession would lower demand for crude. Brent futures fell $2.28 or 3.5% to $63.30 a bar at 0049 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude futures dropped $2.20 or 3.6% to $59.79. Both benchmarks reached their lowest levels since April 2021 at the session low. Oil fell 7% on the Friday after China increased tariffs on U.S. products, intensifying a trade conflict that has caused investors to price in an increased probability of recession. Brent has lost 10.9% over the last week while WTI is down 10.6%. Satoru Yushida is a commodity analyst at Rakuten Securities. He said that the primary reason for the decline was the fear of tariffs affecting the global economy. He added that retaliatory duties from other countries will also be a factor to watch. Yoshida said that WTI might fall to $50 or even $55 if the stock market continues to decline. China announced on Friday that it would add additional tariffs of 34% to American goods in response to U.S. president Donald Trump's tariffs. This confirms investor fears of a full-blown trade war and the risk of recession for the global economy. Oil prices could be affected by Trump's new tariffs on imports of refined products, oil and gas. The policies could also stoke inflation and slow the economic growth. Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve chair, said that Trump's tariffs were "larger than anticipated" and the economic fallout will likely be higher inflation and slower development. Over the weekend, OPEC+ ministers emphasized the need to fully comply with oil production targets and asked overproducers submit plans to compensate for pumping excessive amounts of oil by April 15. (Reporting and editing by Nick Zieminski, Sonali Paul, and Yuka Obayashi)
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Nikkei reports that Toyota will increase the number of EV models from 15 to 1 million and target production by 2027.
Toyota plans to develop 15 electric car models on its own before 2027, and will aim to produce 1 million vehicles a year at that time, according the Nikkei paper on Sunday. Toyota refused to comment on the matter, stating that the information had not been announced by the company. Nikkei reported that Toyota produces only five EVs, all of which are developed by itself, and are manufactured in Japan and China. The Nikkei said that expanding production to the United States and Thailand can reduce delivery times and help mitigate tariff and exchange rate risks. Business daily Nikkei reported that among the 15 EV models, some are from Lexus, its luxury brand. Nikkei said that Toyota expects to make about 800,000 vehicles in 2026. This is a drop of nearly 50% compared to its original plan. Toyota previously stated that it planned to sell 1.5 millions EVs annually by 2026, and 3.5 Million by 2030. The numbers were referred to as benchmarks rather than targets. It sold nearly 140,000 EVs worldwide in 2024. This is an increase of about a third compared to the previous year. These EVs accounted for less that 2% of the company's total global sales, which exceeded 10 million.
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Oil prices continue to fall amid fears of a global trade war slowing the economy
On Monday, oil prices dropped more than 3%, continuing losses from the week before, amid growing fears that a global economic slowdown and weakening of oil demand could be caused by a trade war, after China's retaliation to U.S. president Donald Trump's tariffs. Brent futures fell $2.1, or 3.2 %, to $63.48 a bar at 2227 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude futures dropped $2.14 or 3.5 % to $59.85. Both benchmarks fell 7% on the Friday, reaching their lowest levels in more than three years. This was due to China increasing tariffs on U.S. products. The trade war has accelerated and investors have priced in a greater probability of recession. China responded to Trump's new tariffs by announcing on Friday that it would add an additional 34% levies on American goods. This confirms investor fears of a full-blown trade war and the risk of recession in the global economy. JPMorgan, the investment bank, now predicts that there will be a global recession by the end of this year. This is up from its previous estimate of 40%. (Reporting and editing by Nick Zieminski.)
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Palestinian officials: Israeli settler shoots dead Palestinian teenager who has U.S. citizenship
A Palestinian teenager who had U.S. passport was shot dead by an Israeli settler on Sunday in Turmus Ayya in the West Bank. The tensions are continuing to rise amid a surge of settler violence, and daily confrontations between Israelis and Palestinians in the occupied territories. Adeeb lafi, the mayor of Turmus Ayya said that Omar Mohammad Rabea was killed along with two other teens by an Israeli settler near the entrance to Turmus Ayya. Two of them were taken by ambulance to nearby medical centers and then hospital. Lafi reported that the army detained a third boy who was 14 and had U.S. Citizenship. Lafi said that the army declared Rabea dead later and still holds his body. The Palestinian Health Ministry confirmed his death and said he had been killed by "occupational forces." The Israeli army has not yet responded to the report. Since the Gaza War began in October 2023, settler violence in the West Bank has increased, including incursions in occupied territory, raids on Bedouin villages, and encampments. The European Union and the former U.S. Administration under President Joe Biden imposed restrictions on violent Israeli settlers. However, the White House under Donald Trump has removed these sanctions. Reporting by Ali Sawafta; writing by Hatem Mahar; editing by Chizu Nomiyama
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Kentucky reports 2 deaths after flooding, but there have been more than a dozen recent deaths in other US regions
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear announced on Sunday that over 500 roads in the state were closed due to dangerous storms and flooding, which also killed more than a dozen other people in the U.S. South & Midwest in the last week. "Kentucky is experiencing record flooding in our state with more than 500 road closures. The rivers haven't crested yet, so there is still a day or more of rising water. Beshear told social media platform X that "we've lost two of our citizens." Police in Frankfort, Kentucky said that a 9 year-old boy was killed in Kentucky when he was drowned by floodwaters while walking to his bus stop. Beshear said on Sunday that water was scarce in Frankfort and many homes had been evacuated. He also announced Monday's closure of state offices. In the last week, a deadly spring storm caused tornadoes to erupt and torrential rains to fall in an area stretching from Texas up through Ohio. Tennessee's local health department reported 10 deaths during this time period. Local media reported that in addition to the Kentucky governor's two deaths, there were two deaths in Missouri, and one death each in Arkansas and Indiana. Climate Central, a nonprofit organization that studies weather patterns, says climate change will bring heavier rain and floods to most of the U.S. The upper Midwest and Ohio River Valley are the most affected regions. Reporting by Kanishka Sing in Washington, editing by Chizu Nomiayama
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Trump advisor says that more than 50 countries have reached out to the White House in order to begin trade negotiations.
Douglas Gillison & Ted Hesson WASHINGTON - On Sunday, more than 50 countries had contacted the White House in order to start trade negotiations, according to a top adviser to U.S. president Donald Trump. This was as U.S. officials defended the new, massive tariffs which have caused global chaos. Kevin Hassett, Director of the U.S. National Economic Council, denied in an interview with ABC News' "This Week" that Trump's tariffs are part of his strategy to crash the financial markets and pressure the U.S. Federal Reserve into cutting interest rates. He stated that there would be no "political pressure" on the central bank. Trump posted a video on Truth Social on Friday that implied his tariffs were designed to deliberately hammer down the stock market in order to lower interest rates. Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury secretary, said in a separate interview with NBC News’s Meet the Press that there is "no reason to expect" a recession based solely on the tariffs. Trump shocked economies around the globe after he announced tariffs on U.S. imported goods on Wednesday. This triggered retaliatory measures from China, and sparked fears of a global trade war and recession. Top Trump officials appeared on Sunday morning talk shows to try and portray the tariffs in a positive light, as an intelligent repositioning by the U.S. within the global trading order. They also tried to paint the economic disruptions in a negative light as a temporary fallout. The U.S. stock market has fallen by about 10% in just two days after Trump announced his new global tariff regime, which was much more aggressive than analysts or investors expected. Market analysts and major investors blame this drop on Trump's aggressive tariffs. Most economists and U.S. Federal Reserve head believe that Trump's aggressive approach to tariffs could cause inflation and damage economic growth. Markets that have been stunned by tariffs will face another week. Potential Tariff Trouble Investors are on edge following the worst week of U.S. stock prices since the COVID-19 Crisis five years ago. Hassett said that ABC News' "This Week" reported that Trump's tariffs have so far prompted "more than fifty" countries to contact White House for trade talks. Taiwan's president Lai Ching Te on Sunday offered zero tariffs As the basis for negotiations with the U.S. Hassett, unlike other economists said that he didn't expect consumers to be hit hard because exporters would likely lower prices. Bessent said to NBC News that he didn't anticipate a recession based upon the tariffs. stronger-than-anticipated U.S. jobs growth. Bessent stated that "we could see that the number of jobs on Friday was above expectations and that we are progressing. I do not see any reason to price in a possible recession."
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Wall St Week ahead-Shell-shocked Markets brace themselves for more tariff turmoil
After the worst week in U.S. stock markets since the start of the coronavirus epidemic five years ago, investors are on edge about the potential fallout of President Donald Trump's import levies. Investors are looking for signs that the stock market is nearing a bottom, at least in the short term. Trump's tariffs have shook global asset prices. The S&P 500 index registered its largest weekly decline since March 2020, while the Nasdaq Composite ended Friday down over 20% from its record high in December. This confirms that the tech-heavy index is currently in a bearish market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week well below its record high from December, indicating a correction. After Trump's Wednesday announcement, the markets were in a tailspin and fears of a recession arose. Jeffrey Palma is the head of multi-asset solution at Cohen & Steers. There are many questions regarding tariffs and retaliatory duties, as well as where the situation ends. The S&P 500 closed the week down by over 17% compared to its all-time high of February 19. According to LSEG, in the two days after Trump's announcement of tariffs, S&P companies lost $5 trillion in value. This is the biggest amount in two days. Matthew Miskin is co-chief investment analyst at John Hancock Investment Management. This kind of decline... could lead to a weakening in economic activity. Trump's tariffs will be the most significant trade barriers for more than a hundred years. They include a baseline 10% tariff on all imports, and targeted higher duties on dozens countries. China responded with 34% additional tariffs on U.S. products on Friday, intensifying the trade war. Investors have downgraded economic and earnings predictions, with JPMorgan analysts increasing the risk of global recession to 60% this year from 40% previously. Investors hoped that Trump would make deals with certain countries in the coming days to reduce tariffs. Some investors were skeptical that Trump would make any concessions. Citi strategist Scott Chronert wrote in a Friday note that despite Trump's chance to pivot, the "window is closing and some damage may have already been done to consumer and business trust regardless of what the final negotiated point is," The Cboe Volatility Index (an options-based measure for investor anxiety) has reached its highest level since April 2020. The American Association of Individual Investors' survey showed a bearish mood at 61.9%. This is the highest level since 2009. Investors are cautious of gloomy financial forecasts, as tariffs have clouded the outlook. U.S. firms will begin reporting their quarterly results in earnest this week. According to LSEG IBES, S&P earnings should have risen 7.8% from the previous period in the first quarter. Major banks JPMorgan & Wells Fargo are due to report on April 11, 2019. In a note published on Friday, RBC Capital Markets analysts cut their earnings forecasts for 2025. Keith Lerner is co-chief investment officers at Truist Advisory Services. He said that the market's decline and growing pessimism may mean that news stories are less likely to be able to boost stocks. Lerner explained that "if you had something even remotely positive at this time, you might see a spark in the short term because people are preparing for a negative outcome." The consumer price index report for the month of March, due out on Thursday, could also help establish a baseline in terms of inflation in the United States, before the tariffs are implemented, which will likely increase the pressure on prices. Investors are preparing for more Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2019 in response to the announcement of tariffs. According to LSEG, Fed fund futures account for 100 basis point of easing in 2019. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated on Friday that tariffs were "larger than anticipated" and the economic fallout will likely be as well, including higher inflation, slower growth and. Palma of Cohen & Steers said that it is important for the markets to be stable in the next few days. Palma stated that "we've had a couple of really, really big market days." What we don't want is for this to start a vicious cycle which destabilizes our financial system. Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; additional reporting in San Francisco by Noel Randewich; editing by David Gregorio
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Libya devalues its currency for the first time in 4 years
Libya's central banks announced on Sunday a 13.3% drop in the value of its dinar currency, putting the rate at 5,5677 dollars to the dinar. This is the first devaluation official since the bank agreed on a devalued rate of 4,48 dinars per dollar in 2020. The current parallel market exchange rate for dinars is 7.20 dinars per dollar. The black market for the dinar fell against the dollar in September of last year due to a crisis involving the central bank, which slashed the oil production and exports. Later in September, the crisis was resolved following an agreement between representatives of Libya's rival east and west legislative bodies. The United Nations facilitated the agreement that led to the appointment of the new central bank governor. The eastern-based speaker of the parliament reduced the tax rate on foreign currency purchases from 20% to 15% in November. When people purchase foreign currency from commercial banks, the tax is added. Since 2011, when NATO supported an uprising, Libya has suffered from instability. This led to a split between the eastern and western factions in 2014. Each was governed by rival governments. In a Sunday statement, the central banks said that the spending by the two governments for 2024 was 224 billion dinars (46 billion dollars), which included 42 billion dinars in crude-for fuel swaps. It said that the public debt was 270 billion dinars and projected that it would exceed 330 dinars at the end of 2025 because of the lack of an unified budget. Stephanie Koury (Deputy Head of the U.N. Mission to Libya) urged Libya's decision makers to "urgently come to an agreement on a framework to spend in 2025, with agreed limits and supervision". $1 = 4.8250 Libyan Dinars (Reporting and editing by Jaidaa Taka, Ahmed Tolba, and Ahmed Elumami)
Vietnam states Saudi Aramco wishes to buy oil refining, gas circulation
Oil huge Saudi Aramco wants to invest in the oil refinery sector and petroleum distribution in Vietnam, the Southeast Asian nation's. federal government stated in a declaration released late on Tuesday.
The statement came after a meeting in between Prime Minister. Pham Minh Chinh and Saudi Aramco's president Amin. Al-Nasser in Riyadh during Chinh's check out to the Middle East.
Vietnam has great prospective in the area, therefore,. Aramco wishes to buy oil refinery and gas circulation. in the country, the Vietnamese federal government statement said.
Aramco prompted authorities to create beneficial conditions to. boost cooperation with Vietnamese partners, the declaration added.
It did not elaborate on the time frame or the size of the. financial investment.
Aramco and Vietnam Oil and Gas Group (PVN) signed a. memorandum of understanding on cooperation in the field of oil. and gas trade, which the Saudi company stated in a release paved the. way for potential cooperation spanning the storage, supply and. trading of energy and petrochemical items.
This arrangement lays the structure for capacity. partnership across the hydrocarbon value chain, Aramco. Downstream President Mohammed Y. Al Qahtani stated in the release.
Aramco has actually been offering crude oil to Vietnam, but has yet to. make any financial investment in the nation.
(source: Reuters)