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Mike Dolan: If the war in Iran ends, the ROI-Trapdoor will creak for dollars.
The U.S. Dollar has fallen to its pre-conflict levels due to renewed optimism about a possible ending to the Iran War. If it weren't for the U.S.-focussed artificial-intelligence boom, the greenback might be a clear casualty of ?any peace deal. The dollar exchange rate was one of few prices that rose on the onset of war, aside from the oil price itself. This happened primarily 'by default. Other major economies in Europe and Asia were considered more vulnerable to the energy crisis than America, which is oil-rich. At the margins, Gulf States and other countries seeking dollar liquid assets also played a role. The move was mostly a relative performance play. The gains were modest. In the first month of the war, the DXY Index against the currencies most traded rose by as much as 3 percent. It has now given it all back. The dollar's strength has been eroded by a tentative de-escalation, and a fragile ceasefire. The greenback's strength has been weakened by a hesitant de-escalation and a shaky ceasefire. The question of whether a trapdoor will open under the dollar if war ends and Strait?of Hormuz reopens has become a key issue for the global markets. In order to figure out what's going on, there are three main concerns. First, how quickly a normalization of oil prices would bring back Federal Reserve easing to the interest rate futures stripe while eliminating summer tightening biases in Europe and Asia. The relative rate shift is arguably cancelled out by the fact that the oil and war spikes have taken two Fed rate cuts from the horizon for this year. The twin threats of energy and rates have cast a dark shadow on European growth. However, the euro would be better off if they were removed together. It's a question as to how quickly inflation and expectations can be reduced to return central banks to their pre-war levels. Kevin Warsh, Donald Trump's nominee to the Fed Chair, may bring back U.S. ease-up talk as he takes over the hot seat. The U.S. stock exchange, economy, and labor market are not conducive to rate cuts. Warsh is likely to face stiff opposition from regional Fed bosses. The hawks in Europe have been winning the battle of the last few weeks, but the economies are still weaker and will be arguing against rate increases if the oil prices already start to fall. Sell Dollars in May? Second, the Beijing summit between Trump's and China's president Xi Jinping in this month - postponed due to the war – and whether or not it will revive pressure for a stronger?yuan and ease another friction point on a list of trade disputes that is already fraught. The dollar reached its lowest level in over three years against the offshore currency renminbi as the latest attempt to reach a peace agreement in Iran played out on Wednesday. The dollar has fallen over 2% this year against the yuan, compared to a DXY loss of only 0.2%. If Trump's presumption of a bias towards a weaker currency is to have any effect, it seems that the yuan channel will be the best vehicle. The third factor is often overlooked by the bears of the dollar: the Wall Street recovery, which has been fueled by the sharply improved U.S. profits forecasts, as well as the soaring AI investment spending. If capital flows are as important to the dollar's performance as interest rate gaps or trade, then switching back to U.S. stocks can be a powerful boost. The profit-growth predictions for S&P500 companies for 2026 are now as high as 23%, up from 15% at the start of the war. The Euro Zone Stoxx equivalents also rose, but only by three percentage points. This leaves 2026 profit growth estimates 10 points behind S&P 500. The forward price/earnings ratios of U.S. stock prices remain higher than those in Europe or historical averages. However, a new price surge and momentum can cover this as they have done for many years. A dollar trapdoor may well exist. It appears that the drop below it is shallower than first thought. The opinions expressed are those of Mike Dolan a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Vigils planned across Australia for dead 5-year-old Indigenous girl
On Thursday, mourners will gather in Australia to hold vigils in memory of a five-year old Indigenous girl who was allegedly abducted and murdered. Her alleged murder shocked the country. The gatherings take place a week after authorities found the girl dead following a five day search that involved hundreds of volunteers as well as police. The death and disappearance of Kumanjayi Baby, the name given to her by Indigenous customs, has dominated headlines across the country. After the arrest of a suspect suspected of abducting and murdering the woman, violent clashes broke out in Alice Springs. 400 Indigenous people gathered to demand "payback," which is a traditional punishment that is mostly physical in Aboriginal societies. Since then, the?Alice Springs Community has been conducting "sorry-business," a period of mourning and cultural practices after a death. A vigil will be held by the girl's family in the Outback on Thursday night. Others?will also be held throughout the country to remember the girl. The organisers of the Vigil have asked participants to bring candles and wear pink, as it is the favourite colour of the girl. Kumanjayi 'Little Baby' disappeared from her home in the suburbs of Alice Springs, on the evening April 25. The search for her involved hundreds of people, who combed the dense bushland surrounding the town. It is a popular tourist destination in Australia's northern territory. Jefferson Lewis, 47, was charged with murdering her and two other crimes, which are not public for legal reasons. Reporting by Christine Chen, Sydney; Editing and proofreading by Thomas Derpinghaus
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Russell: Exports of refined fuels from Asia to the US plummet after the closure of Hormuz
The impact of the 'crisis' on the physical fuel markets has worsened. Prices for crude oil futures fluctuated in line with headlines about the conflict between the United States, and Iran. Brent contracts fell 7.8% to close at $101.27 per barrel on Wednesday, despite the fact that a sustained and full reopening of the 'Strait of Hormuz is still a long time away. The United States and Israel's February 28th attack on Iran has led to a reduction in the volume of refined products shipped throughout Asia. The Strait of Hormuz is the main energy-consuming region in the world and the destination of about 80% of the pre-war cargoes. In April, the combined export volume of these three fuel types was about 3 million barrels a day (bpd), below the average in the three months before the start the conflict. According to commodity analysts Kpler, jet fuel is the part of the barrel that has been most affected. Asia's fuel exports fell to 596,000 BPD in April from 1.54 Million BPD in the three-month period prior to the beginning of the war. The Kpler data for April was the lowest since 2017. It shows that flow levels are about one-third lower than pre-conflict. Most of Asia's jet fuel exports are destined for other Asian countries who import it, while smaller quantities go to Africa, Europe, and North America. India's jet fuel exports fell to 48,600 barrels per day (bpd) in April, from 141,000 bpd before the war, and China's to 135,000 from 308,000 bpd. According to Kpler, the United Arab Emirates shipped zero jet fuel during the month of April, compared to an average of 106,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the three months preceding the war. Singapore assessment prices reflect the shortage of jet fuel cargoes. The price of oil ended at $158.91 per barrel on Wednesday. This is up 70% from its close on February 27th, the day before Israel and the U.S. launched their aerial attack against Iran. SUPPLY SQUEEZE The price of gasoil, the building block for diesel, ended at $141.30 per barrel on Wednesday. This is up by 55% compared to the level before the war. Kpler reports that Asia's transport fuel exports dropped to a 9-year low in April of 2,22 million bpd, down from a 3.54 million average in the three month period before the start the the?Iran War. Exports from Japan fell to 32,600 BPD in April, from 148,600 BPD before the conflict. South Korea's dropped from 507,000 to?451,000 BPD, India's to 371,000 from 494,000, and China's to 22,000 from 126 300. The same is true for gasoline. Asia's exports fell to 1,59 million bpd from an average of 2,28 million bpd during the three months before the Iran War. South Korea's shipments fell to 181,300 bpd. This is down from the pre-war level of 377,000. China's shipments dropped to 47,000 from 116,000. Data shows how quickly refiners in Asia are struggling to secure enough crude oil to keep refineries running. As commercial and strategic stocks are depleted, the longer the Strait of Hormuz is closed to most vessels the greater the likelihood that crude shortages will be in Asia. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Markets focus on US-Iran Peace Deal as Gold prices remain steady
Gold prices remained largely stable?near an all-time high on Thursday as?investors were waiting for more details about a possible U.S. Iran peace deal. As of 0436 GMT spot gold was up by 0.1%, at $4,692.45 an ounce. It had risen about 3% Wednesday, to its highest level since April 27. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery rose by 0.2% to $4701. Donald Trump, the U.S. President, predicted that the war between Iran and the U.S. would end quickly as Tehran considered an?U.S. Sources said that the peace proposal would end the war, but leave unresolved the key U.S. demand?that Iran cease its nuclear programme and open the Strait of Hormuz. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that while a weaker dollar and lower oil prices provide some tailwinds to the yellow metal, it continues to be hampered by high real rates. Any meaningful peace agreement between the US, Iran and other countries would act as a tailwind to gold. Dollar hovered around a three-month low, which was hit the previous session. This made bullion cheaper for holders of other currencies. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury has eased by 0.6% this week. This lowers the opportunity cost for holding gold. Brent crude oil is?down 6% this week, as optimism grows about the?possible ending of?the Middle East war. Since the beginning of the war in late February, gold prices have dropped by more than 10%. Increased crude oil prices can cause inflation and increase the probability of higher interest rates. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, but high interest rates can weigh down on this non-yielding investment. Investors are now awaiting the monthly U.S. Employment Report?on Friday in order to determine if the U.S. economy is resilient enough to allow the Federal Reserve to maintain its monetary policy. Spot silver increased 0.3% at $77.52 an ounce. Platinum was down 0.4% to $2,054.95. Palladium rose 0.1% to $1.538.22.
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No stopping AI frenzy across Asia
Ankur Banerjee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets Japan's Nikkei returned after a holiday to join the AI rally and reach record highs. South Korea, Taiwan and other equities also reached new heights. Oil prices hovered around $100 per barrel, as the markets waited for an agreement to end the Middle East conflict. The Nikkei Index 225 (the benchmark) soared by nearly 6%. This lifted broader Asian gauges up to new highs, after strong earnings from tech companies fueled the AI momentum. The Nikkei has now risen 25% this year, but is still behind the eye-watering 75% increase in Seoul's KOSPI by 2026. This was also the best performing major stock market last year. Taiwan stocks are up 45% in 2018. The S&P 500, on the other hand, is up almost 8% in 2026. Asia has been the main area of AI growth this year. Samsung Electronics has joined Taiwan's TSMC in the trillion-dollar club. SK Hynix?is not far away. The yen held steady at 156.35 U.S. dollars in Asian hours, but traders watched their screens as sudden spikes in the last few sessions fueled speculation that Japanese authorities were intervening. Sources said that Tokyo intervened on Thursday of last week. According to?money-market data, they sold around $35 billion in order to support the yen. The market has experienced three sudden spikes since then. On Wednesday, it reached a 10-week-high of 155 per U.S. Dollar. Japan's top currency diplomat told reporters on Thursday that there are no restrictions on the frequency of its currency market interventions. It is also in constant contact with U.S. authorities. Data later in the day may shed light on Tokyo's involvement. Sources say that Tehran is considering the U.S. proposal for peace in the Middle East. The plan would end the conflict, but leave unresolved U.S. key demands that Iran suspends its nuclear program and that?the Strait of Hormuz be reopened. Since the outbreak of the war at the end February, the?critical waterway is effectively at a standstill. This has sent oil prices soaring and fueled inflation fears. While the latest news about a possible deal for peace weighed on the oil price, it remains?at around $100 per barrel, which is well above the level before the war began. As?risk sentiment improved, the dollar also fell. Global bond investors are watching the local elections in Britain on Thursday, as they fear that a poor performance by the ruling Labour Party may lead to a leadership challenge unwelcome and may renew concerns over fiscal slippage. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday. Economic events: April PMI for Germany, France and UK
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Army says two drones from Russia crashed in Latvia
The Latvian Army reported on Thursday that two drones had entered NATO member Latvia from Russia and crashed. The police told the national broadcaster LSM that one of the drones had crashed into an oil-storage facility in Rezekne. This is about 40km (25miles) away from the border with Russia. The fire was out by the time firefighters arrived. Residents?along with the Russian border received drone alerts at 4:09 am local time (0109 GMT), on Thursday. They were asked to remain indoors. The municipality has announced that all schools in Rezekne will be closed on Thursday. In late March, several stray Ukrainian drones struck Latvia and its NATO neighbors Estonia and Lithuania. One of them slammed in to a chimney inside a local?station and another crashed-landed into a frozen lake and exploded. It was believed that the Ukrainian drones had been launched in order to attack military targets in Russia. Their foreign ministers said in April that the three Baltic countries have never allowed their airspace and territories to be used by drones to attack targets in Russia.
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Dalian iron ore prices rise for the fourth consecutive day due to steady demand
Dalian iron ore futures gained for the 'fourth day in a row' on Thursday. This was due to a steady demand, as hot metal production remained high, while the Singapore iron -ore contract fell on the back of lower energy costs. As of 0303 GMT, the most traded September iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was trading 0.25% higher. It was 814 yuan (US$119.61) per metric ton. The benchmark iron ore for June on the Singapore Exchange fell by 0.12%, to $103.5 per ton. According to data compiled and a report from the Shanghai Metals Market, hot metal production is expected to peak at the end of April, boosting demand for iron ore. However, rising?prices are dampening transaction volumes. The note said that the market's momentum has been strengthened by a gradual increase in iron ore prices, coupled with a steady reduction of stocks. Singapore's iron ore price was also affected by lower energy costs, after Wednesday's?oil price slump of nearly 7%, which provided some relief to high shipping expenses. Four sources confirmed that workers on strike over a pay dispute had halted the mining of two blocks in Guinea's massive Simandou iron-ore project, operated by a consortium headed by China's Baowu Resources. According to two union representatives and a project consultant, rail and port operations are still ongoing, but blasting, loading, hauling, and dumping has stopped. Simandou is home to one of the largest untapped iron ores deposits in the world. After decades of delays, exports began in November and are expected to reach a peak annual production of 120,000,000 metric tons. Coking coal and coke also declined on the DCE, losing 2,1%?and 1,77% respectively, following broader declines in energy markets. The Shanghai Futures Exchange steel benchmarks were mixed. Hot-rolled coils and wire rod were not much changed. Rebar, however, gained 0.46%. Stainless steel fell by 1.62%. $1 = 6.8053 Yuan (Reporting and editing by Ruth Chai)
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Australia's Super Retail falls to a near three-year low due to the Mideast conflict
Super Retail Australia reported flat like for like sales in the second half of this year. It cited a drop in demand across its four brands after the 'Iran war. This sent the company's shares to a three-year-low on Thursday. The retailer reported that after the bell rang on Wednesday, like-for-like retail sales had only increased by a paltry 0.4%. Gross margins were also "modestly lower than the previous comparable period." Super Retail reported that the Middle East conflict has impacted the sales momentum of all brands, and inflation rates are also increasing. The shares of the retailer fell as much as 13.6% to A$10.08 on Thursday, reaching their lowest level since June 27th, 2023. They also had their worst intraday session since February 20th, 2025. The company has also increased its cost forecast for the year to A$66million ($47.80million) from A$60million, citing expenses relating to a newly opened distribution centre and a rollout of a payroll system. Super Retail said it had invested more than A$30m in working capital, mostly in its Supercheap Auto division, to secure inventory and reduce the impact of supply-chain disruptions due to?higher fuel prices. In the second half, Supercheap auto and sporting goods brand Rebel both posted sales growth in line with their peers of 1,6% and 1,4% respectively. BCF, an outdoor clothing retailer, saw its same-store sales decline by 3.3%. The company blamed the drop on higher fuel prices as well as supply-chain issues that discouraged outdoor activity participation. ($1 = 1.3806 Australian dollars) (Reporting by Kumar Tanishk in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
Lanxess reports muted earnings but expects a better second quarter
Lanxess reported on Thursday a'muted' quarterly core profit, which was? broadly?in line with the market expectations. However, it said that March saw a slight improvement as customers began to turn to European chemical manufacturers to avoid any supply risks.
The German specialty chemicals company stated that "a persistently weak economy, geopolitical uncertainty and last year's divestments" characterized the first quarter of 2026.
It said that cheaper raw materials and pressure from?Asia on prices in certain segments also drove down selling prices.
Since March, we've seen a slight improvement in the momentum. Due to the Middle East conflict, many Asian competitors' supply chains have been disrupted. This has caused customers to return to European suppliers like Lanxess.
The war has?roiled the global markets and driven oil prices up, while re-igniting fears over global inflation and economic growth. Lanxess announced?earnings?before?interest, taxes depreciation, and amortisation, (EBITDA), pre-exceptionals, of 94 millions euros ($110million) for the first quarter, a little above analysts' expectations of 92million?euros, according to a poll on Lanxess website.
The Cologne-based firm said it was expecting a?improvement in the second quarter and aimed for EBITDA before exceptionals of between 130 million to 150 million euros.
The company also announced its full-year forecast for 2026.
(source: Reuters)