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US sanctions on Russia could push oil over $85, Goldman Sachs says

Brent crude oil costs might rise above $85 a barrel in the shortterm if the most recent round of U.S. sanctions against Moscow cause reduce Russian oil output, Goldman Sachs stated on Sunday.

Rates could touch $90 a barrel if the decrease in Russian output accompanies a reduction in Iranian production, the bank said.

U.S. President Joe Biden imposed the broadest package of sanctions so far targeting Russia's oil and gas earnings on Friday, in an effort to provide Kyiv and Donald Trump's incoming administration take advantage of to reach a deal for peace in Ukraine.

Brent crude rates were trading at over $81 a barrel as of 0333 GMT on Monday after surging more than 3% on Friday following the broader U.S. sanctions on Russian oil.

Traders and experts stated the sanctions on Russian manufacturers and ships might force Chinese and Indian refiners to source more oil from the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas, increasing oil costs and freight costs.

The investment bank approximates that the vessels affected by the new sanctions moved 1.7 million barrels of oil daily in 2024, comprising 25% of Russia's exports, primarily of crude oil.

While the sanctions might increase oil rates, Goldman Sachs kept its base case circumstance unchanged, predicting that Brent crude rates will vary between $70 and $85 per barrel this year.

Russia can discount its oil costs to incentivize shipping by a vibrant shadow fleet to price-sensitive purchasers, analysts at Goldman Sachs stated, justifying their the same price forecast.

Russia might also improve more of its oil domestically and boost fuel exports to relieve constraints on oil shipments, they said.

The analysts noted that incoming President Donald Trump's. administration will want to avoid a relentless drop in Russian. oil supply due to its goal to lower U.S. energy prices.

Trump will be sworn in as president of the United States on. Jan. 20.

(source: Reuters)