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OPEC+ still has an Asia predicament as unrefined imports remain soft: Russell

The OPEC+ group of crude oil exporters is still planning on raising output from December, however it will be doing so versus a background of weak demand in the topimporting region of Asia.

Asia's imports of crude were 27.05 million barrels daily ( bpd) in September, up marginally from August's 26.47 million bpd, according to information put together by LSEG Oil Research.

The mostly stable outcome for September arrivals was the outcome of region heavyweights China and India cancelling each other out.

China, the world's greatest oil importer, saw arrivals of 11.43 million bpd in September, down from August's 11.61 million bpd, while India's imports were 4.94 million bpd, up from 4.71 million.

Nevertheless, the more important numbers for the oil market are the year to date figures, which show Asia's imports were 26.7 million bpd in the first 9 months of the year, down 200,000 bpd from the 26.9 million bpd for the very same period in 2023.

Asia accounts for about two-thirds of international seaborne crude imports, and it's this market that tends to drive the cost standards such as Brent futures.

Asia's lower oil imports for the first three quarters of 2024 undermine the projections for international need development made by the Company of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

OPEC's September regular monthly report forecast that global demand development in 2024 will be 2.03 million bpd, a small 80,000 bpd decrease from its previous projection.

But much of the projection depends on Asia, with OPEC expecting China's need to increase 650,000 bpd, India by 270,000 bpd and the rest of Asia by 350,000 bpd.

The volumes tracked by LSEG show that import growth in Asia is no place near satisfying the OPEC projection.

Of course, unrefined imports are just one aspect of total need development, albeit the most crucial. Others consist of domestic oil production, stock movements and net imports of refined products.

But even if these elements are favorable for general need development in Asia, they are extremely not likely to be adequate to balance out the visible weak point in the area's crude imports.

PRICE INCREASE FOR NEED?

There is some hope that Asia's unrefined imports might increase towards completion of the year, as volumes tend to respond to lower costs, as soon as changing for a lag of as much as two months to account for when freights are organized and physically provided.

Worldwide standard Brent futures trended weaker since mid-July, falling from a high because month of $87.95 a barrel on July 5 to a low of $68.68 on Sept. 10.

That 22% decrease might well suffice to stimulate restored purchasing interest, particularly by Chinese refiners, who have a track record of boosting imports when rates weaken, however cutting down when they rise.

It's also possible that imports will increase in other top purchasers such as Japan and South Korea as refiners ramp up output ahead of peak winter season demand.

However even with a recovery in the fourth quarter, it's still likely that Asia's import growth in 2024 will fall short of expectations.

This means that OPEC+, which brings together OPEC and allies consisting of Russia, will be increasing production at a time when demand development is still uncertain.

The group held an online joint ministerial tracking committee meeting on Wednesday, satisfying market expectations for no change in policy.

This puts OPEC+ on track to alleviate its output cuts by 180,000 bpd from December, the group having actually delayed its earlier plan to raise production from October onwards.

Naturally, OPEC+ keeps the choice to postpone any boost to production further, however doing so threats delivering a lot more market share to producers outside the group, such as those in both North and South America.

In addition to unpredictability over what OPEC+ will eventually choose, the crude market is facing the risks of a larger dispute in the Middle East, including the possibility that Israel might target Iran's oil infrastructure in retaliation for Tehran's missile barrage today.

The stress have resulted in a premium being as soon as again priced into crude, with Brent increasing to a one-month of $76.14. throughout Wednesday's trade.

This premium is likely to continue up until there is some. de-escalation in the Middle East, and if that does happen, then. it's most likely the marketplace will when again concentrate on the broader. demand concerns.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist. .

(source: Reuters)