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Indonesia concludes search for victims after boarding school collapse. 61 dead
Indonesian rescuers finished their search for victims under the rubble in East Java province on Tuesday after recovering more than 60 corpses, according to disaster authorities. Last week, the small town Sidoarjo was engulfed in grief and confusion after the Al Khoziny School collapsed on hundreds of people - mostly teenagers - while they were praying. Most escaped. In a statement the disaster mitigation agency announced that all 61 bodies in the building had been located, along with seven body parts police are trying identify. The search was halted for the worst disaster of the year, which it called. Mohammad Syafii is the chief of the Search and Rescue Agency. After authorities removed the debris, he said, "Operations due the collapsed structure at the Al Khoziny School... are now officially closed." Budi Irawan is the deputy chief of the agency. The rescuers used cranes and excavators to lift huge chunks of concrete. As they dug through the tunnels, rescuers shouted names of those presumed still alive. Al Khoziny, also known as a pesantren in Arabic, is one of over 42,000 schools of this type across the country. Only 50 have building permits, according to the Public Works Ministry. It was impossible to determine if Al Khoziny possessed a permit or contact school authorities. Media reported that Sidoarjo Chief Subandi said last week the school allegedly did not have a permit. (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez; Stanley Widianto)
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Morning bid Europe-Deepening darkness in Paris
Rae Wee gives us a look at what the European and global markets will be like tomorrow. France is once again in a deep political crisis, with five different prime ministers having been in office in just 21 months. This is not good news for investors looking to invest in Paris. The markets will probably face another day of turmoil on Tuesday following the shock resignation of Prime Minister Sebastien lecornu. This came only hours after Lecornu announced his cabinet, making this the shortest-lived French government in modern history. Lecornu has been asked by French President Emmanuel Macron to have last-ditch discussions with other political parties in order to find a way out of this crisis. However, the damage is already done. The French OAT futures fell slightly during the Asian session, after bonds plunged on Monday. Attention will be focused on the Paris CAC 40 when the markets open in the afternoon. BCA Research, a research firm, has said that French bonds are uninvestable. Rating agencies have issued new warnings regarding France's sovereign debt score. France has the highest budget deficit within the Eurozone, almost twice the European Union preferred limit of 3%. Since Macron's reelection in 2020, the nation's finances have been vulnerable and political instability has increased, due to the lack of a majority party or group in parliament. The Nikkei soared to yet another record on Tuesday in Japan. Meanwhile, the yen and Japanese government bonds (JGBs) remained weak. Investors were bracing for an increase in spending, as well as a looser monetary policy, under Sanae Taichi, who will be the next premier of the country. Takaichi has been favored by the majority of the ruling coalition, which holds the most seats in the parliament. As usual, the slide in the Japanese yen attracted the attention of the authorities. Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato stated on Tuesday that his government would be on guard for volatile currency movements. The auction of 30-year JGBs on Tuesday was closely watched and seen as a test to see if investors were ready for the expected expansion in Japan's spending and monetary policy. This eased concerns that investors would be reluctant to buy long-dated bonds due to the uncertainty of fiscal policy. JGBs recovered some of their losses after the auction, and yields fell. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Tuesday. French Politics Bowman, Bostic and Kashkari, Fed officials, speak
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Oil extends gains on smaller-than-expected OPEC+ output hike
Oil prices extended gains on Tuesday as a smaller-than-expected November output hike by OPEC+ helped to ease some fears of a growing supply glut. Brent crude futures rose 23 cents or 0.35% to $65.70 per barrel at 0356 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude climbed 21 cents or 0.34% to $61.90. The previous session saw both contracts settle more than 1% above the previous one after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other smaller producers - also known as OPEC+ – decided to increase their collective oil production from November by 137,000 barrels a day. Analysts at ING said that this move contrasted with market expectations of a more aggressive reintroduction. It was a sign the group is still cautious about increasing their production share on the global oil markets, despite predictions of a surplus of supply in the fourth and next years. Anh Pham is a senior analyst with LSEG. She said that Brent had dropped by $5 per barrel in the previous week due to expectations for a bigger supply boost. This mild rebound therefore seems reasonable. He added, "For the moment, the market appears to be able to accommodate the additional volume and we have not yet seen a change into contango on the front curve." OPEC+ increased its oil production targets by over 2.7 million bpd in this year. This is equivalent to around 2.5% of the global demand. The geopolitical situation has kept prices in check, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is affecting energy assets and creating an uncertainty about Russian crude oil supply. Two industry sources reported on Monday that the Russian Kirishi oil refining plant halted CDU-6's most productive distillation after a drone attack on October 4 and a subsequent fire. The unit is expected to recover in about a month. Despite the increase in oil production by both OPEC+ members and non-OPEC+ members, oil prices are still under pressure. Analysts said that any slowdown in the demand caused by weak economic growth due to U.S. tariffs would likely exacerbate this surplus.
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Europa Oil & Gas Eyes 2026 Drilling with PSC Extension in Equatorial Guinea
Europa Oil & Gas has received a one-year extension from the Minister of Hydrocarbons and Mining Development for Equatorial Guinea for the initial two-year period of the EG-08 production sharing contract (PSC), with the plans for drilling of the Barracuda prospect set for 2026.Europa Oil & Gas holds a 42.9% equity interest in Antler Global, which has an 80% working interest in the EG-08 PSC. The remaining 20% is held by GEPetrol, the national oil and gas company of Equatorial Guinea, representing the state’s interest.Formalities to finalize the extension are ongoing and expected to be completed in the coming days. As a result, the first sub-period of Phase 1 of the PSC will now expire on October 4, 2026.The EG-08 block contains 2.196 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas (Pmean), with the primary prospect Barracuda estimated at 878 billion cubic feet (BCF) (Pmean).“I am pleased to have secured the Minister’s approval for this extension which will provide plenty of time to finalize the farm out process for EG-08, where we continue to make good progress. Concurrently, the technical team are working on detailed engineering plans for drilling the Barracuda prospect, which we hope to spud in 2026,” said William Holland, Chief Executive Officer of Europa.Block EG-08, located offshore in the Douala Basin of Equatorial Guinea, is held by Antler Global Ltd, a company set up to acquire the EG-08 block. The PSC became effective in October 2023, with Antler holding an 80% working interest and GEPetrol holding the remaining 20%.The EG-08 block covers 731 square kilometers and has three high-graded prospects assessed to have similar AVO characteristics to the Alen and Aseng fields and other discoveries in Chevron’s Blocks O and I to the south. The prospects are covered with 3D seismic data and lie in about 80 meters of water, with reservoir targets at around 2,800 meters, drillable with a jack-up rig.The three prospects have been defined using standard Amplitude Variation with Offset (AVO) techniques. Since 2005, nine exploration wells have been drilled in this area using AVO techniques, eight of which were discoveries. Volumes across the prospects are estimated at mean prospective resources of 2.116 TCFE (gas and condensate).
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Fed rate cuts and safe-haven demand drive gold to all-time high
Gold reached a new record on Tuesday, as there was no sign of an end to the impasse that led to the government shutdown between the two chambers of the U.S. Congress. Near-certainty bets about a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in this month also provided support. Gold spot was up 0.1% to $3,965.39 an ounce at 0308 GMT after reaching a session high of $3977.19 earlier. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery gained 0.3%, to $3988.10. Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA, said: "The (chances) of October and December cuts remain above 80%. This is actually supporting the gold price and this government shutdown too given that there's still no resolution reached between the two U.S. Congress sides." Jeff Schmid, Kansas City Fed Bank president, has indicated that he does not intend to further cut interest rates. He said the Fed should focus on the dangers of high inflation and not just apparent weakness in job markets. According to CME FedWatch, markets are still pricing additional 25 basis point rate cuts for both October and December, with probabilities 95% and 83% respectively. Gold that does not yield is a good investment in low-interest rate environments and economic uncertainty. The gold price has increased by 51% this year, mainly due to central bank purchases and the demand for Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) backed by gold. A weaker dollar also helped. Retail investors are increasingly interested in hedging their positions amid increasing trade and geopolitical tensions. Goldman Sachs increased its December 2026 forecast for gold to $4.900 per ounce, up from $4.300, on Monday. It cited strong Western exchange traded fund (ETF), and central bank purchases. Silver spot fell by 0.1% at $48.49 an ounce. Platinum dropped 0.4% to $1.619.62, and palladium increased 0.1% to 1,325.71. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu and Sonia Cheema)
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China's central banks extends gold purchases for the 11th month
Official data released by the People's Bank of China on Tuesday showed that China's central banks added gold to their reserves for the 11th consecutive month. China's gold reserves increased to 74.06 millions fine troy ounces by the end September, from 74.02million ounces in August. The PBOC reported that the gold reserves of the country were valued at an estimated $283.29 Billion at the end last month. This is up from $253.84 Billion at the end August. Ross Norman, an independent analyst, said that a strong figure would confirm the notion that China is eager to dedollarize and accelerate their actions in this space. "Further purchase, even modest purchases, will be viewed domestically as positive in a price sensitive market. This may reduce the large discounts offered by Loco Shanghai. "It will give ETF investors and institutions the confidence that gold prices will continue to rise." The gold price, which is traditionally seen as a safe haven from economic and political uncertainty, has reached multiple records so far this season due to uncertainty over U.S. Tariffs, geopolitical conflict, the expectation of interest rate reductions, a weaker dollar, and central bank purchases. On Monday, gold prices rose above $3900 per ounce. The PBOC halted their 18-month gold buying spree in May 2024. The central bank began buying gold again in November 2024. The World Gold Council (WGC), in a survey, found that central banks expect their gold reserves as a percentage of their total reserves to rise over the next five year period. However, they anticipate their dollar reserves will be lower. Reporting by Zhang Yan and Qiaoyi Li in Bengaluru, as well as Anushree Mukerjee and Ishaan Aroo from Bengaluru. Editing by Jacqueline Wong, Christian Schmollinger and Jacqueline Wong.
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Experts urge urgent action as dengue cases spread across Bangladesh
Health experts in Bangladesh have warned that the dengue epidemic is rapidly worsening, with the number of infections and deaths increasing across the nation. They also warn the disease will spiral out of control if coordinated and urgent mosquito control measures are not implemented. As of October 6, the Directorate General of Health Services reported 50,689 cases of dengue and 215 deaths in the United States. Professor Kabirul bashar, an entomologist from Jahangirnagar University said that the outbreak of mosquito-borne diseases -- already severe in September -- could become "alarming this month" due to climate changes and erratic rain, as well extended holidays and weak action by local governments which disrupted antimosquito campaigns. Bashar warned that the situation would spiral out of control if we did not act. Climate change, he said, has prolonged the mosquito breeding season. Delays in fogging and cleaning drives have also exacerbated the problem. Dengue, which was once confined to major cities, is now spreading into smaller towns and rural regions, causing fears that the disease could become endemic throughout the country. Health officials are concerned that the crisis is likely to worsen in the next few weeks as hospitals continue to be overburdened and infections continue to rise. A rise in chikungunya cases, which is also transmitted by mosquitoes, has exacerbated the crisis. Although chikungunya rarely causes death, both adults and children can suffer from severe joint pains and weakness. The worst dengue year in Bangladesh was 2023. This is when 1,705 people died and more than 321,000 were infected. Experts warn the country may face a new cycle of destruction if preventive measures aren't taken. (Reporting and editing by Raju Gopikrishnan; Ruma Paul)
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Goldman increases its December 2026 gold forecast to $4.900/oz
Goldman Sachs increased on Monday its December 2020 gold price forecast from $4,300 to $4,900, citing a strong Western ETF inflow and possible central bank purchases. Goldman stated that "we see the risks of our upgraded gold forecast as still being skewed on net to the upside, because private sector divergence into the relatively tiny gold market could boost ETF holdings beyond our rates-implied estimation," Goldman said. As of 1300 GMT on Tuesday morning, spot gold was trading at around $3960 per ounce after reaching a new high of $3977.19 earlier that day. Gold prices have risen 51% this year, thanks to central bank purchases, an increase in demand for gold-backed ETFs and a weaker US dollar. Retail investors are also becoming more interested as they seek a hedge against increasing trade and geopolitical tensions. Goldman estimates that central bank purchases will average 80 tons in 2025, and 70 tons by 2026. They say emerging market central banks will continue to diversify their gold reserves structurally. Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect Western ETF holdings to increase as the U.S. Federal Reserve lowers the funds rate 100 basis points between now and mid-2026. "In contrast to this, the more noisy speculative positions have remained largely stable." After the large increase in September, the level Western ETF holdings have now fully caught-up with our U.S. rate-implied estimation, suggesting that the recent ETF strength was not an overshoot," the report said. Reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru, Editing by Tom Hogue & Muralikumar Anantharaman
MORNING BID AMERICAS-Rates angst, China cut and charge card offer
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and worldwide markets from Mike Dolan Wall St returns from its vacation to a mix of rate of interest cut doubts, retailer updates and the biggest U.S. corporate deal of the year - while China's newest monetary easing was brushed off by markets overseas.
With the Federal Reserve launching minutes of its January policy meeting on Wednesday, the rates market has actually been dragged kicking and yelling back more detailed to where the Fed had initially indicated at the end of last year.
After sparky brand-new year customer and manufacturer rate readings last week, 2 and 10-year Treasury yields strike their greatest for 2024 on Friday and Fed futures rates now has bit more than 90 basis points of cuts in the mix for the year.
That's now within series of the 75bps of 2024 cuts suggested by Fed policymakers in December.
Don't battle the Fed?
The inflation background will not have been helped by the most current jump in oil rates, which struck their greatest in more than 3 months on Tuesday and crude is now back favorable year-on-year for the first time because October.
Iran-aligned Houthis continued attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait, with a minimum of four more vessels hit by drone and rocket strikes since Friday. Among them, Lebanese-managed and british-registered Rubymar freight vessel in the Gulf of Aden, remained in danger of sinking, according to Houthis-- raising stakes in their project to hit shipping in uniformity with Palestinians in Gaza.
Canada launches its January inflation numbers into that scenario later too.
The cloudier inflation image likewise comes together with poor U.S. industrial and retail soundings for last month. WalMart and Home Depot results in the future Tuesday may offer a truth look at the previous and to what level freezing January weather condition distorted sales data.
However bracing for 2 and 20-year debt auctions on Wednesday, Treasury yields slipped back a touch from the year's highs ahead of Tuesday's open - with China's newest financial easing welcoming the new week.
China's central bank shocked numerous with the size of the 25bp cut to home loan recommendations rates earlier, even vulnerable markets stayed somewhat underwhelmed by the authorities' efforts to stimulate credit and revive the ailing property market.
The blue-chip CSI300 index notched a sixth Directly everyday gain - broken by the lunar new year holiday - its bear down Tuesday was a paltry 0.2%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng criteria did a little better and rose 0.6%.
In spite of the rate cut, the overseas yuan valued somewhat - though it was laced as soon as again with suspicion of state-back purchasing. The dollar was more combined somewhere else - a touch higher on the yen however lower on the euro.
On the other hand, China optimists cling to more positive financing and tourism data that reveal signs of domestic demand re-emerging.
A possible crackdown in the monetary sector will keep markets on edge. China's leading financial watchdogs vowed to guarantee the sector sticks to 'Communist Party values' and serves the economy while avoiding extreme and reckless risks, the celebration's official paper said on Tuesday.
Back on Wall St, S&P 500 futures were in the red ahead of Tuesday open but the long-weekend also brought the biggest corporate merger of the year.
Warren Buffett-backed U.S. consumer bank Capital One plans to acquire U.S. credit card provider Discover Financial Providers in an all-stock deal valued at $35.3 billion to develop a worldwide payments giant.
The offer, which is anticipated to get extreme antitrust examination, would form the sixth-largest U.S. bank by possessions and a. credit card leviathan that would compete with competitors JPMorgan. Chase and Citigroup.
Discover Financial's share rate was up more than 10%. premarket.
The other buzz of the coming week will be Nvidia's. hotly-awaited outcomes on Wednesday-- as the synthetic. intelligence chip boom sees financiers scramble for all things. AI-related.
Nvidia shares, up about 50% this year, could swing by about. 11% in either instructions, according to information from choices. analytics service ORATS. That's the biggest anticipated move. choices traders have priced in ahead of Nvidia's incomes over. the last three years and well above the stock's real average. earnings move of 6.7% over that duration, ORATS reckoned.
With Nvidia's market capitalization at $1.8 trillion, a relocation. of that size would make for a potential swing in market price of. about $200 billion. That would be higher than the market. capitalization of chipmaker Intel and bigger than the. respective market price of about 90% of S&P 500 constituents.
In Europe, Barclays shares surged 7% as the British. bank laid out a three-year plan to revive its flagging stock. cost, including axing 2 billion pounds of costs, returning 10. billion pounds ($ 12.6 billion) to shareholders and buying. its high-returning UK bank.
Key diary items that may provide direction to U.S. markets later. on Tuesday:. * Canada Jan inflation, United States Jan leading indications, Philadelphia. Fed's Feb service sector business study. * U.S. corp profits: Walmart, Home Depot, Palo Alto Networks,. Allegion, Medtronic, Public Storage, Caesars Home Entertainment,. Celanese, International Flavors and Fragrances, Realty Income,. CoStar, Keysight Tech, Chesapeake Energy, Diamondback Energy,. CentrePoint Energy, Evonix. * U.S. Treasury offers 3-, 6-, 12-month costs
(source: Reuters)