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The ethylene boom in China could cause more problems for US and European chemical companies

The ethylene boom in China could cause more problems for US and European chemical companies

China's rapid production ramp-up in ethylene – a component crucial for plastics and packaging, as well as construction – is expected to lower global prices, and put pressure on U.S., and European, chemical manufacturers who are already struggling with an oversupply of chemicals and weak demand.

The domestic demand in China is also waning, as the property market continues to deteriorate amid an economic slowdown. Analysts said that this could result in a flood of Chinese ethylene on global markets, which would delay a price recovery.

Vertical Research Partners estimates that the world's second largest economy has ethylene production capacity of more than 54 Mtpa. By 2030, this capacity is expected to increase by 9%, surpassing 75 Mtpa.

Jim Fitterling, Dow CEO, said that China was "under pressure" to increase its capacity by 2030 at a Morgan Stanley Conference this month.

As prices have fallen, profits for U.S. producers such as Dow, Celanese, and LyondellBasell are eroding.

The European chemical industry is increasingly dependent on imports, due to high production costs and ageing plants.

Garrie Li, of S&P Global Commodity Insights, says that China's refusal to cancel major projects during the recession has prolonged the slump.

Demand growth will outpace capacity growth.

Peter Vanacker, CEO of LyondellBasell, said that the rapid growth in China's petrochemical industry raises concern about overproduction on the global market.

China's property market, which is a major consumer of petrochemicals, continues to be weak. Investment fell by 12% during the first seven-month period of 2025.

Seth Goldstein, Morningstar analyst, said that if China's demand falls short of its capacity expansion then it is likely to export. This would put pressure on European production and North American capacities.

S&P data revealed that China's exports of polypropylene jumped from 1.3 to 2.4 millions tonnes between 2023 and 2024. They could also reach 3.2-3.4 by 2026.

Cefic (the European Chemical Industry Council) said that China's low cost model has made it the EU27’s largest chemical supplier. Shipments worth more than 19 billion euros ($19.97billion) were shipped in the first half 2025.

Sylvie Lemoine, Cefic's Sylvie said that the risk of market flood is "real".

(source: Reuters)