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Oil edges higher after biggest annual loss since 2020

Oil edges higher after biggest annual loss since 2020
Oil edges higher after biggest annual loss since 2020

Oil prices rose marginally on the first trading day in 2026, after registering their largest annual loss since 2010. This was due to Ukrainian drones targeting Russian oil facilities and a U.S. trade blockade that impacted Venezuelan exports.

Brent crude futures rose 22 cents Friday to $61.07 per barrel at 0833 GMT, while U.S. West Texas intermediate crude rose 22cents to $57.64.

On New Year's Day, Russia and Ukraine exchanged accusations of attacks against civilians despite the talks that were overseen by U.S. president Donald Trump. The talks are meant to bring an end to a nearly four-year war.

Kyiv has intensified its strikes on Russian energy infrastructure over the past few months in an effort to cut off Moscow’s funding sources for its military campaign?in Ukraine.

The Trump administration continued its efforts to increase pressure against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro with the imposition of Wednesday sanctions on four companies and associated oil tankers that it claimed were operating in Venezuela’s oil sector.

Flights were halted on Thursday at Aden airport, escalating a conflict between OPEC producers Saudi Arabia & the United Arab Emirates over Yemen. The virtual meeting?between OPEC+, the group that includes the Organization?of Petroleum Exporting countries and its allies was held on January 4th.

Sparta Commodities analyst June Goh said that traders expect OPEC+ will continue to pause its output increase in the first quarter.

She said that 2026 would be a crucial year for assessing OPEC+'s decisions to balance supply. China, she added, would continue building crude stocks in the first half of the year, which will provide a floor for oil price.

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium that delivers oil to?Kazakhstan has announced this week that it has suspended oil exports at its Black Sea terminal due to bad weather.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, "The CPC's export terminal disruptions have a negative impact on Kazakh exports and production."

2025 LOSSES

Brent and WTI benchmarks experienced annual losses of almost 20% in 2025. This was the highest since 2020. Geopolitical risk outweighed concerns about oversupply. Brent lost money for the third consecutive year, which is the longest streak in history.

Suvro Sarkar, DBS's energy analyst, said: "As it stands, we are expecting (Brent) crude oil prices to be fairly dull this year, with a range of $60-65 per barrel."

The first quarter of the year will be weak from a fundamental standpoint. The oil market is not likely to be affected by a renewed geopolitical tension. It is just a temporary blip.

Priyanka sachdeva, an analyst at Phillip Nova, said that the lack of price movement reflected a struggle in which short-term geopolitical risk was battling with longer-term fundamentals that pointed to oversupply. In a note to clients, she said that WTI prices were skewed toward a range between $55 and $65 per barrel during the first quarter. (Reporting and editing by Stephanie Kelly, Florence Tan)

(source: Reuters)