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Asia's jet fuel imports from India to strike multi-year highs in November

Asia's imports of jet fuel from India are set to strike multiyear highs in November ahead of peak winter season need after refinery failures and lower exports from China crimped products, according to market sources and shiptracking data.

Indian refiners have been processing big volumes of low-cost Russian crude since the start of the Ukraine war in 2022 and have the flexibility of improving fuel exports to either Europe or Asia depending on arbitrage economics.

Indian air travel fuel getting here in hubs including Singapore, Hong Kong and Malaysia will probably hit around 2.7 million barrels in November, up at least 40% from October, shiptracking data from LSEG, Kpler and Vortexa revealed, the highest given that Kpler started compiling the information in 2017.

More than half the jetfuel was bound for Singapore, according to Vortexa data.

The jump in materials from India will contribute to an anticipated rebound in output within Asia as refineries resume operations after maintenance. That could weigh on spot premiums as purchasers will require some time to absorb the cargoes, trade sources said.

India's jet fuel pivot to Asia is probably the outcome of the closure of the arbitrage window to Europe, said Vortexa's head of APAC analysis, Serena Huang.

Seasonal kerosene stockpiling in Japan combined with refinery interruptions (in Malaysia) over the past months have most likely tightened up materials in Asia, presenting opportunities for more Asian jet/kero supplies to stay within the region instead of heading to the West, she added.

Malaysia's jet fuel exports were at multi-year lows of 150,000 barrels so far in November, Vortexa data revealed, while Japan's imports of jet fuel and kerosene are anticipated to hit nine-month high at 1.34 million barrels.

Supply tightness was exacerbated by traders selling more Asian freights to the U.S. west coast in the middle of lucrative arbitrage revenues given lower production there from refinery interruptions, stated another trader who is sending out at least 450,000 barrels of fuel to the U.S in November.

Weaker-than-expected air travel fuel demand and high production caused a ready supply of India barrels, stated LSEG Oil Research study senior expert Charles Ong, adding that September intake levels in India were still 16% below pre-pandemic levels.

Whether India's jet fuel deliveries to Asia remain high in December will depend on European demand and the effect on Chinese exports from lower tax refunds working next month, a Singapore-based trade source stated.

China's jet fuel exports dropped to a 10-month low of 1.45 million metric loads (11.4 million barrels) in October, customizeds data showed, while trade sources estimated comparable volumes for November.

Previously, Chinese oil majors ramped up gas exports at the cost of jet fuel for higher profits, a China-based trade source said, while essential fuel supplier China Aviation Oil had released rare tenders to buy November area cargoes due to tight export quota schedule.

(source: Reuters)