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After Gulf Shipping Attacks, oil prices and shares plummet
Attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf have shattered the prospects for an imminent deescalation of the Middle East conflict. Oil prices briefly rose above $100 per barrel, causing inflation fears to rise. The reaction shows 'how quickly bets placed on a quick end to the conflict, which gathered momentum earlier this week are being unraveled. The contradictory messages of U.S. president Donald Trump has left traders fearful that they will be caught off guard, causing them to stay away from the markets or find refuge in safe havens. Investors were not satisfied with the International Energy Agency’s announcement on Wednesday that it would release 400 million barrels from its oil reserves. This was the largest move of its kind in its history. Brent crude futures rose as high as 10.4%, to $101.59 per barrel, before retracing gains as concerns remained over whether the release of reserves would be enough to cushion the blow from the Middle East shock. U.S. Crude Futures traded last at $91,11, up 4.4%. "Even though the reserves may be large, it is not known how quickly they will?be delivered to the markets. Joel Hancock is an energy analyst with Natixis CIB. He said that a market balanced by strategic stock releases would be less efficient logistically. The STOXX 600 - the pan-European equity index – fell 0.4%. Futures for the S&P500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq100 in the U.S. both fell by 0.5%. The MSCI All-World Index fell by 0.3%. The odds on Polymarket, a prediction market platform, indicated a?25% probability of a truce between the U.S.A. and Iran before March 31. This is down from 45% earlier in the week. Attacks on Oil Shipments Continue Iraqi officials reported that two fuel tanks were hit by Iranian boats laden with explosives in Iraqi waters early Thursday morning. An Iraqi official also told state media the oil ports had "completely stopped operations." Bloomberg News reported Oman had evacuated its main oil export terminal, Mina Al Fahal, as a precautionary move. Rodrigo Catril is a senior FX Strategist at NAB. He said, "The market continues to be very concerned about what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz and the information we have received over the past 24 hours does not make for a good read." It reemphasizes that we should be concerned about this. And the risk is that oil prices will go up from here, rather than come down. Iran increased its attacks against merchant ships in Strait of Hormuz. Since the start of the fighting, at least 16 ships have been hit in this region. Iran has warned that oil will soon be priced at $200 per barrel. Inflation Risks The?U.S. consumer price index rose 0.3% in February, according to data released on Wednesday. This is above the 0.2% increase that was forecasted for January. The consumer price index increased 0.3% in February, which was above the 0.2% rise seen in January. However, the report was not considered particularly relevant, given that inflation has been fueled by the Iran War. Globally, bond yields rose as the threat of rising inflation outweighed concerns about safe havens. On Thursday, yields on 10-year Treasury bills rose by 2.4 basis points at 4.2296% after a 7-bps jump overnight. Fed funds futures continued to fall as investors worried that higher inflation could make it difficult for the Federal Reserve ease policy. Markets bet that the Fed will only cut rates by one more time this year. The markets have speculated that the next rate increase from the European Central Bank may come as soon as June. Investors on edge sought out the dollar's liquidity, while shunning currencies of countries which are net energy consumers. This includes Japan and most of Europe. The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1558. The dollar gained 158.68 Japanese yen. (Reporting and editing by Stella Qiu, Niket Nishant, Edwina Gibbs and Shri Navaratnam; Susan Fenton, Keith Weir, Edwina Gibson and Keith Weir).
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Poland claims that the cyber attack on a nuclear centre foiled by Poland may have been from Iran
The government of Poland announced on Thursday that it had foiled a cyberattack against its nuclear research centre. It is now examining possible signs that Iran may be responsible. Poland claims it has been the victim of many cyberattacks ever since Russia invaded Ukraine on a large scale in 2022. Moscow has denied any involvement. Krzysztof GAWKOWSKI, Minister of Digital Affairs at TVN24+, said that the attack against Poland's National Center for Nuclear Research had taken place "in recent days". "The attack was not on a large scale, but it was an attempt at breaking through security that was stopped. Gawkowski added that "appropriate services" were already in place and the centre was safe. The first thing that he did was to identify the entry points, which he called "vectors". "The places where (the centre was attacked) are connected to Iran," he stated. When the final information is available and the services have checked it, we'll verify it. But there are many signs that it took place in Iran. The Iranian Embassy in Warsaw has not responded to an email request for comment. The centre conducts research in?nuclear power,?subatomic science and related fields. Poland does not have nuclear weapons, but is building its nuclear power plant. On February 28, the U.S., Israel and other countries launched coordinated airstrikes on Iran. The Supreme Leader of Iran was killed in these strikes: Ayatollah Khamenei. Tehran responded by striking?Israel and Gulf States?hosting U.S. Military installations, effectively stopping?oil-and-gas shipments through Strait of Hormuz – a conduit that carries roughly a 5th of the world’s LNG and petroleum.
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German economy recovery will only be slightly slowed by the Iran war, according to economists
Three institutes said on Thursday that Germany's economy will only slow a little this year, as long as the energy prices pushed up by?the Iran War?reduce in the months to come. According to its December forecast, the Ifo Institute expects an economic growth of 0.8% in this year. This is based on the assumption that oil prices and gas will only remain high in the short-term. It expects German economic growth to accelerate to 1.2% in next year. The biggest economy in Europe expanded for the first time in three year in 2025, increasing by 0.2% as consumer confidence improved. This was aided by an increase in government spending. RESTORATION AFTER SHOCK Timo Wollmershaeuser is Ifo's head of forecasts. He said that despite the energy price shock the recovery in Germany will likely continue this year. He cited increased government spending on infrastructure and carbon neutrality as stimulants for demand. Ifo predicted that the forecast for 2026 would have been 1.0% higher without the U.S./Israeli war against Iran. The institute stated that if gas and oil prices continue to rise, Germany's GDP will only grow by 0.6% in 2026, as the inflation rate is expected to reach a peak of just below 3%. This effect would continue into 2027 with a growth rate of only 0.8%. Short-term rise in commodity prices IfW institute has lowered their December 2026 forecast by 0.2%, to 0.8%. They assume that commodity prices are likely to remain high for only a few months. IfW has raised its growth forecast for the next year from 1.3% to 1.4%. The RWI Institute revised its forecasts for this year down by 0.1 percentage points, to 0.9%. It also lowered its outlook for 2027 by?0.2 percentage points, to 1.2%. Torsten Schmidt, RWI's forecasting chief, said that the Iran war "demonstrates how vulnerable Germany remains due to its energy dependence." All three institutions expect inflation to rise by at least 2.5% in this year, before it eases again in 2027. (Reporting and editing by Thomas Seythal, Susan Fenton, and Miranda Murray)
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Norsk Hydro announces Qatalum Aluminium Smelter will stop curtailment and operate at 60%
Norsk Hydro announced on Thursday that its 'Qatalum' aluminium smelter, located in Qatar, would halt the curtailment begun last week. Production will be maintained at around 60% of capacity with reduced natural gas supplies. Qatalum - which has an annual smelting capability of 648,000 tons - began a controlled shut down on March 3, after it was informed that the gas supply would be cut off. QatarEnergy, a state-owned company, announced the day before that it would halt?LNG output after Iranian drones attacked its facilities. Hydro released a statement saying that Qatalum had decided to stop further curtailment after receiving confirmation from its?gas supplier. The benchmark three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange jumped as much as 2,6% on Thursday to $3,546.50 per ton, its highest level in nearly four years. Middle East smelters - which supply around 9% of the global aluminium - are unable to ship due to the closure of Strait of Hormuz. Norwegian company Hydro?owns 50% of the Qatalum Joint Venture alongside Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing Co.?which is owned by QatarEnergy. "The curtailment was carried out in an?safe and controlled manner. This, along with the continued operation at around 60%, improves the conditions for a possible restart. Hydro has not revealed the exact date of when the restart will begin. Hydro is working hard to minimize the effects of the shipping disruptions and curtailment. "The safety of Qatalum's employees is our highest priority", it said. Reporting by Tom Daly Editing and proofreading by Tomasz Janowowski
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BMW prepares for another year of tariffs and China struggles
BMW warns that it will not see any relief from the ongoing tariff costs in China and intense competition. The company warned on Thursday about a modest decline in its pre-tax earnings in 2026 and a stagnation of deliveries. BMW's rivals Volkswagen, Mercedes and Audi also reported a weaker 2025 due to trade barriers and falling China sales. They also made mistakes with electrification as the market demand for electric vehicles diverged in key markets. The outbreak of war in the Middle East has roiled nerves, fueling supply chain concerns and driving up fuel prices. It also threatens?demand, which is a major market for premium brands like BMW and Rolls-Royce. Risks ahead in an "unstable" world BMW CEO Oliver Zipse stated that the company was sticking to its strategy of overhauling its model line-up and cutting costs. However, he warned about future uncertainty. "Our world remains unstable and many risks will continue in the current year," he stated after the 'company reported a 6.7% drop in '2025 pre-tax profits. At 0916 GMT, shares of the most valuable automaker in Germany were trading at 1.3% less. Walter Mertl, CFO of Washington, hopes that new trade agreements will be reached between Washington and its trading partners, including the European Union (EU), Mexico, and Canada, in the second half. The company expects that higher tariffs in 2026 will result in a?1.25 percentage point blow to its core automotive margin, which is expected to range between 4 and 6%. This is a 5.3% increase from?2025, and a 6.3% increase from 2024. BMW's presence in the United States, where its largest plant is located in Spartanburg in South Carolina, has helped to cushion the impact of U.S. Tariffs, but the EU also imposes tariffs on the fully electric Mini made in China. In 2025, the group's earnings before tax fell to 10.2 billion euro ($11.78 billion). This is expected to fall further by 5% to 9.9% in 2026. Delivery levels will remain at the same level as 2025. This is despite a 12.5% drop in sales on China's key market. In 2026 "China could achieve last year's levels," said?Mertl. The company sees potential for growth in the U.S., Europe and Asia. It is also ramping up its redesigned 'Neue Klassen' range of cars, with 40 planned launches this year and next.
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Rosatom, a Russian company, says it will remain in Iran despite the war
Alexei Likhachev, the head of Rosatom's nuclear division, said that the company will remain in Iran despite the conflict in the Middle East. It is also committed to the agreement to build two more units at the Bushehr nuclear power plant. After the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, Rosatom evacuated its staff, and suspended construction on the new units. Likhachev stated that around 450 Rosatom employees remain on the site after 150 returned via Armenia to Russia this week. "The construction and completion of the?second and?third units remain among the priorities for the?corporation. This is not the right time to go. "What is happening in the Middle East represents only a small part of a larger global mosaic", Likhachev told Rosatom. Likhachev stated on Monday that the situation around Bushehr was still tense, but there were no strikes at the Bushehr plant or construction site. The agreement allows for up to eight units of nuclear power, including four at Bushehr. Iran announced last autumn that it had signed a $25 billion deal with Rosatom for the construction of four nuclear power plants with a?capacity of 5 gigawatts?at a different site in the country's south-east. Both parties signed a memo on the development of small nuclear power plants within Iran. (Reporting by Anastasia Lyrchikova. Mark Trevelyan edited the story.
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Sources: China extends iron ore export ban to BHP's new product
China has increased its ban on BHP iron ore a second time in two weeks. This is a result of a contract dispute that's been ongoing for months with the world's third-largest supplier. Three sources familiar with the matter said that China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG), the state-run buyer of iron ore, told domestic steel mills on Thursday they were prohibited from taking Newman fines – a popular BHP type of?iron stored in ports – as of next week. According to two sources, however, customers will still be able to receive their cargos in 'the next five days'. Due to the sensitive nature of the issue, all sources asked for anonymity. Beijing has gradually tightened restrictions on local steel mills, traders and steelmakers buying BHP ore over the last six months as it negotiates the terms of the 2026 contract with steelmakers. China banned the purchase of Jimblebar fins, another form of iron ore in September. This was followed by the Jinbao product in November. Last week, traders were instructed to purchase fewer Newman fines and lumps?and Macfines. However, the directive also allowed the purchase of those grades of iron ore that are already in port. The ban this week restricts the allowed range of products to Newman lumps, Mac fines, and other stocks that are already stored in ports. In the afternoon of Thursday, benchmark April iron ore price on the 'Singapore Exchange' rose by more than 3%. BHP declined comment, and CMRG didn't immediately respond to a comment request. (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez, Pooja Dasai).
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Ribera, the EU's antitrust chief, is open to granting state aid to heavy energy consumers in crisis
Teresa Ribera, Europe's Competition Chief said on Thursday that European Union governments could 'allow state aid for energy-intensive companies to offset the steep rise in electricity prices due to the increase in oil and gas prices caused by the Iran War. Ribera said at a conference organized by the German antitrust agency Bundeskartellamt that "for the moment we have untapped State Aid possibilities" which member states could still use to provide relief to the electricity prices of energy intensive?users. She said the European Commission is also prepared to provide support measures and longer-term plans for businesses to counter the impact caused by the war. This was based on the previous?measures taken to combat the COVID epidemic and the war in Ukraine. These programs allowed the government to give billions of Euros to companies. Ribera stated that "we are not yet there but in the event of a crisis, we must draw on our experience from previous crises." Ribera said that she is now evaluating the U.S. technology company's new attitude. She had earlier threatened to?temporarily block Meta Platforms? from excluding rival AI Chatbots? on its messaging service WhatsApp. "Last Week, Meta announced that it would reverse the decision to exclude AI chatbots of third parties from WhatsApp. However, it will start charging a charge. She said that we are?now evaluating if this change in policy has any impact on the need to act urgently by the?Commission." The rivals said that the fees were?too complex and too expensive and urged the EU enforcer of antitrust to issue a interim measure against Meta. (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavens, Foo Yunchee)
Russell: India's sponge iron blitz to save South African coal
It has become increasingly difficult to find thermal coal exporters who are willing to take on the risk of a lower price, a reduced demand from China and India and, for Indonesian miners, uncertainty about government policy.
There is one group that seems to be quite optimistic about coal exports. South Africa's coal miners look forward to an increase in demand from India, their largest buyer. They also anticipate improvements to the rail infrastructure which will allow for higher volumes.
The coal South African producers are seeing a strong demand for, however, is not the traditional electricity generation. Instead, it's for industrial processes like making sponge iron or cement.
Last week, the South African Coal Conference was held in Cape Town by McCloskey and OPIS.
The main message was that South Africa is restoring its rail network, and 6 million metric tonnes of coal will be transported in 2026.
According to commodity analysts Kpler's data, South Africa will export 60.96 millions tons of coal in 2025. Half of that amount is expected to go to India.
It was up from the 58.13 millions tons recorded in 2024. However, it is still short of the 77.2 millions in 2018.
South Africa's miner are confident of a growing market if they can increase exports by around 65 million tonnes in 2026.
India is the largest producer of sponge steel, an intermediate between iron ore and crude st.
According to the Sponge Iron Manufacturers Association it produced approximately 55.7 million tonnes in the fiscal year 2024-25. Analysts estimate this could rise to 75 million tons by 2030, given India's high demand for steel.
South African coal meets the requirements for producing a ton of sponge iron.
The most efficient way to produce sponge iron is by using coal that has an energy content of?between 5,000 and 5,500 kilocalories/kg (kcal/kg).
South Africa has an advantage on the basis of delivered costs over Australia, Russia and U.S. mines, despite producing similar quality coal.
Indonesia is the largest coal exporter in the world. It produces lower energy coal that is very popular among Indian electric utilities, as it is less expensive than other grades.
South Africa, which has little competition from Indonesia as a supplier, is preferred by India's producers of sponge iron, who are unable to obtain enough domestic coal because policy dictates power companies take priority.
The additional coal consumption if sponge iron production increases by 20 million tonnes per year by 2030 is 24 million tons.
South Africa is unable to meet the demand alone, but it's logical that its exporters can sell any volume they are able to ship due to the high demand.
CEMENT HELPS
India's cement manufacturers also depend on imported coal and expect to increase production from 453 millions tons in 2024-25 fiscal to around 480 in the current 12-month period.
Although cement production is less energy-intensive than the production of sponge iron, up to 250kg of coal are required to produce a ton.
The increase in cement production will result in a rise of several million tons per year for coal consumption. However, the domestic market will not be able meet the entire demand, so imports will again become a major factor.
This demand is likely to spark a rise in coal prices. Prices dropped to a four-year low at the end of last year and have only modestly recovered since.
The demand for coal produced in South Africa will be crucial, especially from China and developed economies in North Asia like Japan and South Korea.
As Japan and South Korea reduce coal-fired electricity generation, and China continues its rapid rollout of renewables, it's likely the demand for high quality thermal coal will remain flat or even trend weaker.
Even if the seaborne price is relatively stable, South Africa’s exporters will still be able sell as much as they can given their relative advantage.
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These are the views of the columnist, who is also an author. (Editing by Christian Schmollinger).
(source: Reuters)