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Oil prices continue to decline as oil flows through Hormuz are expected to be smoother
On Wednesday, oil prices continued to fall, and traded 'near the four-month lows reached in the previous session. This was on the back of signs that more oil tankers stuck in the Gulf after the Iran war were set to leave the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures fell 37 cents or 0.5% to $76.71 per barrel at 0043 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped 36 cents or 0.5% to $72.85 per barrel. Both benchmarks fell nearly 1% Tuesday, reaching their lowest levels since March. The price of oil has been under pressure since this week, after Washington gave Tehran a waiver from sanctions for 60 days following the initial peace talks. This allowed it to sell its oil. Tomomichi Akuta is a senior economist with Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting. He said that crude oil prices fell due to hopes of easing U.S. - Iran tensions and a possible recovery in oil shipments across the Strait of Hormuz. He added that "further progress in the nuclear negotiations could push prices to pre-war levels." Oman and Iran agreed to continue discussions on Tuesday about the future administration of the Strait. U.S. Secretary Marco Rubio stated that any Iranian attempt at levying transit fees would be a violation of international law. The durability of the agreement remains uncertain. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that Iran agreed to "infinity" of nuclear inspections. Tehran denied this claim. Investors also watch to see how quickly Middle Eastern producers are able to restore exports, and whether or not more ships enter the region. A military source in Iran told the Fars News Agency that only a few vessels were allowed to?pass?through?the strait every day, under coordination with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy. Data from ship-tracking showed that three supertankers stranded in the Gulf passed through the strait Tuesday. After the U.S. and Iran ceasefire agreement, the U.N. Shipping Agency said that an evacuation plan is in place to allow hundreds of ships carrying 11,000 seafarers stranded on the Gulf coast to pass through the strait. According to market sources, crude stocks dropped by 765,00 barrels in the week ending June 19. The data was released on Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute. Nine analysts surveyed by estimated that crude inventories had fallen by an average of 4.5 million barrels over the past week. (Reporting and editing by Yuka Obayashi)
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South Korean shares rise 4.1% on chip stocks' recovery
South Korea's KOSPI recovered sharply on Wednesday morning. It surged 4.1% in the first 30 minutes after nearly a 10% plunge just a day earlier. Retail?investors were rushing to buy a dip. KOSPI increased by more than 330 points, to 8,550.21, just moments after trading started at 0000 GMT. Market leader Samsung Electronics jumped more?than 9% and SK Hynix gained 5%. Seo 'Sang-young is a strategist with Mirae Asset Securities Co. He said that the rebound immediately recouped the double-digit losses of the previous session as retail investors filled the order books. Seo stated that "retail investors are a major factor in this market volatility. They were waiting for the right time to enter the market due to FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out)." The U.S. waits for the inflation and job data while Micron reports earnings in a few weeks. Hyundai Motors and its sister automaker Kia Corp both saw gains of 1.66% and respectively 1.97%. POSCO Holdings rose 0.93% while Samsung BioLogics rose 2.04%. KOSPI is up 102.96% this year. The?won is down 6.2% this year against the dollar. On the money and debt markets, September futures for 3-year Treasury bonds lost 0.04 points to 102.99. The benchmark 10-year Korean bond yield increased by 0.6 basis point to 4.184%, while the most liquid 3-year Korean Treasury Bond yield rose by 1.1 basis points. Foreigners sold shares worth 626.9 billion won. Reporting by Cynthia Kim, Editing by Jacqueline Wong
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Pharrell Williams, designer at Louis Vuitton, borrows California surf culture during Paris heatwave
Pharrell, the Louis Vuitton designer and pop singer, created a giant artificial water fall to set a backdrop for his spring-summer 2027 collection. The launch of Paris Fashion Week took place on Tuesday as a heatwave that broke all records engulfed large parts of France. As they walked on the sand, models wore a mix of denims, hoodies, and flashy jackets. Others carried tiny monogrammed bags while others carried surfboards. The show was heavily influenced by American surf and skate culture. The silhouette of many looks included low-cut sneakers with white rubber soles and laces that resembled Californian lifestyle brand Vans. During the show outside Cite Universitaire in southern Paris, staff and viewers were seen shivering and gasping. Around 9 pm local time, temperatures remained above 30 C. Paris' runway shows began as temperatures in western and central France, which includes Paris, reached around 40 C. This forced tourist attractions like the Eiffel tower to close. So far, the heat has not caused any show cancellations. Fashion Week's organising body FHCM said in an email that some labels such as Dior and Rick Owens changed their schedules so they could hold morning shows. A spokesperson for LVMH's flagship Louis Vuitton brand said that the company had increased water supplies and 'increased breaks' ahead of Williams' performance to improve working conditions. Classic styles included dark green suits and coats, and pullovers with patches of leather. The?Paris men's fashion week?will be followed by a?high couture week?starting on July 6. Pierpaolo's first Balenciaga couture show is among the most anticipated. (Reporting and editing by David Gregorio; Tassilo Humble)
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The court lifts the deadline for Trump's administration to install US park exhibits in time for the 250th anniversary
A U.S. court of appeals ruled Tuesday that President Donald Trump's government does not have to restore dozens of exhibits it has removed from national parks, including those on slavery and climate changes. A unanimous three-judge panel from the Boston-based First U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals temporarily halted a judge’s July 3 deadline that the National Park Service must reinstall exhibits taken down under a Trump Directive targeting displays "inappropriately disparaging Americans past or present." Angel Kelley, a U.S. district judge in Boston, concluded that the displays had been removed as part the illegal effort by the administration to "rewrite the nation's?history with a whiteout pen." Critics accuse Trump of erasing parts of American history in order to fit what they say is his false narrative about the country. The 1st Circuit has declined to temporarily pause Kelley’s decision to halt Interior Secretary Doug Burgum’s implementation of Trump’s March 2025 Executive Order. The 1st Circuit panel of judges, made up of three Democratic presidents appointed judges, stated that it is still evaluating whether Kelley's June 12 ruling should be put on hold until the appeals process and will rule "promptly." Kelley was involved in a lawsuit brought by the National Parks Conservation Association and American Association for State and Local History, who contested the legality and removal of exhibits. In a statement released jointly, the two called the 1st Circuit decision to extend the deadline "disappointing". The decision of the administration to not reinstall or reinstate censored material, especially in advance our nation's 250th anniversary celebrations, is a disservice both to park visitors this summer and to broader American public, they stated. The U.S. Department of Interior overseeing the National Park Service did not respond immediately to a comment request. Trump's executive orders took aim at what he termed a "revisionist" movement that painted the United States in a negative light, portraying it as "inherently racist or sexist or oppressive, and otherwise irredeemably flawed." It also directed changes to be made across all parks. In accordance with Trump's directive, at least 51 exhibits were removed or thrown away from 37 different sites. One exhibit was at the former U.S. Presidential mansion located in Philadelphia's Independence National Historical Park, which described the ownership of slaves by George Washington. Kelley, appointed by Democratic president Joe Biden, ordered that the signs and exhibits be restored "by the 250th anniversary" to honor the remarkable achievements of the United States. The anniversary falls on July 4th. The U.S. Justice Department filed an appeal, calling Kelley’s ruling judicial abuse. It said that complying with Kelley’s deadline of July 3, to reinstall all the software, would be "herculean" and "unmanageable."
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U.S. Senate votes against Trump's war on Iran
The Republican-majority U.S. Senate passed legislation Tuesday that would halt U.S. military action against Iran. However, it is not clear what impact it will have on the war while President Donald Trump's Administration negotiates a deal with the Islamic Republic. The Senate voted in favor of a concurrent resolution that was passed by the House of Representatives earlier this month. This reflects a growing concern among Trump's Republicans over the unpopular conflict which began on February 28, despite the majority of Republicans voting for it. Four 'Republicans joined all Democrats except one in voting for the resolution. ?Two Republicans did not vote. The resolution directs Trump that U.S. forces should not be involved in hostilities against or with Iran. However, it is likely to only remain a symbolic vote. The 1973 War Powers Act states that the measure is not sent to Trump for his signature. The White House, however, has maintained that the 'legislation' is not constitutional and therefore not binding. Legal experts say it's likely that the court will decide this contested question. Scott Anderson, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and senior editor for Lawfare, said that "the executive 'branch' will likely ignore this on constitutional grounds. It is not clear who would have the standing to sue in order to enforce it." (Reporting and editing by Sanjeev Mglani; Additional reporting by Richard Cowan)
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Gold drops as rate-hike betting boosts dollar to an all-time high
The?U.S. dollar rose on Tuesday, causing gold prices to fall. The dollar rose to a new high, despite the fact that oil prices were lower due to progress in U.S. Iran talks. By 1:50 pm, spot gold had fallen 1.4% to $4131.24 an ounce. ET (1750 GMT). U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery settled 1.3% lower, at $4149.40 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar rose to its highest rate in over a year, on Tuesday. This made gold more expensive for buyers from abroad. "Right Now gold and silver don't really look to the Middle East." Bob?Haberkorn is a senior market strategist for StoneX. He believes that investors are more interested in what the Federal Reserve announced last week. Kevin Warsh, the new Fed Chair, has sent hawkish signals about inflation to combat. This has prompted investors to increase their bets. According to CME FedWatch Tool, traders now expect a rate increase in December. This is up from the 61% they expected before the Fed's meeting last week. Gold is seen as an inflation hedge, but it suffers in high interest rate environments as the precious metal offers no return. The United States has waived its sanctions against Iran for 60-days starting Monday. This is after the first round of talks in the context of a new peace agreement. However, hostilities continue to take place in Lebanon, according to officials. U.S. Vice-President JD Vance had earlier said that talks with Iranian officials held in Switzerland laid the foundations for a final peace agreement, and that tanker traffic through the previously clogged Strait of Hormuz was increasing. Brent crude futures dropped more than 1% Tuesday. Investors now await U.S. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, Personal Consumption Spending data, is due Thursday. This will provide further hints on monetary policy. (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra and Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Jonathan Ananda and Dita Pujara) (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra and Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Jonathan Ananda and Diti Pujara)
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Stocks drop as chipmakers, tech and other stocks slump due to rate bets
Global stocks fell on Monday, with a selloff of technology and semiconductors shares leading the way. Investors were bracing for a more aggressive Federal Reserve response to inflation. Wall Street saw the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, lead losses. Semiconductors?and?some megacaps were also under pressure. Nvidia shares fell 3%, Tesla shares dropped 5%. Shares of SpaceX recovered from their initial declines and traded up 1.6%. Chip stocks fell 7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.06%. The S&P 500 dropped 1%. And the Nasdaq Composite fell by 1.6%. Amanda Agati is the chief investment officer of PNC Asset Management Group. The STOXX600 index fell 0.51% in Europe, due to losses among semiconductor and chip-equipment manufacturers. Seoul's KOSPI Index plunged by 10% in its biggest one-day decline since March. MSCI's global stock index fell by 1.26%. David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, said that questions are being raised about AI infrastructure spending. This is especially true as some corporations plan to sell their equity in order to fund expansion. Time will tell if it is just another "buy the dip" opportunity or a sign of even worse things to follow. OIL RESISTS BELOW $80 BARREL Oil price remained "subdued", with Brent crude remaining below $80 per barrel, as tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz grew and physical market prices approached pre-conflict prices. After the first round talks in a tentative peace agreement reached last week to end more than three months war, the U.S. has agreed to?waive sanctions on Iran? for 60 days? starting Monday. Investors are now more focused on the inflation outlook and central banks policy, rather than lower oil prices. The markets now expect the Fed under Kevin Warsh to take a more firm stance on inflation. In recent sessions, U.S. Treasury rates have surged. The 2-year yields, which are highly sensitive to expectations of interest rate changes -- reached 16-month highs. Both 2-year and 10-year yields on Tuesday were slightly lower than the previous day, at 4.20% apiece. Investors are close to fully pricing in an interest rate increase by September, according to the money markets. In this context, the dollar has reached its highest level in a year against a basket currency. The data does not indicate that rates should be raised. It seems they should pause and wait to see how the Middle East conflict-driven inflation data will change as a result of the negotiations. The Yen is at a 40-Year Low Money markets have now priced in a rate increase by September. This has helped push the dollar index up to its highest level for a year against a basket. The index rose 0.32% last to 101.33. The strength of the dollar has had a 'heavy impact on the Japanese yen. It hovered at a low level for 40 years, 161.53 per $1. Investors reduced expectations of further European Central Bank tightening, and the euro fell below $1.14. It was its lowest level since a year. Satsuki Katayama, Japanese Finance Minister, said that she had discussed global financial markets on Monday with U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent. Analysts said this could indicate a rising 'risk of intervention for the support of the yen. The pound in Britain fell by 0.35%, to $1.3201, on the 10th anniversary. Sterling remained under pressure following the resignation of Prime Minister Keir starmer, which paved the way for a smooth transition to Andy Burnham. Gold fell 1.5%, to $4,127 per ounce, as expectations of higher interest rates reduced the appeal for non-yielding investments. Bitcoin fell by 2.95%, to $62,475.67. Ethereum fell 4.12% to $1.661.63.
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Gold drops as rate-hike betting boosts dollar to an all-time high
The?U.S. dollar?hit a one-year high on Tuesday, outweighing support from lower oil prices amid progress in U.S.-Iran talks. Dollar?hit a year-high on expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike. This outweighed support from lower oil prices in light of progress in U.S. Iran talks. By 11:45 am, spot gold had fallen by 1.2% to $4138.79 an ounce. ET (1545 GMT). U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery fell by 1.1% to $4156.40 an ounce. The U.S. Dollar rose to its highest levels in over a year, making gold more expensive for foreign buyers. Right now, gold and silver don't look to the Middle East. Bob Haberkorn is a senior market strategist for StoneX. He said that they are more interested in what the Federal Reserve announced last week. Investors have increased their bets for interest rate hikes after Kevin 'Warsh, the new Fed chair, made hawkish comments about inflation. According to CME FedWatch Tool, traders now expect a rate increase by December. This is up from the 61% they expected before the Fed's meeting last week. Gold is seen as an inflation hedge, but it suffers in high interest rate environments as the precious metal offers no return. The United States lifted sanctions against Iran for a period of 60 days, starting Monday, after the first round of talks in the context of a new peace agreement. However, hostilities continued in Lebanon, according to officials. Earlier, ?U.S. Vice President JDVance said that talks with Iranian officials had been a success in Switzerland, and laid the foundations for a "final peace agreement". He added that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has increased. Brent crude futures dropped more than 1% Tuesday. Investors now await U.S. The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, Personal Consumption?Expenditures, is due on Thursday. This data will provide further clues?on monetary policies. (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra and Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Jonathan Aanda and Dita Pujara) (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra and Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Jonathan Ananda and Diti Pujara)
Andy Home: Tin price bubble is a source of trouble and toil for the global industry
London and Shanghai markets have seen a surge in tin prices, which are now at all-time highs.
According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, a state-backed organization, this rally is "unreasonable". Last month, it warned all parties to "avoid following trends blindly".
Beijing's warning hasn't stopped Chinese investors from chasing prices higher and higher.
On Thursday, the volume of trading in the tin contract at Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE), exceeded one million metric tons. This is more than double the annual global physical consumption.
Tin is in a clear speculative boom, and it will burst as soon as the trend changes. The mismatch between physical market size and interest in investing foreshadows future volatility.
Not just for tin. The current tidal waves of investor purchases washing through the industrial-metals sector may be a sign for other metal supply chain.
EXUBERANCE IRRATIONALE
Since several months, the London Metal Exchange (LME), tin contract has been bubbling. However, this week it exploded as Chinese investors brought with them their financial power to the rally.
On Tuesday, LME's three-month metal surpassed the previous price peak of March 2022 at $51,000 per ton and soared to $54,760 by Wednesday.
It is the lack of supply that drives this narrative.
Tin's structural issues with supply are well-known. Global mine production is concentrated in a few countries, and heavily dependent on frontier jurisdictions like the Democratic Republic of Congo or the semi-autonomous Wa State of Myanmar.
This rally is not at the right time.
The tin supply situation has improved in recent months.
Since the M23 insurgency was in danger of overrunning the Congo's mine Bisie a year earlier, the threat has diminished. Alphamin Resources, the mine operator, has raised its annual production forecast after a strong performance in the third quarter.
After a long absence, the giant Man Maw Mine in Myanmar has also begun to show signs of renewed productivity. China imported 7,190 tonnes of tin-based raw materials from Myanmar in November. This was the highest monthly total since August 2024.
According to the Indonesia Tin Exporters Association, Indonesia will continue to crackdown on illegal mining, but the official sector production quotas are expected to increase from 53,000 tones in 2025 to 60 000 tons in 2026.
There is no shortage of refined tin at the moment.
Metal producers and traders have contributed significant quantities of metal to the price rally. The combined stocks of the LME and ShFE rose from 11,000 tones at the end October to more than 19,000 tons.
Inventory was less than 5,000 tons at the previous peak of 2022.
When China's metals regulator describes the tin price's recent surge as "unreasonable", they may be right.
LIQUIDITY MISMATCH
Paraphrasing economist John Maynard Keynes: a market may remain "unreasonable", longer than you are able to remain solvent.
Investors can have a large impact on the price, especially if you're dealing with a small-scale market like tin.
Shanghai is a clear example of this.
China's commodities markets have been characterized by such speculative booms for a long time. It was alumina last year.
Chinese authorities are in a well-honed firefighting mode. They have raised trading margins and, in particular, the cost of intraday transactions, while limiting positions for non-members.
Tin's story of limited supply and increasing use as a semiconductor-solder has not only attracted the Chinese.
Over the past few years, the number of funds participating in the London Tin Market has steadily increased.
The investment fund's long position reached a record high of 2,887 contracts in late 2021 or early 2022 when tin prices were at their highest. This is equivalent to 14,435 tonnes. The investment fund long position reached a record of 5,753 contracts or 28,765 tonnes at one point last month.
The liquidity rush has increased volatility in a market that is known for its wild price swings.
Futures frenzy is causing real problems in the supply chain, as consumers and producers struggle to cover their margins.
When does price risk take precedence over liquidity risk? How long can you "remain solvent"?
FUNDS AND FUNDAMENTALS
Tin was not a popular metal a few years back. Most fund managers did not invest in tin because the market was too small both for physical volume and futures trading.
This is changing, as the world begins to realize the centrality of tin in the Internet of Things. No circuit boards, no internet. In our hyper-connected, connected world, there is very little more.
The result is that too much money floods a market unprepared to handle it.
CNMIA is the voice of the world's biggest refined tin producers and users. It is very clear on the dangers posed to the present exuberance.
The rapid price rise driven by funds has diverged from industry fundamentals and magnified market risks, harming the global chain of industry.
Tin's dramatic story may be a timely reminder for other metals in demand, such as copper, as fund money floods the industrial metals sector in search of other hard assets than gold and silver.
Andy Home is an author and columnist. The opinions expressed in this column are Andy Home's. Open Interest (ROI), a data-driven, thought-provoking commentary on the markets and finance. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X.
(source: Reuters)