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Anglo American cuts its 2026 copper production guidance by 10% and reports a 10% decline in copper output for 2025
Anglo American, a global miner, announced on Thursday a 10% decline in its?copper output last year, to 695,000 tons. This is the lower end of their guidance. They also cut their 2026 forecast for?the transitional metal. The London-listed company now expects copper production in 2026 to range between 700,000- 760,000 tons. This is down from the previous forecast of 760,000-820,000 tonnes, due partly to lower production at its Chilean mine, Collahuasi. Anglo expects to record charges of around $200 million for the second half 2025 in relation to "rehabilitation provisions" at its Chile copper operation. The London-listed company announced in September a plan to merge with Canada's Teck Resources for $53 billion, all-stock and no-premium. This would make the miner the fifth largest copper producer in world. The metal is used in electric vehicles and renewable energy infrastructure. Both companies have been undergoing significant restructuring in the last few years, largely due to previous takeover attempts. Anglo has refocused on copper and ore while trying to sell or spin-off its struggling De Beers business as well as its nickel and metallurgical coke assets. All of these divestments have not yet been completed. Duncan Wanblad, CEO of the company, said in a Thursday statement that he was "committed to see our portfolio transformation to its conclusion". He added that each sale or separation process would be progressed. Anglo has said that it is reviewing the value for the De Beers diamonds after the 2025 production of rough?diamonds dropped by 12%, to 21.7 millions carats. It has lowered its 2026 production forecast to a range between 21 million and 26 million carats from 26 million to 29, as the demand is low and inventories are high. De Beers is also expected to report a loss by 2025. Anglo will announce its financial results for 2025 on February 20, 2019.
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ArcelorMittal South Africa reduces its loss after closing long-stack steel operations
ArcelorMittal South Africa announced?on?Thursday that it had narrowed its loss for the full year by 34% due to lower raw material prices and after closing down its money-losing, long steel business. Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest steelmaker reported a headline loss in the year ending December 2025 of 3.355 billion Rand ($207.86million), compared to a loss of 5.1 billion Rand the previous year. South Africa's unit of global steelmaker ArcelorMittal is struggling with a weak local market, high electricity prices and competition from mini-mills for recycling scrap metals in the country as well as imports from China. ArcelorMittal South Africa's Luxembourg-headquartered parent company, however, on ?Thursday reported earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $1.59 billion for ?the fourth quarter, beating analysts' ?average estimate of $1.51 billion. The South African unit reported that its crude steel sales and production were down by 12%, to 2.3 and 2 million tons respectively. The realised steel price was 5% lower, in rands and 3% less in dollars. ArcelorMittal South Africa shut down its long steel plants last year to reduce losses. In its results announcement, the company said that long-steel operations had a neutral impact on?EBITDA for 2025 after a loss of 1.7 billion rands in 2024. The company confirmed the date of January 22. With the state-owned Industrial Development Corporation, that could lead to a possible transaction. Bloomberg reported that ArcelorMittal South Africa, whose?second largest shareholder is IDC with 8.2% of the shares, had re-opened talks after the initial negotiations. Stalled Last year, there was a valuation. ArcelorMittal South Africa stated that the discussions are continuing and will shape its outlook in 2026, if successful.
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Sources: Nippon Steel is considering a convertible bond issue of $3.2 billion, according to sources
According to two sources familiar with the matter, Nippon Steel, Japan's largest steel company, is considering the sale of up to?500 billion yen ($3.2billion) in convertible bonds. This would be a transaction of unprecedented size in Japan. Sources said that the steelmaker was considering making a decision this month. They declined to name them as the information wasn't public. Reporting the potential issuance for the first. Nippon Steel stated in a press release that nothing had been decided. Following the release of this report, the company's shares fell by 2%. According to LSEG, at 500 billion yen the convertible bond issuance would be largest of its kind in Japan. One source said that the issuance amount could be reduced, or the plan could be re-evaluated. Sources said that Nippon Steel prefers to issue the convertible bonds in order to avoid a capital raise which would result in immediate share dilution. Also, as domestic interest rates are rising, they can be issued as zero-coupon bond. At a set price, convertible bonds can be turned into shares. The steelmaker needs capital to expand its overseas business, including in the U.S.A. and India?and for decarbonisation efforts. Sources?stated that the company needs long-term financing to replace a 2 trillion yen bridge loan taken out last year for its acquisition by U.S. Steel. Steelmaker's performance has declined due to tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on imports of steel and the competition from Chinese exports. Sources also claim that the Japan?Bank of International Cooperation (JBIC) is looking at lending Nippon Steel funds totaling approximately 1 trillion yen (6.37 billion dollars). JBIC stated in a press release that it would not be commenting on specific cases.
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Aurubis' profit falls on lower copper refining costs
Aurubis, Europe's biggest copper producer, reported on Thursday a?first-quarter operating core profit? that was slightly below the?market expectation?. This was due to lower treatment and refinement charges for smelting Copper Concentrates and a maintenance shut down at its Hamburg facility. The operating profit before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization for the first quarter fell from 184 millions euros to 164million euros (193million euros) compared with a year earlier. This was slightly below the 169 million euro estimate of analysts in a poll provided by the company. Hamburg-based company?said that its net cash flow was -8 millions euros for the first quarter, a significant decrease from the previous?year’s 178million euros. It said in a?presentation that this was due to?a temporary rise in working capital and increased metal prices levels. Toralf haag, the chief executive of the company, said that despite a volatile geopolitical climate and a good result in metals markets as well as stable product markets for its products, it was a positive outcome. Aurubis produces 1.2 million metric tonnes of copper cathodes, 2 million tons sulphuric acids, and other metals such as gold, silver, and tin. Analysts expect the bull run in gold to continue. Aurubis raised its forecast for 2025/26 by a few million euros on January 28. The previous estimate was for an EBT of between 300 and 400 million euros in the fiscal year of 2025/26. The German company said that its EBT for the first quarter was 105 million euro.
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Copper, precious metals and oil are down as global tensions decrease;
The prices of commodities such as crude oil, silver, and gold, all fell on Thursday after the leaders of China, the United States, and Iran spoke by phone. Investors reduced their positions due to a stronger dollar in which commodities are priced. Silver fell almost 15%, while gold, crude and copper dropped about 2%. Tony Sycamore is an analyst at broker IG. He said, "We have seen extreme volatility this week in precious metals, other commodities, and we are now experiencing some aftershocks." He added that "talks between Iran and United States seem to be on track again, which has reduced some of the geopolitical premium in commodity markets, especially oil." The tensions in the trade front also eased after the call between Trump & Xi. Investors are tempted to sell gold when it is at these levels. The dollar was stable at the beginning of Asian trading ahead of the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank and Bank of England. Both are expected to hold rates later in the day. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket six currencies, traded at a near-two-week high. The dollar's strength makes commodities more expensive for buyers of other currencies. Prices dropped on Monday, after U.S. president Donald Trump announced Kevin Warsh's nomination as the new Fed chair. This triggered a sell-off of risk assets. The dollar is boosted by a hawkish outlook from the U.S. central banks, while gold and silver are at a higher cost of opportunity. VOLATILE COMPONENTS Spot silver also plunged from its earlier session high of?nearly one week. Last week, silver reached a new record of $121.64 and gold reached a record of $5,594.82 per ounce. Christopher Wong is a strategist with OCBC. He said, "Sentiment has become soggy in?most asset categories, as losses feed into each other and create a feedback loop that reinforces itself amid low market liquidity." He added that precious metals and cryptocurrencies, as well as regional equity, reflect such expectations. After the U.S. agreed to hold talks with Iran in Oman, the oil prices dropped about 2%. This eased fears of a possible military conflict disrupting supply from the Middle East's key producing region. Copper was also under pressure due to concerns about demand and the increasing stock in London Metal Exchange warehouses. The metal, which is widely used in the construction industry, had already recovered from a two session slump. This was aided by China's plans to increase its strategic copper reserves. Soybeans have bucked trend and reached a two-month peak, spurred by Trump's comments that China may consider buying cargoes of soybeans from the United States. High inventories also contributed to a 2% decline in iron ore. (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez; Additional reporting in Bengaluru by Ishaan arora; Reporting by Naveen Thural)
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Sources: Nippon Steel is considering a convertible bond issue of $3.2 billion, according to sources
According to two sources familiar with the matter, Japan's Nippon Steel may sell convertible bonds worth up to 500 billion yen (about $3 billion), in the largest transaction of its kind ever in Japan. Sources declined to name themselves as they did not want the information made public. Reports the potential issue for the first. Nippon Steel stated in a press release that "nothing is decided yet". Following the release of the report, shares in the company fell by 6%. According to LSEG data, at 500 billion yen the convertible bond issuance would be the largest in Japan. One source said that the issuance amount could be reduced, or the plan reconsidered. Sources said that Nippon Steel prefers to issue the convertible bonds in order to avoid a capital raise which would result in immediate share dilution. Also, as domestic interest rates are rising, they can be issued as zero-coupon bond. Convertible bonds are able to be converted into shares for a set price. The steelmaker needs capital to expand its overseas business, including in the U.S. and India, as well as for decarbonisation projects. Sources said that the company needs long-term financing to replace its?bridge loan? it took out last year for its acquisition by U.S. Steel, which totaled around 2 trillion yen. Steelmaker's performance has declined due to tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on imports of steel and the competition from Chinese exports. Sources also stated that the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) is looking at lending funds totaling approximately 1 trillion yen (6.37 billion dollars) to Nippon Steel. JBIC didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment.
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Morning bid Europe-Skeptic investors haunted with tech sell-off
Stella Qiu gives us a look at what the future holds for European and Global markets on February 5th: Investors were confident that the major U.S. tech firms would deliver a strong quarter with rosy forecasts. They increased their exposures ahead of this earnings season. This has proven to be a costly error. Google Alphabet Released It delivered solid results, but also surprised analysts when it announced that capital expenditures would be between $175 billion and $185 billion in this year - far above Wall Street's expectations. This only fueled fears about the?explosion of artificial intelligence investment. The valuations of artificial intelligence are already high and there are signs that many jobs in software or data analytics are being automated. There seems to be only one direction to go: down. Alphabet's shares fluctuated wildly in the hours after closing - dropping over 6% once - before settling at 0.4% lower. You would think that the increasing AI spending would benefit a chip manufacturer like?Nvidia. Nvidia's shares rose 2% following the bell. However, equipment suppliers in Asia have been hit hard by the recession, with South Korea down a staggering 3.5%, and Taiwan down 1%. Wall Street futures tried to recover but lost momentum quickly as the selling spread to precious materials, with gold and silver both falling below $5,000 an ounce. European futures indicate a lower opening ahead of the policy decisions of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. Both are expected keep rates the same. The ECB will likely indicate that no policy moves are imminent, even if recent euro-dollar surges fuel concerns that inflation could undershoot target. BoE is expected to keep its options open as to when it will reduce rates again, waiting to see if a weakened jobs market will help to lower inflation pressures. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday. ECB-BoE Policy Meeting, January PMI Data for Euro Zone, Germany and France
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China's gold consumption in 2025 drops for the second consecutive year
The 'China Gold Association' reported that China's gold demand dropped for the second year in a row, but the sales of bars and coins, fueled by a growing demand for safehavens, surpassed jewellery purchases for the very first time. The state-backed association reported that China's gold demand in 2025 will fall by 3.57%, or 950.096 tons. This is the second annual decline after the 98.58% drop in 2024. China's gold purchases in 2025 will surpass jewellery sales for the first time, as consumers view gold more and more as an investment. The purchase of gold jewellery has dropped sharply, by 31.61 percent, to 363.836 tonnes in 2025. This represents only 38.29% of the total consumption. The purchase of gold bars and coins, on the other hand, increased for a second consecutive year by 35.14 percent, reaching 504.238 tonnes, which is more than half of all gold consumption. The decrease in gold jewellery sales outweighed the increase in bars and coins purchased by 37 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange contract is also expected to rise by?nearly 60 percent in 2025. The price increase has slowed the demand for jewelry, but boosted the demand for bars and coins that investors prefer. The gold price has been extremely volatile since the end of January. On January 30, the spot price fell nearly 10%, its steepest drop since 1983. However, on Tuesday, it made its largest daily gain of 5.86%, since 2008. The association reported that gold production using domestic raw materials increased by 1.09% on an annual basis to 381.339 tonnes. (Reporting and editing by Jacqueline Wong, Clarence Fernandez and Liz Lee in Beijing; Dylan Duan and Shanghai newsroom)
Andy Home: Tin price bubble is a source of trouble and toil for the global industry
London and Shanghai markets have seen a surge in tin prices, which are now at all-time highs.
According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, a state-backed organization, this rally is "unreasonable". Last month, it warned all parties to "avoid following trends blindly".
Beijing's warning hasn't stopped Chinese investors from chasing prices higher and higher.
On Thursday, the volume of trading in the tin contract at Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE), exceeded one million metric tons. This is more than double the annual global physical consumption.
Tin is in a clear speculative boom, and it will burst as soon as the trend changes. The mismatch between physical market size and interest in investing foreshadows future volatility.
Not just for tin. The current tidal waves of investor purchases washing through the industrial-metals sector may be a sign for other metal supply chain.
EXUBERANCE IRRATIONALE
Since several months, the London Metal Exchange (LME), tin contract has been bubbling. However, this week it exploded as Chinese investors brought with them their financial power to the rally.
On Tuesday, LME's three-month metal surpassed the previous price peak of March 2022 at $51,000 per ton and soared to $54,760 by Wednesday.
It is the lack of supply that drives this narrative.
Tin's structural issues with supply are well-known. Global mine production is concentrated in a few countries, and heavily dependent on frontier jurisdictions like the Democratic Republic of Congo or the semi-autonomous Wa State of Myanmar.
This rally is not at the right time.
The tin supply situation has improved in recent months.
Since the M23 insurgency was in danger of overrunning the Congo's mine Bisie a year earlier, the threat has diminished. Alphamin Resources, the mine operator, has raised its annual production forecast after a strong performance in the third quarter.
After a long absence, the giant Man Maw Mine in Myanmar has also begun to show signs of renewed productivity. China imported 7,190 tonnes of tin-based raw materials from Myanmar in November. This was the highest monthly total since August 2024.
According to the Indonesia Tin Exporters Association, Indonesia will continue to crackdown on illegal mining, but the official sector production quotas are expected to increase from 53,000 tones in 2025 to 60 000 tons in 2026.
There is no shortage of refined tin at the moment.
Metal producers and traders have contributed significant quantities of metal to the price rally. The combined stocks of the LME and ShFE rose from 11,000 tones at the end October to more than 19,000 tons.
Inventory was less than 5,000 tons at the previous peak of 2022.
When China's metals regulator describes the tin price's recent surge as "unreasonable", they may be right.
LIQUIDITY MISMATCH
Paraphrasing economist John Maynard Keynes: a market may remain "unreasonable", longer than you are able to remain solvent.
Investors can have a large impact on the price, especially if you're dealing with a small-scale market like tin.
Shanghai is a clear example of this.
China's commodities markets have been characterized by such speculative booms for a long time. It was alumina last year.
Chinese authorities are in a well-honed firefighting mode. They have raised trading margins and, in particular, the cost of intraday transactions, while limiting positions for non-members.
Tin's story of limited supply and increasing use as a semiconductor-solder has not only attracted the Chinese.
Over the past few years, the number of funds participating in the London Tin Market has steadily increased.
The investment fund's long position reached a record high of 2,887 contracts in late 2021 or early 2022 when tin prices were at their highest. This is equivalent to 14,435 tonnes. The investment fund long position reached a record of 5,753 contracts or 28,765 tonnes at one point last month.
The liquidity rush has increased volatility in a market that is known for its wild price swings.
Futures frenzy is causing real problems in the supply chain, as consumers and producers struggle to cover their margins.
When does price risk take precedence over liquidity risk? How long can you "remain solvent"?
FUNDS AND FUNDAMENTALS
Tin was not a popular metal a few years back. Most fund managers did not invest in tin because the market was too small both for physical volume and futures trading.
This is changing, as the world begins to realize the centrality of tin in the Internet of Things. No circuit boards, no internet. In our hyper-connected, connected world, there is very little more.
The result is that too much money floods a market unprepared to handle it.
CNMIA is the voice of the world's biggest refined tin producers and users. It is very clear on the dangers posed to the present exuberance.
The rapid price rise driven by funds has diverged from industry fundamentals and magnified market risks, harming the global chain of industry.
Tin's dramatic story may be a timely reminder for other metals in demand, such as copper, as fund money floods the industrial metals sector in search of other hard assets than gold and silver.
Andy Home is an author and columnist. The opinions expressed in this column are Andy Home's. Open Interest (ROI), a data-driven, thought-provoking commentary on the markets and finance. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X.
(source: Reuters)