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Brazil's crop agency confirms record soybean crop in new estimate
Conab, the Brazilian crop agency, projected a record soybean production of 176.12 millions metric tons for the upcoming marketing year 2025/26. This is a 2.7% increase from the previous 'crop. Conab's slightly lower yields of 3,619 kilograms per hectare in this year are cited as the reason for the updated estimate. This is 1 million tons less than what was projected by Conab back in December. Conab reported that Brazilian soybean farmers planted 48.67?million hectares (120.2?million acres), a 2.8% rise from the previous season. It added that the harvesting of Brazil's soy new crop has already started in Parana and Mato Grosso states, as well as Acre and?Para. In Mato Grosso (Brazil's largest farming state), the weather has been "favorable", with abundant and uniform rainfall throughout December. These conditions have benefited the development of the crop and helped to recover areas that were affected by the lack of rain in October and November. Conab reported that Brazil, which is the world's biggest soybean exporter and producer, will ship 111.8 millions tons of?soybeans during the current marketing season. The majority of Brazil's soybeans are sent to China. Conab stated that farmers have already started harvesting?their?first corn from fields. Conab predicts that Brazil's first corn production will reach nearly 26 million tonnes. Brazil's second corn crop will be planted after farmers harvest their soybeans and sow them on the same fields. According to preliminary estimates by Conab, Brazil's second crop of corn will reach 110.46 millions tons in 2026. (Reporting and editing by Ana Mano, Joe Bavier, Aide Lewis and Paul Simao).
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Ghana scraps mining stability pacts and doubles royalties
Ghana's regulator said it would scrap long-term mining investments?stability agreement and double royalties as part of sweeping reforms. The country is Africa's largest gold producer, and wants to reap more benefits from the surging bullion price. Isaac Tandoh said that the changes were part of a "broad" overhaul aimed at balancing the government's desire to increase mining profits with investor confidence. A VIOLATION OF MINING STABLITY AGREEMENTS HAS OCCURRED African governments tighten mining rules in order to take advantage of high prices. They often raise royalties and local content demands, which has led to clashes between global miners and African governments over cost and contract certainty. Ghana is the sixth largest gold producer in the world. Tax and royalty agreements are usually locked in for five to fifteen years, in exchange for investment of $300 million to $500 millions for mine expansions and builds. Renewal is only available to companies that meet certain conditions. These include extending the mine life for at least three more years and increasing production by 10%. Newmont, AngloGold Ashanti and Gold Fields are currently operating under stability agreements. They did not respond immediately to requests for comments. Tandoh stated that the changes to be written into legislation will mean Newmont’s stability agreement, which expired in December, will not be renewed. AngloGold Ashanti, Gold Fields and other companies will phase out similar agreements when they expire in 2027. The draft bill, which is expected to be presented to Parliament in March, proposes that royalties start at 9%, and rise to 12%, if gold reaches $4,500 an ounce or more, about double the current range of 3% to 5%. The spot gold price is currently around $4,990 per ounce. Reforms include stricter rules on local content for procurement in Ghana and the support of Ghanaian companies. Tandoh stated in an interview last week that "renewal (of investment stability agreements) will not happen." "Renewal of (investment stability agreements) is conditional and not automatic," Tandoh said during the interview last week. He said that all development agreements would be scrapped because they had been abused. We've seen some companies using revenue from Ghana to purchase mines in other countries while refusing even to pay basic obligations such as contributions to district assemblies. This cannot continue." NEWMONT REQUESTED RENEWAL OF EXPIRED AGREEMENT Ghana was the first to introduce stability agreements during the early 2000s. These agreements helped unlock foreign investment worth billions of dollars, which allowed Ghana to surpass South Africa as Africa’s largest gold producer. Newmont's Ahafo agreement, for instance, established a corporate tax rate of 32.5% and a royalty scale ranging from 3% to 5% (rising up to 3.6%-5.6% within forest reserve areas). Inputs that met the criteria were also eligible for duty and VAT exemptions. A revised 2015 agreement revealed that the extension was linked to a $300 million minimum investment, and targets on mine life, output and Ghanaian jobs. Tandoh stated that Newmont had requested an extension. However, the government is aiming to phase out this regime and replace it with broader rules which "indigenise", more value in the home country and enforce stricter compliance. He said that authorities "listened" to the concerns of smaller and newer projects regarding the proposed royalty increases and would strive for a formula which preserves investment and raises revenue when prices are higher. Tandoh denied that the harsher conditions would scare away capital. "They are operating under harsher conditions and still making profits." "Mining is all about numbers," said he. The Ghana Chamber of Mines didn't immediately respond to comments. Maxwell Akalaare Adombila & Emmanuel Bruce. Editing by Veronica Brown and Mark Potter.
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US seizes Venezuelan-linked tanker before Trump-Machado Meeting
US officials have announced that the United States has taken another Venezuelan-linked tanker. Officials told reporters on Thursday that the United States had seized another Venezuela-linked tanker, before a meeting with?U.S. Donald Trump and Venezuelan Opposition Leader Maria Corina Machado. The seizure marks the sixth vessel that has been targeted in the last few weeks, either for carrying Venezuelan oil in its cargo or having done so previously. Officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity said that the seizure occurred in the Caribbean. Southern Command of the U.S. Military confirmed that U.S. Forces apprehended Motor/Tanker Veronica without incident. The Veronica "operated in defiance of President Trump's established Caribbean quarantine for sanctioned ships." In a press release, Southern Command stated that "the only oil leaving Venezuela is oil that has been coordinated correctly and legally." The seizures were part of Trump's campaign, which culminated with the?U.S. On January 3, he and his wife were seized by forces that swooped into the country. Since then, Trump said that the United States intends to control Venezuela's crude oil resources indefinitely while it works to rebuild Venezuela's decrepit oil industry. The vessels that have been intercepted to date were either under U.S. sanction or part of an unregulated "shadow fleet" of ships that hid their origins in order to transport oil from major sanctioned suppliers -- Iran, Russia or Venezuela. The U.S. seizes a Russian flagged oil tanker after two weeks of pursuing it across the Atlantic. Moscow condemned the move. The latest seizure was made ahead of the upcoming meeting between Trump, Machado and their first face-to -face meeting since the U.S. ousted Maduro. Trump called her before a "freedom warrior" but rejected the idea of installing her as Venezuela's leader after Maduro was ousted, saying that she didn't have enough support at home. A classified CIA report presented to Trump concluded Maduro's loyalists including Rodriguez were the best positioned for stability. Reporting by Idrees Al and Phil Stewart, Editing by Alex Richardson and Aidan Lewis
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Yara will reconsider US ammonia project if EU stops carbon levy
EU considers suspending carbon border levy on fertilisers Farmers pressured to move ahead Yara: Uncertainty puts US plans for low-carbon ammonia in doubt By Kate Abnett BRUSSELS - Yara International's CEO said that if the European Union were to suspend its carbon?border levy, it would force the company to reconsider a low-carbon ammonia plant in the U.S. The EU's Carbon Border Levy, which went into effect on 1 January, imposes CO2 emission fees on imports such as fertilisers and steel to prevent foreign producers from gaining an unfair advantage over European companies that have to pay for their emissions. The European Commission announced last week that it would publish guidance on how to temporarily suspend the carbon fee for fertilisers if "unforeseen" circumstances in the market justified it. Svein Holsether, CEO of Yara, said that the uncertainty has thrown investment plans for low-carbon energy into chaos. Yara intends to make a final decision by summer on a joint project with Air Products in Louisiana. The aim is to produce ammonia low in carbon emissions in Louisiana and sell it to fertiliser producers in Europe. Holsether stated in an interview that "if there is a suspension or cancellation of CBAM we will not be able go forward with what we intend to invest in the U.S." CBAM (EU carbon border levy) improves the case for low-carbon imports of ammonia by requiring them to pay lower emission fees than on "traditional fossil fuel-based" ammonia. If Brussels suspends this mechanism, Yara could instead invest in conventional ammonia. "That's a question we should rethink: Is it possible to decarbonise when there is no market for low-carbon goods? Holsether stated that it was unlikely. Yara will also reassess viability of projects that are low-carbon in Europe. These were developed under the assumption that the border levy would equalize the playing field between more expensive products and those with lower carbon emissions. Holsether stated that "everything must be reevaluated" in light of the new information. The Commission did not specify what conditions could lead to a suspension. Brussels announced last week that it would temporarily reduce import tariffs for some fertilisers. Wopke H. Hoekstra, EU Climate Commissioner, said that temporary measures are needed to deal with the challenges faced by farmers. Hoekstra stated in an interview last week that the goal was to keep the current design. Reporting by Kate Abnett. Mark Potter (Editing)
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Coal India is looking at rare earth deals in Australia, Russia, and Africa, a unit executive says
Coal India, which is focused on coking coal, has been scouting for partnership opportunities to mine rare-earth metals in?Australia and Russia as well as Argentina, Chile, and several African nations, said a senior?executive from its unit. This move follows China's decision to restrict exports of rare-earth materials late last year. The restrictions threaten operations in industries such as autos and electronics, which rely on these?critical minerals. "In our own country as well as in other countries, we will?invest. We are going explore. We are also working with other companies to find rare earth metals. Manoj Kumar Agarwal, Chairman and Managing Director of Bharat Coking?Coal Ltd told an interview that the project is just in its infancy. Agarwal stated that Coal India is pursuing opportunities both locally and overseas. It also aims to work with the state-run IREL and Hindustan Copper. The partnership will be funded by the proceeds of BCCL's initial public offering ($119 million) which closed on Tuesday, after it was oversubscribed?nearly 14 times. The company's offering, which consisted of existing shares and no new issuances, will be listed?Monday. Agarwal said that BCCL plans to purchase coking coal mines from Australia and Russia within the next two or three years. He said that the company aims at increasing its coking 'coal production capacity from 40.5 MTPA to 56 MTPA by fiscal 2030. Investors?bet BCCL's success will be a result of India's infrastructure drive, which relies on steel as an important industrial raw material. Coking coal is an important ingredient in steel production. (Reporting from Hritam Mukherjee, Bengaluru; and Neha Arora, New Delhi. Editing by Tasim Zaid)
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India will reduce the IPO float requirements for large companies to allow Jio to list
MUMBAI - The Indian government approved a reduction in the percentage of shares that large companies seeking to list are required to sell. This has been reduced from 5% to 2.5%. SEBI chair Tuhin Kanta Pandey stated that the Securities and Exchange Board of India has also agreed to a settlement in principle with the National Stock Exchange to resolve a legal dispute which had delayed?the NSE’s initial public offer. Last year, the regulator halved minimum IPO floats for large companies. Companies valued at more than?5 trillion (57 billion dollars) could sell only 2.5% of paid-up capital after their listing. The measure was waiting for a government approval before it could be implemented. Its goal is to?make it easier for the?market to absorb?heavy offerings. Reliance Jio Platforms, Reliance's telecom division, is looking at a listing in this year. The firm would float 2,5% of its shares and could be India's biggest-ever IPO. It's worth over $4 billion. The regulator has eased regulations and accelerated clearances on the?second largest market in the world for initial public offering. Pandey announced on Saturday that regulators will issue the necessary approvals this month for NSE to launch their stock market offering. Reports on Monday stated that the 'exchange' plans to file draft listing documents by the end of March and is currently in discussion with investment banks and?lawfirms to gauge investor interest. NSE is the largest derivatives exchange in the world. It has tried to go public for years but due to ongoing legal cases and concerns about governance, it failed to get regulatory approval. Its main rival BSE Ltd. is listed. (Reporting and writing by Jayshree Upadhyay, Urvi Dugar in Mumbai and Nishit Navin in Bengaluru. Editing and proofreading by Nivedita Bhattacharjee, Emelia Sithole Matarise and Nivedita Bhattacharjee)
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The dollar is stronger and the US tariffs are fading, which has led to a decline in copper prices.
On Thursday, copper prices fell from their record highs?on the strength of the dollar and the easing of concerns about the possible imposition?of U.S. Tariffs on the metal. Benchmark three-month Copper?on the London Metal Exchange?slid 0.8% at 1030 GMT to $13,082 per metric ton, after touching a record high of $13,407 Wednesday. U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that he would not impose tariffs on lithium, rare earths and other essential minerals. Copper is listed as a?U.S. The U.S. has a list of critical minerals that could face a 15% import tariff as early as 2027. However, Trump did not mention this in his statement. Nitesh Shah, commodity strategist at WisdomTree, said that if there is a reduction in the desire to impose tariffs on other metals now, it will reduce the risk of copper. "So there might be a small premium going away." The premium on the LME cash copper contract for the three-month ahead The price of metal has dropped to $44 per ton from $90 on Monday, which indicates a less urgent demand for metal. The dollar's strength also affected prices. The dollar is stronger, making metals denominated in dollars more expensive to buyers of other currencies. Zinc rose 1.5% to $3325.50 per ton after touching $3355 - its highest level since February 3, 2023. The cash LME Zinc contract traded at a $14 discount per ton compared to the three-month ahead . Shah, who is a zinc expert, said that he did not believe the supply of zinc would be particularly tight in the future. Lead rose 0.3% to $2.084.50, a new two-month record. Tin increased 0.5% to $53,715, a close second to the record high of $54,760 set on Wednesday. Nickel fell 1.9% to $18,350, after touching a high of 19 months in the previous session, in a bullish beginning to 2026. Aluminium, on the other hand, dropped 0.6% to $3168. David Wilson, senior commodities strategist at BNP Paribas, said: "It is very difficult to think that these kinds of parabolic price increases are sustainable." (Reporting and editing by David Goodman. Additional reporting by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson, and Tom Daly)
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Kremlin: Trump was right to say Zelenskiy is holding up a Ukrainian peace deal
The Kremlin announced on Thursday that Russia and Donald Trump agreed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was the one holding up any potential peace deal to end Ukraine's war. Trump's assessment of the situation in a?interview contrasted with that of European allies who have maintained that Moscow is not interested in ending the war and only wants to gain as much land as possible while trying to avoid further Western sanctions. Trump said, "I think Putin is ready to make a bargain," when he spoke to him in the Oval Office. "I don't think Ukraine is ready to do a deal," Trump said. When asked why U.S. led negotiations have not yet resolved Europe's biggest land conflict since World War Two, Trump replied: "Zelenskiy." Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin's spokesperson, told reporters that he agreed with Trump when asked if he thought that was true: "I do agree. That is?in fact the case." Both President Putin and Russian officials remain open to talks. The Russian position is well-known. The Russian?position is well-known to American negotiators and President Trump. Russia controls a fifth (or more) of Ukraine. This includes the Crimean Peninsula which it annexed back in 2014. Moscow wants Kyiv's troops to leave parts of the Donetsk Region that it does not control, but claims as its own. Ukraine, which rejects the idea of giving Moscow territory, wants to stop the fighting along the front lines. The U.S. proposed a free-economic zone if Ukraine withdraws its troops. In recent weeks, U.S. negotiations focused on security assurances for a postwar Ukraine following a possible peace deal. However, some European officials have warned that Putin is unlikely to accept certain of the terms. After Russia accused Ukraine of attempting to undermine the talks last month, the talks have further been stalled. Attack on a residential property Kyiv has called the allegation that?Putin is a liar. Peskov stated that Moscow would invite Trump envoy Steve Witkoff, and Trump's son in law Jared Kushner for further talks about Ukraine after a date had been set. Dmitry Antonov reported; Lucy Papachristou wrote; Andrew Osborn edited.
Investors keep a wary eye on Greenland and Iran as gold prices steadily rise
Concerns over?U.S. policy prompted a reversal in gold prices on Thursday. Investors weighed the Iranian situation against President Donald Trump's focus of Greenland. As of 1200 GMT, spot gold was unchanged at $4,619.54 an ounce. Prices fell by almost 1% in the morning session as Trump's comment that he might pause military action against Iran weakened demand for safe-haven assets. Bullion reached a record of $4,642.72 Wednesday.
U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery fell by 0.3% to $4,623.80.
Fawad Rasaqzada is a market analyst for City Index and FOREX.com. He said that the price of gold was supported by concerns over?the situation? in Greenland.
Trump said on Wednesday that Denmark could not be relied upon to protect Greenland, and that the U.S. needed the island.
As a precaution, the United States began to withdraw some personnel from Middle East bases.
Trump told reporters at the White House that he was informed by Iranian officials that the crackdown against protests is easing. He adopted a wait and see attitude after threatening to intervene earlier.
Trump announced?on? Wednesday that he has decided to forgo imposing tariffs at this time on rare earths and lithium, as well as other essential minerals. He instead instructed his administration?to seek supplies from international trading partners.
Gold is a safe-haven asset that tends to perform well in times of economic and geopolitical?uncertainty as well as when interest rates are low.
The markets expect the U.S. Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged during its meeting on January 27-28, but are pricing in at least 2 25-basis point rate cuts this year.
Spot -silver fell 1.7% to $91.22 an ounce, after reaching a session high of $93.57.
Ole Hansen is the head of commodity strategy for Saxo Bank. He said that a normalization would see silver fall by 1/3 in relation to gold and raise the ratio (gold-silver to 70).
After reaching a record high of $2,478.50 per ounce on December 29, spot platinum fell 0.6%, to $2,369.02, while palladium dropped 1.1%, to $1,806.75. (Reporting and editing by Emelia Sithole Matarise in Bengaluru)
(source: Reuters)