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The morning bid is EUROPE: Fed, Big Tech, and Trump pageantry are the order of the day
Rae Wee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The markets are busy today with the Federal Reserve's key policy announcement, and earnings from Wall Street tech giants and Europe. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta will release their results after the bell. It is important that they deliver strong numbers to justify their high valuations. Asia stocks rose on Wednesday, thanks to a spillover effect from Wall Street. This optimism was fueled by Nvidia's announcement that it would build seven new supercomputers for U.S. Department of Energy. Microsoft has reached an agreement with OpenAI that allows it to restructure as a public benefit company while also giving Microsoft a 27% stake in ChatGPT. The AI boom is looking good for the moment, but there's still a big question: Is it headed towards a bubble? If there are any signs that demand has slowed or that massive spending has not paid off as expected, it could cause a rush to sell crowded stocks in Big Tech. Investors will be watching for further Fed easing in December. The ongoing U.S. shutdown has prevented the release of important economic data, at a time when there is uncertainty over the state of the U.S. employment market. However, signs of a cooling in labour conditions and softer-than-expected inflation could give policymakers the confidence to lower interest rates. The central bank will also be focusing on whether it finally ends its long-running program of balance sheet reduction, also known as quantitative tightening. The yen gained strength on other markets after U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent warned Tokyo to not keep the yen weak by allowing its central bank to raise rates. The Australian dollar climbed after data revealed that domestic consumer prices rose by the largest amount in two-and-a half years during the third quarter of 2009. A shockingly large increase in core inflation appeared to rule out any interest rate cuts in the near future. The U.S. president Donald Trump has a golf club to a golden crown. He landed in South Korea Wednesday, the last leg of his Asia tour. In bilateral talks, he will discuss trade and investment with South Korean president Lee Jae Myung. The presidential office announced that Lee would present Trump with a replica of a gold crown, and will also award him the "Grand Order of Mugunghwa", which is the highest decoration in the country. Trump arrived in South Korea after a visit to Tokyo where he praised Japan's first woman prime minister, Sanae Takayichi. He lauded her commitment to accelerating a military buildup, and welcomed the signing of deals on rare earths and trade. Takaichi gave Trump a putter that Shinzo Abe used, Trump's golfing partner and Japan's former leader. This was one of many references to Trump's relationship with Abe which anchored ties between both countries during Trump's first presidential term. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Wednesday. Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada Rate Decisions Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta earnings - Mercedes-Benz, UBS, Adidas, GSK, Airbus earnings
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Russia claims that Ukraine has targeted Moscow for the third night in a row with drones.
Russian authorities reported that Ukraine had sent drones to Moscow for a third night in a row and also targeted other Russian regions. The drones disrupted air traffic across the country, and threatened an industrial plant located in the south of Russia, they said. The Russian Defence Ministry announced on Telegram that Russian air defence units had destroyed 100 Ukrainian drones over the course of the night, including six in Moscow and thirteen over the bordering areas. Kyiv continued to launch long-range drone attacks on Moscow and other Russian regions over the past few months. The aim, according to Kyiv, was "to hit Russia's military and industrial assets and sap its war economy, and show Russians that the conflict is not far away." Sergei Sobyanin said that the attacks on Moscow were in waves. Rosaviatsiya, the Russian aviation watchdog, said that three of Moscow's airports and others in other parts of the country were temporarily closed for safety. Vladimir Vladimirov said that the governor of the Stavropol Region in Russia, Vladimir Vladimirov also reported on Telegram that Ukraine launched drones against the Budyonnovsk Industrial Zone. The Russian Defence Ministry said that its units shot down two drones in the area, which is located in the south of the country. Vladimirov, a Telegram user, said that the attack did not cause "significant" damages and there were also no casualties. Ukrainian media outlets, such as RBK Ukraine, claim that Kyiv has attacked the Stavrolen Chemical Plant in Budyonnovsk, a Russian Lukoil-owned plant. Stavrolen, according to Russian and Ukrainian press, is one of Russia’s largest producers of polyethylene (polypropylene) and polyethylene. Stavrolen's governor did not disclose what was attacked in Budyonnovsk. Stavropol Governor did not reveal what happened in Budyonnovsk. Russia usually does not provide much information about the impact of Ukrainian attacks on its territory, unless there are civilians or infrastructures that have been hit. The Russian Defence Ministry confirmed that 35 Ukrainian drones were destroyed by Russian units in the Moscow area over the two previous nights. No damage was reported.
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Cyclone Montha strikes India's East coast, killing one
Officials said that one person died on India's east coast when Cyclone Montha hit around midnight. Heavy rains and gusty wind also damaged crops and utility poles. The Indian weather service has predicted extremely heavy rains for coastal states Andhra Pradesh and Odisha on Wednesday, with gusts up to 90 km/h. The cyclone will likely weaken into a deep depression by the end of the day. Local officials reported that a 48-year old woman died in Andhra Pradesh’s Konaseema District after a palm fell on her. The government reported that as of Tuesday evening, more than 38,000 acres of crops were damaged, along with several power lines and utility posts in Andhra Pradesh. There are efforts underway to restore electricity in areas that have been affected by outages. A video from ANI in which we have a minor stake showed rescue workers in the state clearing uprooted trees and cleaning streets as rain continued. A notice revealed that the Tibet side of Mount Everest has stopped visitor access due to unseasonably heavy snowfall, caused by weather changes brought about by the cyclone. Reporting by Jatindra dash in Bhubaneswar and Rishika sadam in Hyderabad. Writing by Tanvi mehta. Editing by Edwina gibbs.
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Floods in Central Vietnam kill 9 and leave 5 others missing
The government reported on Wednesday that floods in central Vietnam caused by heavy rainfall records have resulted in the deaths of at least nine people. Five others are still missing. The government released a statement stating that six of the deaths occurred in Danang, which is home to the most popular beach in the country, and in the ancient town Hoi An. In a separate report, the government disaster agency stated that the floods had also inundated over 103,000 homes, mainly in the top tourist destinations of Hue, and Hoi An. Vietnam is susceptible to violent storms, which can be deadly. Flooding and storms are also common in Vietnam. This causes widespread damage to property. The former imperial capital Hue, listed by UNESCO, and the ancient city of Hoi An continue to be pounded with heavy rains, according to the agency. This comes after the rainfall in this area reached a record-high in a 24-hour period that ended late Monday night, surpassing 1,000 millimetres. Images circulated on state media showing that Hoi An was still inundated with floodwater, and several houses were submerged to the roofs. Hue was hit by flooding of up to 1-2 meters in 32 of the 40 communes. The government reported that water levels have continued to rise in the rivers and reservoirs of Danang. It said that "widespread flooding" continued in low-lying river banks and urban areas. There was also a high risk of flash floods, landslides and other natural disasters in the mountainous regions of Danang. The disaster agency reported that landslides had occurred in several places, blocking traffic and destroying power grids. It also said the state-run railway company has not yet been able resume services between the capital Hanoi, and the business hub Ho Chi Minh City, following a Tuesday suspension. According to the weather agency of the government, heavy rains will continue over central Vietnam for the next two weeks. Some areas are expected to receive rainfall above 400 millimetres between early Wednesday and late Thursday.
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Valaris Adds $190M in New Offshore Drilling and Wind Contracts
Offshore drilling contractor Valaris has secured a series of new contracts and extensions worth about $190 million in the North Sea and Middle East regions, lifting its total contract backlog to $4.5 billion.The latest awards include a mix of deepwater drilling and jack-up projects across Egypt and the UK North Sea, underscoring continued demand from both oil and gas and offshore wind clients.Valaris’s drillship VALARIS DS-12 was awarded a five-well contract by BP Exploration Delta Limited in Egypt, scheduled to begin in the second quarter of 2026. The work is expected to last around 350 days, with a total estimated value of $140 million, including a mobilization fee. The contract also provides three optional wells.In the UK North Sea, the company secured a series of jack-up rig extensions and new assignments. VALARIS 121 received a 194-day extension from Shell, beginning in February 2026 in direct continuation of its current work, adding over $25 million to the backlog.VALARIS Norway was granted a 150-day extension by Ithaca Energy, commencing in August 2026, with an estimated value of around $18 million.The company also expanded into the offshore wind segment, with VALARIS 248 contracted by GE Vernova to provide accommodation support services for a North Sea offshore wind project.The 120-day contract, starting November 2025, is valued at over $8 million and includes six priced options totaling 104 additional days.Separately, VALARIS 122 obtained two 28-day extensions from Shell for accommodation support, starting January 2026, with a combined value exceeding $6 million and one priced option remaining.Valaris said it also sold the jackup VALARIS 247 in August 2025 for cash proceeds of approximately $108 million.
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Gold prices rise ahead of Fed's decision; however, trade optimism limits the upside.
Gold prices rose a little on Wednesday ahead of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut that was widely expected, but easing U.S. China trade tensions held bullion in check. As of 0257 GMT spot gold rose 0.2% to $3,957.42 an ounce after falling to its lowest level since October 7 on Monday. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery eased 0.3%, to $3.971.20 an ounce. Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA, said: "The fuel behind this short-term gold correction is the readjustment from safe-haven instruments to more responsive instruments like global equities because of trade optimism." In the short term, gold is under pressure from both short-term leverage and technical levels being breached. The fundamentals of gold are still positive. Over the weekend, top Chinese and U.S. economists hammered out the framework for a trade agreement between U.S. president Donald Trump and his Chinese equivalent Xi Jinping. The deal would halt steeper American tariffs as well as Chinese controls on rare-earth exports. Trump and Xi will meet in South Korea Thursday. The progress in U.S. China trade talks has continued to sap the demand for safe-haven assets like gold. This pullback extended as tensions eased. The recent falls may offer central banks an opportunity to increase purchases," ANZ stated in a report. The Fed is widely anticipated to reduce interest rates by a quarter percentile point at its policy meeting that will take place on Wednesday. Investors are also watching for any future-oriented language from Fed chair Jerome Powell. At its Thursday policy meeting, the European Central Bank will likely leave interest rates unchanged. Gold that does not yield is a good investment in low interest rate environments and economic uncertainty. The gold price has risen by 52% in the past year, with a peak of $4381.21 reached on October 20. This was boosted by economic and geopolitical uncertainty, bets to lower rates, and central bank purchases. Other metals, such as platinum, palladium, and silver, also saw gains. Platinum rose 0.7% per ounce to $1.574.25 while palladium fell 0.7% at $1.391.07.
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Iron ore reaches two-week high before Trump-Xi Meeting
The iron ore futures price rose on Wednesday, for the third consecutive session. It reached its highest level in two weeks. This was boosted by optimism about a possible trade agreement between two of the world's largest economies. U.S. president Donald Trump, who is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on Thursday for a high-level meeting, has said that he anticipates reducing U.S. duties on Chinese products as a result of Beijing's promise to limit exports of fentanyl precursor chemicals. Analysts at brokerage Xinhu Futures stated in a report that the general risk sentiment has improved due to a easing of U.S. China trade tension. The most traded January iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange rose by 1.14%, to 798 Yuan ($112.03) per metric ton. It had previously reached its highest level since October 14, when it was 802 Yuan. On the Singapore Exchange, December benchmark iron ore rose 0.52%, to $106.3 per ton. The price of iron ore in December reached its highest level since October 14, at $106.65 a ton. Prices of the main steelmaking ingredient were also supported by the expectation that steel mills will restock in a hurry to meet production requirements after the end of production restrictions. A forecast for worsening air pollution forced steelmakers in certain northern regions, including the largest steelmaking hub Tangshan City, to begin implementing production controls on Monday. Vale, a Brazilian miner, said it was very optimistic about long-term demand for iron ore. Coke and other steelmaking materials, such as coking coal, both fell by 0.74% and 0.83%, respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange has seen a rise in most steel benchmarks. Rebar gained 0.48%; hot-rolled coils advanced 0.64%; wire rod grew 0.54%. Stainless steel was little altered.
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Australian shares fall after Q3 inflation data points to RBA rate holding next week
Australian shares fell on Wednesday, as banks continued to lose money and real estate stocks reversed their course. Local investors also sharply reduced bets that the central bank would cut rates next week following higher-than-expected third quarter inflation. By 0047 GMT the S&P/ASX 200 Index had fallen 0.6%, to 8,958.50 - below the psychologically important 9,000 point level. Early trade saw little change in the benchmark. The Australian Bureau of Statistics consumer price index (CPI), which measures prices for goods and services, rose by 1.3% during the third quarter. This was higher than expected at 1.1% due to rising housing and travel expenses. After the release of the data, the odds of a policy easing were significantly reduced. Investors now price in a 90% chance of the Reserve Bank of Australia holding the cash rate at 3.60%. Next week, on November 4, the RBA will decide on interest rates. The local stock exchange saw a drop of 1,1% in the banks, while the "Big Four' banks were down between 0,6% and 1,7%. Stockland Corporation, which is a peer company in the real estate sector, fell 2% and caused a 0.8% fall. The healthcare stocks dropped 2.6%. This was due to a drop of 4.8% in CSL shares, which fell for the second day running after the company announced on Tuesday that it would delay the U.S. separation of its Seqirus division. Iron ore prices rose following China's recent proposal to limit steelmaking capacity. BHP Mining rose by 0.7%. Woolworths shares rose 1.6% in the wake of an increase in sales for its first quarter, which exceeded market expectations. The benchmark S&P/NZX 50 Index in New Zealand rose 0.4%, to 13,462.37. (Reporting by Shivangi Lahiri in Bengaluru; Editing by Alan Barona)
Trump's Trade War as it Develops
The tariffs imposed by Donald Trump since his inauguration on January 20, 2017 have sent shockwaves through financial markets, and uncertainty has spread throughout the global economy.
This timeline shows the major events:
Trump imposes tariffs of 25% on Mexican imports, 10% on Chinese goods and most Canadian imports from February 1. He demands that they reduce the flow of illegal immigrants and fentanyl into the United States.
Trump agrees to a 30-day suspension of his tariff threat against Mexico and Canada in exchange for concessions made on border security and criminal enforcement. The U.S. doesn't reach a similar deal with China.
Trump delays tariffs until the Commerce Department confirms that systems and procedures are in place for processing low-cost packages from China and collecting tariff revenue.
Trump increases tariffs on aluminum and steel to 25%, "without any exceptions or exclusions".
March 3 - Trump announces that 25% tariffs will be imposed on imports from Mexico and Canada from March 4, and that all Chinese imports will face a 20% tariff on fentanyl.
After a phone call with General Motors, Ford and Stellantis' chairperson and CEOs, he agrees to defer tariffs on certain vehicles manufactured in Canada and Mexico for a month.
Trump exempts Canadian and Mexican goods under the North American Trade Pact from 25% tariffs for one month.
Trump announces a 25% import tariff on cars and light trucks.
April 2 - He announces global duties with a base of 10% on all imports, and significant higher duties for some of the United States biggest trading partners.
Trump suspends most of the country-specific tariffs he had imposed less than 24 hours before, following a financial market upheaval that resulted in trillions of dollars being wiped off bourses worldwide.
The 10% blanket duty on nearly all U.S. imported goods remains in place.
Trump has announced that he will increase the tariffs on Chinese imports from 104% to 125%, which was the level in effect the day before. The extra duties on Chinese products, including those related to fentanyl, will now be 145%.
April 13: The U.S. government grants exemptions from steep tariffs for smartphones, computers and other electronics imported from China.
In an effort to impose tariffs in both sectors, the Trump administration launched national security investigations under Section 232 of Trade Act of 1962 on imports of pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.
May 4, Trump imposes 100% tariffs on all films produced outside of the U.S.
May 9 - Trump announces a limited bilateral agreement with British Prime Minister Keir starmer that keeps 10% tariffs in place on British exports and modestly increases agricultural access to both countries. It also lowers U.S. prohibitive duties on British auto exports.
On May 12, the U.S. & China agreed to temporarily reduce reciprocal tariffs. The U.S. and China agree to temporarily reduce reciprocal tariffs.
May 13: The U.S. reduces the "de minimis", or low-value tariff, on China's shipments. Duties for items up to $800 are reduced to 54% instead of 120%.
May 23 - Trump announces he will recommend a 50% tariff on all goods imported from the European Union, starting June 1.
He warns Apple that it will face a 25% tariff on phones sold in the U.S. if they are manufactured outside the country.
Trump retracts his threat to impose 50% tariffs on EU imported goods, and agrees to extend the deadline to July 9 for negotiations. May 28 - The U.S. Trade Court blocks Trump's tariffs in an sweeping ruling, saying that the president exceeded his authority when he imposed duties across-the board on imports of U.S. trading partners.
The Trump administration has announced that it will appeal this ruling.
May 29: A federal appeals Court temporarily reinstates Trump's most comprehensive tariffs. The court suspends its ruling in order to hear the government's appeal. It also orders that the plaintiffs and administration respond to the court by June 5, and by June 9, respectively.
Trump signs a proclamation on June 3, triggering a tariff increase of 50% to 25% for imported steel and aluminium.
Trump warns he could soon increase auto tariffs. He argues that this would encourage automakers to accelerate U.S. investment.
Trump announces a 20% tariff for many Vietnamese exports. Trans-shipments through Vietnam from other countries will be subject to a 40% tax.
Trump said on Truth Social, July 6, that countries who align themselves with the "Anti-American Policies" of BRICS would be charged an extra 10% tariff.
Trump on Truth Social: The additional duties announced earlier in the year will be delayed to August 1 as the U.S. completes several trade agreements.
In letters to 14 countries, including Japan, South Korea, and Serbia, he said he would introduce tariffs between 25 and 40 percent from August 1.
Trump announces that the U.S. is going to impose a tariff of 35% on Canadian imports next month. He also plans to impose tariffs blankets of 15% or 20 % on other trading partners. (Compiled in Gdansk by Paolo Laudani, Mateusz Rabiega, and Lincoln Feast; edited by Milla Nissi, Jamie Freed and Matt Scuffham.)
(source: Reuters)