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Russell: Gold is showing signs of consolidation, as investments ease. But Trump is looming.

The gold price has stabilized after surging up to a new record high. There are early signs of consolidation, following the rally sparked by fears over U.S. president Donald Trump's policies on trade.

The price of gold slipped to $3,287.72 per ounce, down 6.1% compared with the previous peak, which was $3,500.05, reached on April 22.

Spot gold has still risen 30% since its low price of $2,536.71 per ounce in November 2014, the day after Trump won the election over former Vice President Kamala Harris.

World Gold Council data shows that investment flows have driven the rally, mostly due to fears that Trump's tariffs will hit the global economy hard, and cause inflation in the United States.

The WGC reported that total gold investment flow soared by 170% during the first quarter 2025 compared to the same period one year prior, reaching 552 tons. This is the highest level since the first three months of 2022.

The demand for exchange-traded fund (ETF) increased dramatically in the first three months of this year, from 18.7 tons to 226.5 tons. This is a huge increase from the 113 tons sold in the first third of last.

The first quarter saw a 3% increase in physical coin and bar purchases, compared to the same period last year.

The increase in investment flows more than offset the decline in gold's major drivers. Central bank purchases fell 21% to 243.7 tonnes in the first three months, and jewellery production dropped 19% to 434 tonnes.

High prices are likely to have played a part in depressing demand for jewellery, particularly in China and India.

The WGC report stated that China's demand for jewellery dropped by 32% from the same period of 2024 in the first quarter to 125.3 tonnes, and India's fell by 25% to 71.4 tonnes, the lowest since the third quarter 2020.

The market will be able to tell if the Trump-inspired flight towards safety, which was fueled by investment, has run its course or if the gold rally is still going strong.

FLOWS ARE EASING

The largest gold ETF SPDR Trust has shown a modest drop in holdings after reaching a high of 31 months in April.

The SPDR reported that its holdings fell to 30,36 million ounces Wednesday, down from a peak of 30.84 millions ounces in April 2017.

This retreat could be due to signs that Trump's administration is reversing its tariff war on the rest of world, except for China, which is its biggest trading partner.

Officials in the administration have discussed the possibility of announcements soon with certain trading partners. Trump has also said that he expects a de-escalation to occur with China, even though there is still no evidence this is happening, and the 145% import tariff remains in place.

For now, it is possible that most investors who wanted more exposure to gold did so. To get them to buy again would require further alarming news.

It could be in many different forms. For example, it could be a sign that the trade talks are mostly ineffective, and that tariffs will continue to remain. This is a possibility, given that the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" announced by Trump on 2 April are only on hold for 90 days.

Investors may also revalue U.S. assets if the U.S. Congress passes significant income tax cuts that are skewed towards the wealthy. This is due to fears about rising fiscal deficits.

While Trump has backtracked on his threats to fire Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell, there is still a risk that a Trump lackey will be appointed to the position when Powell's tenure expires in the next year. This could keep gold as a viable investment option.

The trading pattern of gold over the last two decades was dominated by a period of rallying followed by years of consolidation.

The current rally is unusually strong and rapid, raising the possibility of a pullback prior to a consolidation period.

The world economy is in largely uncharted waters as Trump blows up the global trading system. This will most likely come at a cost, not only to Trump's own economy but to all others.

Gold will continue to rise if the bad news continues. However, it is also vulnerable to any change in U.S. policies that may return to normalcy.

These are the views of a columnist who writes for.

(source: Reuters)