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Gold drops as risk appetite wanes on Trump's tariff clarification
Gold prices dropped on Friday, as investors reassessed risk in light of U.S. president Donald Trump's new tariffs. These measures have clarified market trends and raised concerns about economic slowdown. As of 0305 GMT, spot gold was down by 0.5%, at $3,097.99 per ounce. Gold was still on course for a five-week gain. Its safe-haven appeal helped gold reach three records this week. U.S. Gold Futures declined by 0.1% to $3.118.90. Gold dropped by more than 2% in the previous session as traders were weighed down by a wider market decline sparked Trump's tariffs on imports. This sharp drop came only hours after the record-breaking gold price of $3167.57. Ilya Spirak, global macro head at Tastylive, said that gold tends rally during times of uncertainty and difficulty in pricing. However, once the markets have learned how to value the risks involved the support tends to fade. The Trump administration has chosen a path that is less contested and more visible. It's also easier to price. This is reducing some of the "market confusion premium" on gold. Trump announced that he would impose an initial 10% tariff on all imports into the U.S., and a higher duty on some of America's largest trading partners. Tariffs sparked fears that prices would rise dramatically in the largest consumer market. Analysts said that Federal Reserve officials who were seeking more information on Trump's plans for trade got more than they expected when he announced sweeping tariffs. They noted that this could drastically reshuffle the outlook of the country's economy. The market is now awaiting the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report, which may provide insight into the Fed's rate path. Spot silver fell 1% to $11.56 per ounce. Platinum dropped 0.6% at $946.40 and palladium declined 0.8% at $920.75.
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London copper to suffer its biggest weekly loss for nearly five months due to US tariffs
After U.S. president Donald Trump announced an extensive set of tariffs that dampened the outlook for global metal demand, copper prices fell in London on Friday. The London Metal Exchange's three-month copper contract fell 0.75%, to $9296.5 per ton at 0234 GMT. The contract is on track for its largest weekly loss since early November. It has lost 5% thus far. ANZ analysts wrote in a report that the prospect of a trade war around the world and a weaker economy should continue to put downward pressure on commodities markets. ANZ warned that these concerns would worsen if the countries impacted retaliated with their own tariffs, resulting in a global war of trade. Trump announced a set of tariffs that targeted China and other major trading partners. Beijing announced on Thursday that it would take countermeasures against the new tariff of 34%. This will bring the total to 54%. The White House did not include copper. For this metal, the U.S. Administration is conducting a separate investigation into possible new tariffs. The reciprocal tariffs will not apply to certain minerals not available in the U.S. The exclusions included zinc and tin. ING analysts said that despite the fact that base metals are exempt from the new tariffs, the concern about how the new tariffs will affect the demand for raw materials has weighed on the sentiment. Other metals include LME aluminium, which fell by 0.37%, to $2.439 per ton. Lead also dropped 0.23%, to $1.951. Zinc edged lower by 0.07%, to $2.711.5. Tin was down 1.64%, at $36,720, and nickel eased 0.8%, at $15.720 per ton. China's financial market is closed for the public holiday on Friday. Trading will resume Monday, April 7. Click here to see the latest news in metals, and other topics. (Reporting by Michele Pek. Editing by Eileen Soreng).
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Rio Tinto and BHP give in to union pressure over benefits for Pilbara workers
A mining union in Australia said that it had secured important financial benefits for its employees working in the iron rich Pilbara region, including compensation for flight delays and bonuses. The Mining and Energy Union said that Rio Tinto will compensate "Fly-In-Fly-Out" workers who are heading home for delays of more than four hours with A$500 (313.55) and A$1,000 (for delays over 12 hours). The amendment was made after more than 400 Rio Tinto workers from the Paraburdoo Iron Ore Project signed a petition of the Western Mine Workers Alliance to begin bargaining for a new collective agreement. This is the first time that has been done in over 20 years. The website of Rio Tinto revealed that the Paraburdoo Mine is part Rio Tinto’s Western Australian operations and has around 16,000 workers. The WMWA was created by the Australian Workers' Union in conjunction with the MEU. It said that the Fair Work Commission, the industrial relations tribunal was currently assessing the support petition. Rio Tinto would be forced to negotiate if the FWC granted orders for collective bargaining. The iron ore miner has also agreed to fully fund national FIFO up to 30 percent of their rail crew employees and to increase the on-the-job training allowance to A$7.500 per year from A$5.600. It said that the MEU had also negotiated retention bonuses of A$10 500 for all BHP rail crew, regardless of their class. Rio Tinto and BHP have not responded to requests for comment. ($1 = 1.5946 Australian dollars) (Reporting by Rajasik Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich)
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Oil to have worst week for months due to Trump's new tariffs
Oil prices continued to fall in early Asian trading on Friday. They were on course for their worst week in several months due to U.S. president Donald Trump's tariffs. This stoked concerns about a possible global trade war, which could impact oil demand. Brent futures were down 31 cents or 0.4% to $69.83 per barrel at 0157 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures fell 32 cents or 0.5% to $66.63. Brent is on track to suffer its largest weekly percentage loss since the week ending October 14 and WTI since January 21. The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+), which is a group of oil-producing countries and their allies, has decided to move forward with their plan to increase the amount of oil produced. They now aim to return 411, 000 barrels per day in May instead of the 135,000 bpd originally planned. This brings forward the surplus we expect to see on the oil market in this year. Analysts at ING stated on Friday that more OPEC+ production should lead to a greater medium sour crude and a larger Brent-Dubai differential. This spread has been at a discount unusual for most of the year. Since Trump's Wednesday afternoon news conference, which he called 'Liberation Day' as he announced an initial 10% tariff on all imported goods to the United States along with higher duties for dozens of its biggest trading partners, both benchmarks have started falling. The new tariffs on imports of refined products, oil and gas were not applied to these products. However, the policy could increase inflation, slow down economic growth, and intensify trade conflicts, which would impact oil prices. Reporting by Sudarshan Varadhan. Gerry Doyle edited the story.
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Dollar and shares tumble as Trump tariffs cause recession fears
The stock market limped into the weekend on Friday. The dollar was headed for its worst month-end in a while, and gold flirted near a record high as investors worried that U.S. president Donald Trump's tariffs could tip the global economic system into recession. Asian shares have struggled to recover the heavy losses of Thursday's session. The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell by 1.85%. This is a continuation of its 2.8% decline from last Thursday. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan fell 0.26% on thin trading, as markets in China Hong Kong and Taiwan were closed for the holiday. Overnight, the S&P 500 lost $2.4 trillion, which is their largest one-day drop since the global coronavirus outbreak on March 16, 2020. Other Wall Street indexes also saw sharp drops. Investors rushed to safety assets after Trump announced Washington's highest trade barriers in over 100 years on Wednesday. David Bahnsen is the chief investment officer of The Bahnsen Group. He said that if tariffs remain unchanged, a recession in Q2 or Q3 is possible as well as a bear market. The question is whether President Trump wants to take these policies off the table if we experience a stock market bear market. We think Trump will pivot and focus on companies making significant investments in America, but it is unclear if that would change the market sentiment. U.S. Stock Futures stabilized during the early Asian session. Nasdaq futures rose 0.05% while S&P500 futures declined 0.06%. In response to the increased fears of a global economic recession, especially in the United States of America, traders have stepped up their bets on more Federal Reserve rate reductions this year. They believe that policymakers will have to ease up more aggressively in order to boost growth in the largest economy in the world. Fed funds futures point to a roughly 96 basis point reduction by December. This was closer to 70 bps just before Trump announced his tariffs on Wednesday. David Doyle, Macquarie Group's head of economics, said that central banks were not equipped to handle stagflation because the effects of lower growth and higher inflation push policy in opposite directions. This means that a stronger core inflation will likely limit the extent of the Fed's policy response due to the headwinds for growth created." Investors will be watching for Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Friday. They are interested in his assessment of the U.S. economic situation and the outlook on policy following Trump's latest tariff salvo. The dollar rose 0.09% to 146.23 yen on the foreign exchange markets, after falling 2.2% the previous day, its steepest drop in over two years. The euro remained at $1.1043 following a 1.9% increase on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc was last at $0.8591 after also gaining 2.6% on that day. The dollar was at 102.04 against a basket. This is a new six-month low. The U.S. Dollar has been weakening this year due to a combination of heavy long positions built up at the end of last year and the renewed focus on U.S. economic growth risks, which have accompanied the tariff talks for weeks. Bond prices have also soared as investors flee to safe assets. The 10-year U.S. Treasury benchmark yield, which had fallen by 14 basis points in the previous session, was little changed last week at 4.0436%. Bond yields are inversely related to bond prices. Spot gold, meanwhile, was nearing a record high of $3,112,81 per ounce and on course for a fifth consecutive weekly gain as concerns about the impact Trump's tariffs would have on the global economic system boosted its appeal as a safe-haven metal. Brent crude futures were down 0.13% to $70.05 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude futures dropped 0.15% at $66.85 a barrel.
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Mexico's 'cool-headed approach' to Trump's Tariffs has paid off
Mexico's "coolheaded" approach towards U.S. president Donald Trump's tariff offense has paid off with preferential treatment and a strong working relationship with Trump's trade team this week, Mexico's deputy economic secretary said on Thursday. Luis Rosendo Gutierrez said that the undersecretary of international trade for Mexico, Luis Rosendo Gutierrez stated in an interview, that Mexican officials would meet with U.S. Trade Rep Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick next week to discuss U.S. Tariffs on Auto Imports, Steel and Aluminum, and their state. The U.S., Mexico and Canada Agreement (which has been in place for nearly five years) will also be reviewed. Gutierrez stated that "the instruction from President Claudia Sheinbaum is to work closely with the United States Government looking for fair and preferential treatments, and be cool-headed in doing so." "I think this strategy was the best. "To be close, constructive and to make proposals to the United States." Mexico and Canada largely avoided Trump's 10% global baseline tariff on Wednesday, as well as the steeper "reciprocal" tariffs for many trading partners. Mexico still faces a 25% tariff on fentanyl, but the exemption for USMCA compliant goods has been extended indefinitely. If the fentanyl issue is resolved, these tariffs will fall to 12%. Mexico is still subject to separate 25% tariffs on autos and auto parts, but without U.S. content. And 25% duties on steel imports. Mexico, unlike Canada, has not taken retaliatory actions against U.S. imports as part of the trade dispute. Instead, it prefers to engage in a more constructive dialogue. Mark Carney, the Canadian Prime Minister, announced on Thursday limited countermeasures to about $25 billion of U.S. imported goods. Gutierrez stated, "We would love to see these tariffs reduced." "We need to negotiate in order to try and improve conditions not only for Mexico but also for the United States. This idea will be complementary to our economies." He said that at the meetings next week, Mexican officials will bring up USMCA letters that were agreed upon by Trump's previous administration. These side letters granted Mexico and Canada generous duty-free auto import quotas in case Section 232 tariffs on automobiles are imposed. Trump's administration does not plan to honor its commitments. (Reporting and editing by Sandra Maler, Chris Reese and David Lawder)
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Prince William of the UK takes his Earthshot Prize on a trip to Brazil
Prince William of Britain announced on Friday, in the presence of celebrities and soccer players, that he will take his annual award ceremony for a multi-million dollar prize for environmental protection to Brazil this coming year. In 2020, the heir to the throne announced the Earthshot Prize with the goal of making significant progress towards solving environmental problems in a decade. The "moonshot project" of former U.S. president John F. Kennedy, which led to 1969's lunar landing, is a nod to this award, which seeks to find innovative solutions to climate change and other environmental issues. Five winners will receive 1 million pounds ($1.3million) each for their projects. The awards ceremony for this year will take place shortly before the UN Climate Summit COP30, which is also taking place in Brazil in Nov. William announced in a video that accompanied the announcement, "I am pleased to announce that we will be in Brazil by 2025." "We need to be optimistic now more than ever. I think Brazil is the perfect example of that. I can't even believe we have reached half-way in 10 years." The previous award ceremonies were held in London and Boston. They were supported by philanthropists and global organisations. The Earthshot video also featured the actress Cate Blankhett, the model Heidi Klum and Brazil's most-capped soccer player Cafu. Beckham stated, "I am so, so excited about (Brazil), where nature and culture are intertwined." (Reporting and editing by William James; Michael Holden)
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Elliott says Phillips 66 shares could reach $200 if there are changes
Elliott Investment Management stated on Thursday that Phillips 66 stock could almost double to $200 if it sold or spun off its midstream businesses, and focused more on refining. The activist investor who owns a stake of $2.5 billion in the company has also reduced the number to four directors that it intends to nominate for the board. Previously, the number was seven. Phillips 66, in a letter to shareholders published in a regulatory filing on Thursday, wrote: "With resolute action and decisive actions, Phillips 66 will deliver much greater returns to its shareholders than they have in the past decade." The hedge fund said that "sweeping changes" are also needed to the company’s structure, operations and board. Elliott nominated 7 director candidates for the board at the beginning of March, but had planned to reduce that number to 4, according to a person with knowledge in the matter. Investors will vote for directors on the 21st of May unless both sides come to an agreement prior. Candidates include former ConocoPhillips executives Sigmund and Brian Coffman; Michael Heim, founder of midstream operator Targa Resources, and Stacy Nieuwoudt. Nieuwoudt was a former energy consultant at Citadel. Elliott stated that new independent directors were needed to oversee management better and to persuade BP to sell or spin off its midstream business in order to concentrate on refining. The company has also been criticized for its governance in which not all directors are elected annually. The company refused to comment. Phillips 66's shares closed at $107.18, down 13.6% after a widespread sell-off on Wall Street. The company now has a $43.7 billion market value. Elliott reiterated his long-held opinion that the midstream business should be spun off or sold. The letter also suggested that retail operations in Europe and its interest in CPChem (a joint venture between Chevron and CPChem) should be sold. Elliott is fighting Phillips 66 for the second time after pushing for strategic improvements late in 2023. The hedge fund approved the appointment of Robert Pease as a director to the company's board in early 2024. The tensions between the activist investor and the director have now escalated after Pease, in a letter sent to shareholders last Thursday, defended the performance of the company and referred to Elliott's actions as "inconsistent" and "peculiar." The hedge fund wants to replace him by the candidates that it nominated in this year. In a letter sent to its shareholders on Thursday, Elliott said that it was confused after Pease failed to follow the best governance practices he had promised the hedge fund. It said that it had been patient with Phillips 66, and only approached the company anew after failing to see "demonstrable improvements." Reporting by Svea Autumn-Bayliss and Vallari Srivastava, both in New York; editing by Shrey Biswas and Jamie Freed
Trump's tariffs dim the safe-haven shine of the dollar
Investors are avoiding the dollar as a safe place to store money during turbulent times. They are worried about tariffs, and their effect on U.S. economic growth.
U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Wednesday far more extensive and larger tariffs against roughly 60 countries. These included massive tariffs against China and its biggest trading partners.
As equity markets trembled over the tariff news, the dollar fell broadly.
Take a look at how the dollar compares to other safe havens.
1/ GREENBACK TAKS BACKSEAT
Dollar has lost its luster as a safe investment option, mainly because of domestic turmoil caused by Trump's tariffs. These have increased the risk of an American recession.
Both the S&P 500 and the dollar have been falling recently. This is a sign that the dollar has not benefited from the safe-haven flow.
Van Luu is the Russell Investments' head of currency strategy and fixed income. He said, "I used to think that the yen, the Swiss franc, and the dollar were the safest currencies. Now I am beginning to change my mind."
The dollar index is down nearly 4% and has had the worst year start since 2016, according to LSEG.
It seems investors are yet to price in recession risk, which is why dollar weakness persists as capital continues to flow out of U.S. investments amid the fading economic exceptionalalism, said Rong Ren Goh. He is a portfolio manager at Eastspring Investments, Singapore's fixed income team.
While Trump's loose economic policies have hurt the dollar's reputation as a safe-haven currency, some investors believe it will eventually regain its appeal as global growth slows.
GOLDEN HISTORY
Gold has been a safe haven asset since before any financial system.
Gold tends to increase in value as investor anxieties rise. The 1970s energy crises, 1980 U.S. economic recession, 2007-08 global financial crash, and the COVID pandemic of 2020 have all seen a rise of the price of gold.
Gold has almost doubled over the last two-and-a half years, reaching all time highs of $3,000 per ounce.
Central banks, retail investors and portfolio managers have all bought gold to protect themselves against inflation spikes that were caused by the COVID crises and the subsequent global energy crisis. They continued to buy gold even when inflation began to ease. With Trump's isolationist policies, many are buying gold to replace the dollar.
FIGHTING BACK
The yen, the Japanese currency, is one of the most popular currencies that benefits from safe-haven flows. It usually performs well during times when stock prices are falling.
The yen had its best day ever against the dollar on Wednesday. It has risen almost 7% this year. Meanwhile, another safe haven, the Swiss Franc, has gained more than 4%.
Justin Onuekwusi is chief investment officer of investment firm St. James's Place. He said, "The yen gains if the S&P index is volatile. That's something we've been more inclined to tilt towards."
4/ GET DEFENSIVE
Stocks are often hard hit by recessions and financial crises. Investors make money by grabbing their cash and running for safety. Most investors cannot give up on the equity market, and so they will tend to buy stocks that are expected to weather recessions well. These include drugmakers, utilities, and food and beverage companies.
Over the past 25 years, defensive stocks, those that are more closely tied to the global economy such as technology and mining stocks, have consistently outperformed cyclical shares.
Even though there is no immediate recession in sight, a global basket of defensive stocks has dropped less since Trump's election victory than a basket cyclicals that had been boosted by expensive tech and AI shares, reflecting investor caution.
5/ BETTING BONDS
For now, renewed tariff anxiety has reduced the pressure on government bonds, which typically benefit from flows to safe-haven assets during times of global stress.
Germany's benchmark Bund yield has dropped from the five-month highs reached last month. This is due to expectations that an increase in German spending would lead to a rise in bond sales.
The 10-year Treasury yields in the United States are set to have their largest weekly decline in five weeks, with yields down by more than 10 basis point on Wednesday alone.
But it's true that not all of this has been driven by a desire for safety. Tariff concerns have also increased recession risks, and the likelihood of further global rate cuts. This is a background that usually benefits bonds.
Eric Clark, portfolio director at Alpha Brands, San Diego, said that he still believes this chaos was created to create panic. The uncertainty is driving yields lower at a time when demand is high for our debt, allowing us refinance $4 trillion to 5 trillion dollars at better rates.
(source: Reuters)