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Sources say that Congo and Rwanda will sign an agreement in the US on a peace path amid talks about minerals
Sources have confirmed that Congo and Rwanda will sign an agreement on Friday in Washington to promote economic and peace development. This is part of a diplomatic effort to end violence following an offensive by Rwandan-backed insurgents in eastern Congo. Both countries hope to gain significant U.S. investment in minerals. The agreement gives rise to hopes that the latest violence cycle in a conflict rooted decades ago in the Rwandan genocide will ease. Previous ceasefire calls did not result in a lasting break in fighting. Both countries' foreign ministries are expected to sign the agreement at a signing ceremony alongside U.S. State Secretary Marco Rubio. Washington is in negotiations to invest billions in Congo's mineral deposits, including copper, cobalt, and lithium. These minerals are used in cars and mobile phones. Rwanda announced this week that it is also in talks with Washington regarding a potential minerals deal. The violence in Congo has increased since the M23 rebels, backed by Rwanda, launched a major assault in January. This led to the capture two of the largest cities in eastern Congo. According to the United Nations and Western governments, Rwanda provided weapons and troops for M23. Rwanda denies supporting M23, and claims its military acted in self defense against Congo's Army and a militia formed by perpetrators from the 1994 genocide. Qatar and the U.S. both have expressed an interest in a mediated resolution. Qatar mediated a surprise meeting between Congolese president Felix Tshisekedi, and his Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagame in March. The two leaders demanded a ceasefire. Qatar also hosted talks between Congo, M23 and other parties. This week both sides released a joint statement in which they pledged to work for peace and express their "commitment" to an immediate cessation to hostilities. 'VERY BROAD' According to a diplomatic source, the agreement that will be signed this Friday is intended to promote a "pathway towards peace, stability and integrated economic growth" in eastern Congo, as well as "the return of normal bilateral relationships". According to a second source, the agreement was designed to boost investor confidence. One diplomatic source described it as "a declaration or principles" - a set of very broad goals to strive for. Both sides will finalize specifics within a few month and, hopefully, an agreement for peace will be signed." The Trump administration has taken a special interest in Congo since a Congolese senator contacted U.S. officials to pitch a minerals-for-security deal this year. Washington wants to increase access to minerals, which are currently dominated by China and Chinese mining companies. The State Department said that the U.S. was interested in a deal and expected any agreement to include a variety of private sector partners. Erik Prince, a prominent Trump supporter who has agreed to help the Congo tax and secure its mineral wealth earlier this year, is already positioned to back a partnership. (Ange Kasongo contributed additional reporting; Jessica Donati wrote the article; Robbie Corey Boulet, Alison Williams and Alexandra Hudson edited it.)
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ILZSG: Global markets for refined zinc and lead will face surpluses by 2025.
International Lead and Zinc Study Group said that the global refined zinc and led market will be surplus this year. The group estimates that the global supply will surpass demand for refined zinc by 93,000 metric tons and 82,000 metric tonnes in 2025. The group predicted that global demand for lead refined will increase by 1.5% in 2025 to 13,19 million tons, and output would rise 1.9%, to 13,27 million tons, due to growth in China, India Mexico, and the United States. Global demand for refined zinc is expected to increase by 1% this year to 13,64 million tonnes, while production will grow by 1.8% up to 13,73 million tons as a result of increased availability. The group reported that after declining in the past three year due to planned and unplanned mine closures the mined zinc production is expected to increase by 4.3%, to 12,43 million tons, in 2025. On Friday, zinc was trading at around $2,670 per ton, while lead was around $1,955. (Reporting and editing by Toby Chopra, David Goodman and Anushree Patel in Bengaluru)
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British currency risk management firm Argentex names new interim CEO
Argentex, a FX company, replaced its CEO on Friday and appointed its chief operating office as interim CEO. This comes at a time of liquidity crisis due to the ongoing turmoil in the financial markets. Argentex announced late on Thursday that it is in advanced discussions to be acquired for 2.49 pence a share by cross-border payment provider IFX Payments. This would value the company at approximately 3 million pounds ($3.99m). The company had revealed the discussions earlier in the week as well as possible emergency funding, while it battles against the whipsawing currency market. It also announced on Thursday that it would be seeking additional liquidity support in the coming week. The London-listed firm is one of the earliest casualties in a prolonged bout of market turmoil. The company had suspended trading of its shares on April 22, following sharp drops in the U.S. Dollar, due to trade tensions between President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. This spooked many investors into selling U.S. assets. Argentex announced on Friday that CEO Jim Ormonde has left the company with immediate effect. COO Tim Rudman was appointed interim chief. Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala, Simone Lobo, Dhanush Vignesh Baby in Bengaluru.
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Minister: India is trying to increase access for steel exports via FTA negotiations
Piyush Goyal, the federal trade minister, said that India was trying to increase access to its steel exports by negotiating free trade agreements with other countries. Goyal, speaking at an industry conference in Mumbai, said: "I'm working on at least ten to twelve FTAs with countries and blocks of countries such as the European Union... In every one of these we are looking at how we can gain greater access for our high-quality and cost-effective steel sector." India is negotiating multiple trade agreements with trading partners including the United States and European Union. This comes as Asia's largest economy, the third-largest in Asia, resets its global terms of trading under the shadows of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which are on-and-off again. Fears of global market disruptions have been sparked by uncertainty surrounding U.S. Tariffs. Minister Goyal has urged domestic mills to safeguard their supply chains in the face of increasing imports of metallurgical coke, an important ingredient for steelmaking. New Delhi began an investigation into anti-dumping practices in the import of metallurgical coke from countries like Australia, China and Russia. (Reporting by Neha Arora in Mumbai and Hritam Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala)
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Swiss central bank faces protests over its investments
The Swiss National Bank AGM was protested by environmentalists on Friday. They urged the central bank not to invest in companies that they claim contribute to the destruction of the environment, such as the Amazon rainforest or Brazil's Cerrado Savannah. The protests in Bern were aimed at the SNB holdings of firms that had been identified by a University College London study as "Environmental Tipping Point" companies - corporations whose actions they claim cause irreversible environmental damage. The campaigners gathered outside the shareholders meeting of SNB with banners saying, "Deforestation Is Not A Swiss Value" and placards with an image mocking up SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel with a speech balloon saying "burn baby Burn." Activists called for stricter exclusion criteria to be applied to the SNB's investment and demanded that the central bank use its influence as an investor to influence the behaviour of companies. They said that the central bank should divest if companies fail to comply with SNB guidelines, which prohibit them from purchasing securities in companies who cause severe environmental damages. Asti Roesle, Climate Alliance Switzerland, said: "If the SNB ignores environmental and climate risks in its monetary decision-making process, it acts shortsightedly and fails to fulfill its duty to protect future generation." She said that the climate change has already visible impacts on Switzerland, such as melting glaciers and destructive storms causing landslides. Roesle said that the SNB, which is expected to address the shareholders at the meeting due to the size of its equity investments, could have a significant impact due to the fact that about 25% its 756 billion Swiss Francs ($914 Billion) in foreign reserve are held in global shares. The SNB has a passive, market-neutral investment strategy. It is not mandated by the Swiss government to influence the development of certain economic sectors. Instead, it focuses primarily on controlling inflation. In its sustainability report, it states that it excludes companies who severely harm the environment or violate human rights. The report also excludes coal mining companies. Critics say this is not enough and they want a similar approach to Norway's sovereign fund, which informs companies of its climate change expectations as well as votes on the subject. Guillaume Durin, from BreakFree, a Swiss climate group, said that the SNB still invests in companies which cause climate damage. Durin stated that "the SNB doesn't respect its own rules." As a passive investor the SNB is complicit in the destruction of ecosystems that are critical to the balance of the planet. $1 = 0.8275 Swiss Francs (Reporting and Editing by William Maclean, William Revill)
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India is considering allowing foreign ownership of nuclear power plants to reach 49%
Three government sources have said that India may allow foreign companies to own up to 49 percent of its nuclear power plants. This is as New Delhi prepares plans to open its most closely guarded industry to achieve its goals of reducing carbon emissions. Since 2023, the government has been considering changing its nuclear foreign investments framework. India is attempting to replace coal-based energy with more environmentally friendly sources of energy. The officials did not know if the investment in this sector would lead to tariff negotiations with the United States. A 2008 civil nuclear agreement between the United States and Canada allowed for many billions of dollar deals with U.S. firms. However, the companies have been discouraged by the possibility of an unlimited liability in the event of an accident. No foreign investment is allowed in India's nucleonic plants. The latest proposals, along with plans to relax nuclear liability laws and to allow domestic private actors to enter the sector, could remove impediments for government goals to expand nuclear energy capacity by 12 to 100 gigawatts in 2047. Sources said that any foreign nuclear investment would require government approval prior to being allowed. India's Finance Ministry, Department of Atomic Energy and Prime Minister's Office did not reply to our questions. The three sources requested anonymity because their proposals are still being considered. The government said that it would likely bring the necessary changes to the federal cabinet in the near future and that they hoped to pass the amendments to both the Atomic Energy Act of 1960 and the Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Act of 2010. The three sources claimed that amendments to the Atomic Energy Act will allow the government issue licenses to private companies for the construction, ownership and operation of a plant, as well as the mining and manufacturing of atomic fuel. GOVERNMENT MONOPOLY The government controls just 8 GW of nuclear power in India, which is 2% the installed capacity. In order to meet the high demand for energy at night, the country is looking to complement wind and solar energy with atomic power. The atomic department said that foreign companies such as Westinghouse Electric and GE-Hitachi were interested in taking part in nuclear power projects in the country as technology partners, contractors, suppliers and service providers. Indian conglomerates such as Reliance Industries, Tata Power and Adani Power have held talks with the government about investing around $26 billion into the nuclear energy sector. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Sarita Chaganti-Singh)
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Dollar and stocks are both on the rise this week as a result of hints about tariff relief
Investors were encouraged by signs that the U.S. was willing to end its trade war with China. The dollar also rose for the first time in over a month. The benchmark STOXX Index in Europe rose 0.3% amid hopes for a easing of trade tensions. It was also boosted by positive earnings reports, from the Finnish forestry company Stora Enso and French jet engine manufacturer Safran. U.S. Futures also climbed as tech giant Alphabet, the parent company of Google, beat profit expectations. It also reaffirmed AI expenditure targets. This pushed its shares up by nearly 5% after-hours and pulled along other peers. The dollar, after a turbulent few weeks of tariff announcements and reversals, and flight from U.S. assets found its footing at around $1.1330 for the euro and 143.4 Japaneseyen. Eli Lee, Chief Investment Strategist at Bank of Singapore said that the peak of tariff threats is likely to be behind us. Both sides have stated that they will not increase rates above current levels. The tit-for-tat tariffs, which began on April 2, when U.S. president Donald Trump announced hefty import duties, had threatened to stall the trade between two of the world's largest economies. They also sparked concerns of a global slowdown. The U.S. changed its tone this week and declared that the current situation is unsustainable. China, meanwhile, may exempt some U.S. imported goods from the 125% tariffs, in what could be the most significant sign of Beijing's concern about the potential economic consequences. UNEASY CALM Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 1%, and mainland China’s Shanghai Composite Index and blue-chip CSI300 also saw small gains. The Nikkei 225 index rose 1.8% in Japan on Friday. It has recovered all of its losses following Trump's announcement that the United States would be imposing the highest tariffs it had ever seen. Trump suspended most of these tariffs, with the exception of China, which will have a 10% tariff. In a client note, ING currency analyst Francesco Pesole said that there is a sense among market participants that they can now impose a more favourable stance from the U.S. Government. Investors will seek confirmation of a more optimistic view on U.S. Assets to justify further dollar gains. The U.S. Dollar Index was up 0.2% this week to 99.623. WARNING SIGNAGE There were plenty of warnings that the calm on the surface may not last. Procter & Gamble cut their forecasts or canceled them due to the increased uncertainty of consumers. Gold was steady at $3,296 per ounce, and analysts from Phillip Securities in Singapore noted that the Gold/S&P500 ratio, which is a measure of investor's gloom, had reached its highest level since the bear market driven by the pandemic of 2020. The 10-year yields remained at 4.30%, easing the pressure on the U.S. Treasury Market. It was heavily sold as Trump's tariffs rattled confidence in U.S. assets and leadership. After a Tokyo inflation rate that was higher than expected, Japanese yields increased along the curve.
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Dollar and stocks are both on the rise this week as a result of hints about tariff relief
Investors focused on signs that the U.S., China and other countries were ready to end their trade war. The dollar rose for the first time in over a month. U.S. Futures are also rising after Alphabet, the parent company of Google and tech giant Alphabet, beat profit expectations. It also reaffirmed AI expenditure targets. This pushed its shares up by nearly 5% after-hours and pulled along other peers. European futures increased by 0.6%, while FTSE Futures were up by 0.2%. Overnight, Wall Street investors brushed aside mixed corporate results. The S&P 500 increased by 2%. The dollar has been beaten by a series of volatile events, including tariff announcements and reversals, and the flight of assets out of the United States. It is now trading at around $1.1330 to a euro and 143.6 Japaneseyen. Eli Lee, Chief Investment Strategist at Bank of Singapore said that the peak of tariff threats is likely to be behind us. Both sides have stated that they will not increase rates above current levels. The tit-for-tat tariffs, which began on April 2, when U.S. president Donald Trump announced hefty import duties, had threatened to stall the trade between two of the world's largest economies. They also prompted concerns about a possible slowdown in growth. The U.S. changed its tone this week and declared that the current situation is unsustainable. China, meanwhile, may exempt some U.S. imported goods from the 125% tariffs, in what could be the most significant sign of Beijing's concern about the potential economic consequences. UNEASY CALM Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 1%, and mainland China’s Shanghai Composite Index and blue-chip CSI300 also saw small gains. The Nikkei 225 index rose 1.8% in Japan on Friday. It has recovered all of its losses following Trump's announcement that the United States would be imposing the highest tariffs it had ever seen. Trump suspended most of these tariffs, with the exception of China, which will have a 10% tariff. In a client note, ING currency analyst Francesco Pesole said that there is a sense among market participants that they can now impose a more favourable stance from the U.S. Government. Investors will seek confirmation of a more optimistic view on U.S. Assets to justify further dollar gains. The U.S. Dollar Index was up 0.5% this week to 99.751. The markets in Australia and New Zealand closed due to a public holiday. The markets were not as calm on the surface. Procter & Gamble cut their forecasts or canceled them due to the increased uncertainty of consumers. Colgate-Palmolive will report earnings before the U.S. opens on Friday. After the close of Asia, BYD in China and Ping An in Japan are also expected to announce their earnings. Gold was steady at $3,349 per ounce, and analysts from Phillip Securities in Singapore noted that the Gold/S&P500 ratio, which is a measure of investor's gloom, had reached its highest level since the bear market driven by the pandemic of 2020. The 10-year yields remained at 4.30%, easing the pressure on the U.S. Treasury Market. It was heavily sold as Trump's tariffs rattled confidence in U.S. assets and leadership. After a Tokyo inflation rate that was higher than expected, Japanese yields increased along the curve.
Andy Home: China tightens its grip on global nickel supplies with Anglo's sale
Anglo American’s sale of its Brazilian Nickel business to China’s MMG Ltd. is a win-win for both companies.
Anglo delivers on its shareholders' promise to simplify its portfolio, and pockets up to $500m.
MMG, a producer of zinc, copper and cobalt, can diversify and grow its geographical footprint by expanding into Brazil.
The market for nickel is one of the few that has shown signs of resilience in the face of a glut.
It's not good news for western countries that want to escape China's tightening of the global nickel supply chains.
China already controls around 75% the refining capacity of Indonesia, which is rapidly emerging as the world's biggest supplier.
China's dominance of the nickel market could grow even more as two other Western producers look to sell their nickel operations because of low prices.
Price Devastation
Anglo's Brazilian assets include two mines and processing plants, with a combined annual capacity of 40,000 tons of nickel.
The two plants produce ferronickel, which is used in the stainless steel industry. This sector consumes the most nickel despite its increasing use in batteries for electric vehicles.
The nickel market in this segment was the first to be affected by the Indonesian production boom. This initially took the form of nickel pig iron, a stainless steel competitor.
These Class II Nickel products are always sold at a lower price than the Class I high purity refined metal that is traded on the London Metal Exchange.
According to MMG's investor presentations on the deal, Indonesia's production boom caused the discount from LME prices to soar from an average of 8.4% in 2001 up to 27.2% by 2023.
The LME was also falling, which was bad news for Class II producers.
According to Macquarie Bank's Jim Lennon, around half of ferronickel production in the world outside of China or Indonesia has been suspended.
CARBON EDGE
Anglo-Brazilian operations is among the survivors.
The nickel price on the London Metal Exchange has fallen to a four-year low of less than $16,000 per tonne.
Anglo's Ferronickel is sold at a higher price than other Class II products because of its superior quality and environmental credentials compared to Indonesian NPI.
The carbon footprint has become more important in the stainless steel sector. Carbon Border Adjustment, a tax on imports with higher carbon content, will be implemented by the European Union next year.
TURNAROUND
The Class II nickel market has turned around, even as the LME Nickel price continues to fall under the weight rising inventories, largely Chinese and Indonesian.
According to MMG, the discount on the LME Nickel price has decreased by an average of 25% in the first half last year. The discount for Anglo nickel material has decreased to 15.9%, down from 20.8% by 2023.
The closure of large capacity in the West, as well as a shift in product mix in Indonesia have both impacted the supply.
Many Indonesian operators switched from producing NPI in the stainless steel sector, to either producing nickel matte or mixed hydroxide in the battery sector.
Macquarie’s Lennon believes that the Class II segment was best balanced in the last year, as the surplus Indonesian imported into the Class I segment.
This glut can be seen in the LME warehouse stock, which has risen by 30,000 tons this year, bringing it to 192 828 tons.
STRATEGIC METAL
MMG believes that the glut of stainless steel will not last past this decade. This is when the combination of a steady increase in global production and a surge in demand for batteries will lead to soaring supply deficits.
The company would be in a good position to reap the benefits if it did. Anglo's Nickel assets are located on the third largest nickel resource in the world, which could transform MMG into the largest producer of the metal outside of Indonesia.
Although the Brazilian operations produce ferronickel at the moment, they could easily be reconfigured into battery components.
China still views nickel as a strategic metal, despite its diminished value in the West.
Vale, a Brazilian company, has announced a $1.4bn impairment on its Thompson Nickel operations in Canada. Vale also launched a review of their business. Thompson nickel is not the only nickel-related asset that could be acquired by Chinese investors.
South32, an Australian miner, also plans to sell off its Cerro Matoso ferronickel operation in Colombia in response to "structural changes in the nickel markets", it stated in its Q4 report for 2024.
These structural changes were brought about by Chinese investments in Indonesia. China is now able to double down on the long-term bet it has made that nickel will still be a key metal in the energy transition due to the supply tsunami and price crash.
The author is a columnist at
(source: Reuters)